What the Election Outcome Means for Markets and the Economy

Published on
November 9th, 2020
Duration
54 minutes


What the Election Outcome Means for Markets and the Economy

The Interview ·
Featuring David Metzner

Published on: November 9th, 2020 • Duration: 54 minutes

As the dust settles and the smoke clears, Americans and the rest of the world are getting a clearer picture of who will be in control of the U.S. government over the next two to four years. Some questions still remain, but as we gain more clarity over the next few weeks and months, focus will shift from trying to determine who will be in office to the question of what the results mean for markets and the global economy. In this interview with Ed Harrison, David Metzner, managing partner at ACG Analytics, breaks down what the election results mean for infrastructure spending, COVID responses and the potential for lockdowns, and the size and speed of any potential stimulus measures. Metzner and Harrison also discuss the likelihood of increased antitrust regulation, deficit spending, and why Metzner thinks trade protectionism and China relations will be one of the lasting legacies of Trump's presidency. Filmed on November 5, 2020. Key Learnings: Although official results were not in at the filming of this piece, the key outcomes of the 2020 election seem to be clear. These results will have huge impacts on policy, markets, and the economy. Chiefly, the size of stimulus will likely be smaller with a split legislature, deficits will matter again as Republicans look to focus on core conservative values post-Trump, and antitrust regulation could spell trouble for the market's big tech darlings.

Comments

Transcript

  • GB
    Gary B.
    21 November 2020 @ 13:29
    Can you have guests silence their email or whatever is dinging throughout the presentation? Otherwise, a very balanced and informative guest!
  • GH
    Guy H.
    9 November 2020 @ 14:26
    Nate Silver doesn't conduct polls he just interprets them. Polls were pretty mixed and polling error again meant Biden's chances were overestimated. Might be a little early in the final count to be conclusive about exactly how bad or otherwise polls were. Silver's modelling was spot on in 2018. While the two GA senate run-offs obviously favour GOP, it might also be wise to hold off pronouncing winners and losers for now. This election has a similar feel to 2018 in that the more votes were counted the clearer the D landslide became. In the unlikely event Ds take both GA senate runoffs, other things equal they would hold the trifecta. Then they'd be a nuked filibuster away from universal healthcare, new voting rights act, possible expanded courts and a host of other stuff. Nuking the filibuster would be a risky strategy, but in the Trump era are norms even relevant any more?
    • LS
      L S.
      13 November 2020 @ 19:53
      Silver is a fraud and a liar. We have the data on him, we know what he says, we know how bad he is and how he has sold out. We knew this BEFORE you guys who act like you are just finding this out. Pathetic stuff.
  • HR
    Humberto R.
    9 November 2020 @ 19:47
    Thank you David for schooling Ed on how Trump not only talks tough on China, but put in place and implemented policies to reshore jobs, block China tech, etc, etc, etc. These things take time, and when the emotionally un-adjusted media spends 4 years making life impossible for Trump, lets just say one man can't do everything instantly. It would be great if Ed's blue bias didn't come through so often during interviews.
    • EH
      Edward H. | Real Vision
      10 November 2020 @ 17:32
      1. I am not a Democrat. It's sad I have to say that. As your own bias makes it necessary 2. I agree Trump only talks tough on China. 3. China is taking advantage of the global trading system 4. Post-Covid, bipartisan support in the US, amongst the Five Eyes, and in Europe for cracking down on China has increased. 5. Likely Biden will continue to look to act against China. He may be tougher than Trump, especially if Brainard is in reasury
    • EH
      Edward H. | Real Vision
      10 November 2020 @ 17:38
      Also, David is a friend. He wasn't 'schooling' me, Humberto. He was explaining his view on what's likely to happen.
    • PB
      PHILLIP B.
      10 November 2020 @ 21:42
      This is a shit comment. Go post over at ZH.
    • LS
      L S.
      13 November 2020 @ 19:51
      It's silly to say Trump only talks tough. He did many things that challenged China, why else were they perturbed? What other US politicians even MENTIONED China re: trade, shadiness, stealing IP, etc. None, let alone DOING anything about it. The fact that this is ignored by smart people shows me a lot, and really worries me.
  • DS
    David S.
    10 November 2020 @ 00:53
    As head of the Senate during President Obama's second term, Mitch McConnell followed the scorched-earth policy regarding any of the Democratic agenda. He will follow the same policy now. The angrier the voters are in the next presidential election the better the chances are for the Republicans to win the White House. This will be the definition of a Pyrrhic Victory for America. DLS
    • sh
      steve h.
      10 November 2020 @ 17:18
      Go Mitch block every thing that biden the crook tries to pass
    • LF
      Liam F.
      10 November 2020 @ 21:45
      Steve H with another ad hominem attack; this time on the President Elect. Do you have ANY evidence of ANY crimes which Joe Biden has committed? Or are you just spewing the misleading Trumpian / Fox / Q-Anon conspiracy theories here?
    • LS
      L S.
      13 November 2020 @ 19:49
      We have all the evidence in the world. Smoking guns left and right. If I listed them, you'd still deny reality (CSpan interview extorting Ukraine, Bobulinski, Chinese bank buyoffs for $1 billion, etc.).
  • PP
    Patrick P.
    10 November 2020 @ 04:54
    David..."I don't believe in election fraud" WHAT? Do you believe that the FBI is on the up and up also? Do you believe that the Clinton Foundation was a charity also? I could go on and on but I think you get the drift, or do you?
    • DS
      David S.
      10 November 2020 @ 07:22
      Patrick P. - I am surprised how many of my dear friends believe in conspiracy theories. Being skeptical - David Hume- I feel all is not what it appears or as presented on either side. The human ego itself destroys most real conspiracies. Fake conspiracy theories are so much more fun, as they cannot be disproved. They, therefore, go on and on to explain that which we wish were not true on both sides. DLS
    • PB
      PHILLIP B.
      10 November 2020 @ 21:37
      Is this sarcasm?
    • DS
      David S.
      11 November 2020 @ 08:30
      PHILLIP B. - Part is sarcasm. I just cannot believe that so many of my fellow citizens choose to believe conspiracy theories that even a modicum of an investigation would show is completely impossible. They hear it one place. Then they hear it another place. Then a friend repeats it. Then they really believe someone is selling body parts from the basement of a pizza palor that does not have a basement. This is why Plato did not believe in a democracy. When citizens choose to be emotional, they loose their ability to reason. The representative democracy moderated this tendency until recently. Now the representatives willingly choose to promote the fabrications of the other inmates. This is a critical moment. Can we return to reason or surrender to a dictatorship? DLS
    • LS
      L S.
      13 November 2020 @ 19:48
      Patrick , it's all in a name, bro. Look deeper, it's actually not hard to figure out.
  • MB
    Michael B.
    11 November 2020 @ 11:27
    As Phillip B state, its good to have another perspective which I see as overly optimistic but as Patrick P mentions some very important facts have been left out. Biden is already pushing for the Green new deal which will massively change everything. He has already said mask mandates & other drastic measures. Radicals have far too much influence & Kamila is a radical socialist, just look at her track record, what she has said & done. Rejoining Paris climate accord is effectively giving up governance to the UN. Dont believe what politician say, research the backgrounds and implications of what these things can imply. Then there is AOC who is pushing to have people who served under Trump to suffer and several Bernie Sanders followers have pushed for re education camps. I thought these ideas only belong in China & USSR.
    • LS
      L S.
      13 November 2020 @ 19:47
      That's why it has been ridiculous for market guys and investors to sit idly on the side and act like the modern left isn't fringe or a big deal. They are either in on it or benefit from it, elite-wise. It's really sad. Then they get mad at us, Michael, when we point out all the destructive things these types do with their policies and lies.
  • WS
    William S.
    9 November 2020 @ 17:45
    Don't see McConnell budging on anything...he is immune for the next 6 yrs. Best is to kick him to the curb for a couple of years.
    • GH
      Guy H.
      9 November 2020 @ 18:43
      Lot of static analysis going on. No-one much talking about things like what does the full Mueller report actually contain, who is implicated in NRA funding muck and the zillion other scandals passed off as fake news over the past five years. Hard to believe everything Wapo and NYT have reported is fake. Plenty of odour floating around Elaine Chao. Maybe it all gets swept under the rug - but maybe not. The Benghazi investigation caused plenty of damage and the House has two years at least to investigate with subpoena power and a functioning DOJ. We've all got used to a toothless congress and a "Barrified" DOJ. That changes 2021.
    • DS
      David S.
      10 November 2020 @ 02:18
      It may be time to disbar AG Barr also -DC 's job. It is time to proceed with normal democratic systems instead of trail by press. We need to return to the rule of law with reasonable decorum. Not firing people just to get even. DLS
    • sh
      steve h.
      10 November 2020 @ 17:20
      wish David S had a brain.... Not
    • LF
      Liam F.
      10 November 2020 @ 20:57
      @Steve H: Pretty crappy ad hominem attack on David S. I read his comments and always find them measured and well argued. Why don't you try using YOUR brain to construct a well-reasoned argument against David's positions? I'm sick of these Trump-like rants from entitled punks. Knock it off!
    • DS
      David S.
      11 November 2020 @ 08:43
      steve h. - I am getting older. I am trying to increase the number of grey cells all the time. So far I find krill oil and micro-brews to be helpful. Any other suggestions? DLS
  • PB
    PHILLIP B.
    10 November 2020 @ 21:50
    Great to have yet another perspective on the goings on. Valuable. Would be happy to have David Metzner back on the platform again in 2021.
  • JB
    Jack B.
    9 November 2020 @ 23:21
    I would enjoy an interview with Mr. Metzner every month to learn insights of the DC/Swamp - information I can't get from any US media companies today.
    • PB
      PHILLIP B.
      10 November 2020 @ 21:41
      I can get information from US media companies. Try. Work harder at it. Fight through giving up. Subscribe to more services. Aside from structural under-education of many who achieved a secondary-school level of education, anyone else doing fairly well, and who might consider themselves fairly decently educated, there is no excuse to be ignorant.
  • mp
    mitchell p.
    9 November 2020 @ 18:37
    Can we tell guests to mute their email notifications during interviews? It is distracting to hear. Enjoyed listening to this otherwise. Thank you.
    • PB
      PHILLIP B.
      10 November 2020 @ 01:46
      It's real.
  • JL
    Jonathan L.
    9 November 2020 @ 10:32
    Thank you both for your views from inside the beltway. Mr Metzner was impressively informed. I hope his idea comes to pass, that Biden and McConnell being of the same era and both career negotiators can get DC moving on some bigger issues like infrastructure. His notion of Amazon functioning almost as a public utility is spot on too - unbelievable infrastructure and credit to them as a company.
    • AP
      Anne P.
      9 November 2020 @ 19:05
      If Amazon operates as a public utility, it ought to be regulated like the many utility public utilities we have.
  • WS
    William S.
    9 November 2020 @ 17:41
    Organization efforts in GA are what flipped it after 28 yrs....could expect same in Senate races...will be a nail biter -
  • RM
    Russell M.
    9 November 2020 @ 17:41
    Great political analysis. Much appreciated!
  • MD
    Michael D.
    9 November 2020 @ 16:30
    Did a different person write the transcript of this interview? The transcripts are usually good, but this one was nearly unreadable.
  • RM
    Russell M.
    9 November 2020 @ 15:40
    Government is afraid of too much power in private hands, especially where the power can affect politics like FB and Google.