Turkish Lira: A Recipe for Disaster?

Published on
September 11th, 2020
Duration
38 minutes


Turkish Lira: A Recipe for Disaster?

The Interview ·
Featuring Michael Nicoletos and John Floyd

Published on: September 11th, 2020 • Duration: 38 minutes

Michael Nicoletos, CIO and co-founder of Appletree Capital, is joined by John Floyd, head of macro strategies at Record Currency Management, to analyze the mounting pressures on the Turkish Lira as well as other emerging market (EM) currencies. Floyd breaks down his bearish thesis on the Turkish Lira (TRY), citing Turkey's deeply negative real rates, dwindling FX reserves, and a banking sector deeply indebted to foreign creditors on a dollar- or euro-denominated basis. Floyd and Nicoletos then discuss the knock-on effects of a Turkish Lira collapse as so many European banks (especially Spanish ones) are heavily exposed to Turkey. Lastly, Floyd shares with Nicoletos the various trades to express this view. Filmed on September 9, 2020. For John Floyd's report, click here: https://rvtv.io/3bMJSMN

Comments

Transcript

  • ML
    Mehdi L.
    16 September 2020 @ 03:28
    would love to hear the a similar point of view on Brazil's BRL
    • jf
      john f.
      23 October 2020 @ 01:54
      See the piece just posted on Brazil, might be of help, great question.
  • DT
    Douglas T.
    5 October 2020 @ 13:39
    This was a really great interview; a very intellectual pursuit that is super enjoyable. There was a thesis, a good discussion on points for and a dialectic for counterpoints (well done by the host), there was how to express the trade, hedging the downside, time horizon, and a premortem that offered items to watch out for. I used to think trading was a game for "Liar's Poker" type individuals. Now I have come to see it as a great intellectual pursuit. I loved this. Keep 'em coming.
  • MW
    McChicken W.
    11 September 2020 @ 12:11
    Turkey ( Erdogan ) is a smart experienced Politician he's in the middle and plays everybody. EU the "Syrian Refugee flow into EU" / USA and Nato Military position / China Agriculture / Russia Military and Agriculture. His downfall may become if he cannot provide a decent living for "his people"
    • DT
      David T.
      11 September 2020 @ 23:44
      :) :) :))) Will see how smart he and Putler are.
    • MW
      McChicken W.
      16 September 2020 @ 13:16
      ....And of course, the Downfall can certainly be Erdogan's massive US$ loans from Turkish Banks, that now probably are at a +500% increase as the Lira has been sinking like a rock
  • TS
    Theodoros S.
    13 September 2020 @ 09:35
    Just one thought. If the DOLLAR sustains and gets appreciated rapidly, then a cheap EURO would not be good for EUROPEAN companies whom 60% of them export their products and services. In that aspect shorting Europe I believe is wrong.
    • AT
      Adelina T.
      15 September 2020 @ 09:22
      A weaker EURO should be especially good for the export focused countries in northern Europe, having their costs in EURO but sell outside Europe in USD. Tourism could of course also benefit but with covid that will take quite some time yet. This will in turn accentuate the north-south differences and challenges.
  • Nv
    Nick v.
    14 September 2020 @ 08:34
    Good summary of the conventional market view
  • JG
    Job G.
    13 September 2020 @ 02:40
    Botox right vs botox wrong. Just can't unsee it now.
  • DT
    David T.
    11 September 2020 @ 23:42
    Turkey is an authoritarian dictatorship of the crazy out of hand reckless imperator. Only dumb ****** investors would invest in Turkey. Erdogan is unpredictable Turkey.
  • DS
    David S.
    11 September 2020 @ 17:57
    Mr. Nicoletos does a great job at asking the right questions and setting the context in the interview. It is interesting when Mr. Floyd complements Mr. Nicoletos for absolutely asking the right questions but fails to answer them. From the transcript: “JOHN FLOYD: I think, Michael, those are all the absolute right questions. I would turn it slightly differently and in some ways, view this as an opportunity, a window of opportunity for Turkey to come out on top here.” When is Turkey going to come out on top? This comment and several non sequiturs confused me during the interview. I am sure that Mr. Floyd is not confused and wish him success on his trade. DLS
    • jf
      john f.
      11 September 2020 @ 21:19
      DLS that is a very fair critique and was an attempt on my part to be politically sensitive while drawing a contrast to countries like Italy that are in a currency straight jacket and can not pull that lever. While at the same time recognizing the very large output gaps created by the demand destruction that will mask some of the inflationary pass through of FX depreciation.
  • JR
    Jacob R.
    11 September 2020 @ 07:55
    Please could you comment on the specifics of the call spread? Is the option on UUP ETF or DX futures or something else?
    • jf
      john f.
      11 September 2020 @ 13:46
      A good part of the overall theme is taking stock of the macro landscape and evolving narrative and knowing where to play good defense. In terms of offense and specifically call spreads the 3m-6m time period focused on long US dollar exposure allows time for the trade to develop and maximizes the utilization of market pricing on the volatility curve at the moment. But, the key opportunities move well beyond the US dollar and extend to European banks, front ends of global yield curves, credit default swaps, and relative sovereign yield spreads in places like Spain, Italy, and France compared to Germany and the US.
    • JK
      John K.
      11 September 2020 @ 16:05
      Great question I was wondering the same because it’s hard to get try/usd exposure

Mark Yusko

Morgan Creek Capital Management, Co- Founder, CEO, & CIO

Mark Yuskois the Founder, CEO and Chief Investment Officer of Morgan Creek Capital Management. He is also the Managing Partner of Morgan Creek Digital Assets. Morgan Creek Capital Management was founded in 2004 and currently manages close to $2 billion in discretionary and non-discretionary assets. Prior to founding Morgan Creek, Mr. Yusko was CIO and Founder of UNC Management Company (UNCMC), the Endowment investment office for the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. Before that, he was Senior Investment Director for the University of Notre Dame Investment Office.Mr. Yusko has been at the forefront of institutional investing throughout his career. An early investor in alternative asset classes at Notre Dame, he brought the Endowment Model of investing to UNC, which contributed to significant performance gains for the Endowment. The Endowment Model is the cornerstone philosophy of Morgan Creek, as is the mandate to Invest in Innovation. Mr. Yusko is again at the forefront of investing through Morgan Creek Digital Assets, which was formed in 2018. Morgan Creek Digital is an early stage investor in blockchain technology, digital currency and digital assets through the firm’s Venture Capital and Digital Asset Index Fund.Mr. Yusko received a BA with Honors from the University of Notre Dame and an MBA in Accounting and Finance from the University of Chicago.

Anthony Scaramucci

SkyBridge Capital, Founder & Co-Managing Partner

Prior to founding SkyBridge in 2005, Scaramucci co-founded investment partnership Oscar Capital Management, which was sold to Neuberger Berman, LLC in 2001. Earlier, he was a vice president in Private Wealth Management at Goldman Sachs & Co. In 2016, Scaramucci was ranked #85 in Worth Magazine’sPower 100: The 100 Most Powerful People in Global Finance. In 2011, he received Ernst & Young’s “Entrepreneur of the Year –New York” Award in the Financial Services category. Anthony is amember of the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), vice chair of the Kennedy Center Corporate Fund Board, a board member of both The Brain Tumor Foundation and Business Executives for National Security (BENS), and a Trustee of the United States Olympic & Paralympic Foundation. He was a member of the New York City Financial Services Advisory Committee from 2007 to 2012. In November 2016, he was named to President-Elect Trump’s 16-person Presidential Transition Team Executive Committee. In June 2017, he wasnamed the Chief Strategy Officer of the EXIM Bank. He served as the White House Communications Director for a period in July 2017. Scaramucci, a native of Long Island, New York, holds a Bachelor of Arts degree in Economics from Tufts University and a Juris Doctor from Harvard Law School.

Michael Saylor

MicroStrategy, Co-Founder

Mr. Saylor is a technologist, entrepreneur, business executive, philanthropist, and best-selling author. He currently serves as Chairman of the Board of Directors and Chief Executive Office of MicroStrategy, Inc. (MSTR). Since co-founding the company at the age of 24, Mr. Saylor has built MicroStrategy into a global leader in business intelligence, mobile software, and cloud-based services. In 2012, he authoredThe Mobile Wave: How Mobile Intelligence Will Change Everything, which earned a spot onThe NewYork TimesBest Sellers list. Mr. Saylor attended the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, receiving an S.B. in Aeronautics and Astronautics and an S.B. in Science, Technology, and Society.

Alex Saunders

Nugget's News, Founder & CEO

Alex Saunders is the founder and CEO of Nugget’s News, a digital media company focused on all things crypto. Alex has been captivated by cryptocurrency since 2012 and in 2017 he began educating globally on the benefits of cryptocurrency and how to safely acquireit. Nugget’s News has been listed as a top-20 podcast by Business Insider, ShapeShift and Lifehacker and has over 120k YouTube subscribers with 9 million total views.Alex is also heavily focused on his cryptocurrency education platform Collective Shift which currently serves over 4,500 members. provides his unique perspectives by utilising his expertise in fundamental analysis, technical analysis and market sentiment. He is working towards his mission of making it easier for everyone to understand the financial world.

James Putra

TradeStation Crypto, Inc., Sr. Director of Product Strategy

James helped launch TradeStation Crypto’s offeringwhichutilizesa true online brokerage model that self-directed investors and traders have come to expect for equities, futures,and foreign currency markets. He is a reputed crypto asset specialist and blockchain thought leader focused on helping people find innovativeways to participate in this space. He is active in the blockchain community with speaking engagements, TV appearances and mentoring.James has over 15 years of experience in the Fintech industry.

Raoul Pal

Real Vision, Co-Founder & CEO

Raoul Pal is the Co-Founder and CEO of Real Vision, the world’s pre-eminent financial media platform, which helps members understand the complex world of finance, business, and the global economy. Real Vision members also have access to Real Vision Crypto, a cryptocurrency and digital assets video channelwatched by over 80,000 people.In addition, Raoul has been publishing Global Macro Investor since January 2005 to provide original, high quality, quantifiable and easily readable research for the global macro investment community hedge funds, family offices, pension funds and sovereign wealth funds. It draws on his considerable 31 years of experience in advising hedge funds and managing a global macro hedge fund. Global Macro Investor has one of the very best, proven track records of any newsletter in the industry, producing extremely positive returns in eight out of the last twelve years. He retired from managing client money at the age of 36 in 2004 and now lives in the tiny Caribbean island of Little Cayman in the Cayman Islands. Previously he co-managed the GLG Global Macro Fund in London for GLG Partners, one of the largest hedge fund groups in the world. Raoul moved to GLG from Goldman Sachs where he co-managed the hedge fund sales business in Equities and Equity Derivatives in Europe. In this role, Raoul established strong relationships with many of the world’s pre-eminent hedge funds, learning from their styles and experiences. Other stop-off points on the way were NatWest Markets and HSBC, although hebegan his career by training traders in technical analysis.

Peter McCormack

What Bitcoin Did, Journalist

Peter McCormack is a full timejournalist/podcaster covering topics such as Freedom, Human Rights, Censorship and Bitcoin. Peter created and hosts the What Bitcoin Did Podcast, a twice-weekly Bitcoin podcast where he interviews experts in the world of Bitcoin development, privacy, investment and adoption. Launched in November of 2017, the podcast has grown to over 100 episodes with a guest list that is a testament to the diversity of knowledge and opinions that represent the broader Bitcoin community. Expanding his growing list of humaninterest recordings, documentaries and films Peter has recently launched theDefiancepodcast andDefianceTV.

Caitlin Long

Avanti Financial Group, Founder & CEO

22-year Wall Street veteran who has been active in bitcoin and blockchain since 2012. In 2018-20 she led the charge to make her native state of Wyoming an oasis for blockchain companies in the US, where she helped Wyoming enact 20 blockchain-enabling laws. From 2016-18 she jointly spearheaded a blockchain project for delivering market index data to Vanguard as chairman and president of Symbiont, an enterprise blockchain start-up. Caitlin ran Morgan Stanley’s pension solutions business (2007-2016), heldsenior roles at Credit Suisse (1997-2007) and began her career at Salomon Brothers (1994-1997). She is a graduate of Harvard Law School (JD, 1994), the Kennedy School of Government (MPP, 1994) and the University of Wyoming (BA, 1990).

Hunter Horsley

Bitwise Asset Management, CEO

Hunter Horsley is Chief Executive Officer of Bitwise Asset Management. Prior to Bitwise, he was a product manager at Facebook, working on advertiser products including the multibillion-dollar sponsored content ecosystem and ad breaks in videos. Before Facebook, Horlsey was a product manager at Instagram, responsible for multiple advertising products generating several hundred million dollars of revenue. He is a graduate of the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania, with a B.S. in economics. Recently, Horsley was named a member of Forbes’ 2019 “30 Under 30” list.

Luke Gromen

Forest For The Trees, Founder & President

Luke Gromen has 25 years of experience in equity research, equity research sales, and as a macro/thematic analyst.He is the founder and president of macro/thematic research firm FFTT, LLC, which he founded in early 2014 to address and leverage the opportunity he saw created by applying what clientsand former colleagues consistently described as a “unique ability to connect the dots” during a time when he saw an increasing “silo-ing” of perspectives occurring on Wall Street and in corporate America.FFTT caters to institutions and sophisticated individuals by aggregating a wide variety of macroeconomic, thematic and sector trends in an unconventional manner to identify investable developing economic bottlenecks for his clients.Prior to founding FFTT, Luke was a founding partner of Cleveland Research Company, where he worked from 2006-14.At CRC, Luke worked in sales and edited CRC’s flagship weekly thematic research summary piece (“Straight from the Source”)for the firm’s clients.Prior to that,Luke was a partner at Midwest Research, where he worked in equity research and sales from 1996-2006.While in sales, Luke was a founding editor of Midwest’s widely-read weekly thematic summary (“Heard in the Midwest”) for the firm’s clients, in whichhe aggregated and combined proprietary research from Midwest with inputs from other sources.Luke Gromen holds a BBA in Finance and Accounting from the University of Cincinnati and received his MBA from Case Western Reserve University.He earned the CFA designation in 2003.

Meltem Demirors

CoinShares, Chief Strategy Officer

Meltem Demirors is Chief Strategy Officer of CoinShares, an investment firm that manages billions in assets on behalf of a global investor base, and is a trusted partner to investors and entrepreneurs navigating the digital asset ecosystem. Meltemoversees the firm’s managed strategies group and its New York office and leads corporate development. Previously, she was part of the founding team of Digital Currency Group. As a veteran investor in the digital currency space, she has invested in over 250 companies in the ecosystem. Meltem is passionate about education and advocacy, and teaches the Oxford Blockchain Strategy Programme and co-chairs the WEF Cryptocurrency Council.