When Geopolitics Moves Markets

Published on
September 2nd, 2019
47 minutes

When Geopolitics Moves Markets

The Interview ·
Featuring David Metzner

Published on: September 2nd, 2019 • Duration: 47 minutes

David Metzner, managing partner at ACG Analytics, sits down with Real Vision's Ed Harrison to discuss influential geopolitical events around the world. He breaks down the trade war between the United States and China, international efforts to restructure debt, and the impact of Latin America on the global markets - specifically mentioning Puerto Rico, Argentina and Brazil. Metzner and Harrison also consider the possibility of the Trump administration privatizing Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Filmed on August 14, 2019 in New York.



  • BT
    Brian T.
    3 September 2019 @ 23:59
    This guy reminds me to re-read "Superforecasting". I highly doubt his forecasts will prove to be accurate. He's just too optimistic when the evidence suggests he will be wrong. I'd like to see a forecasting record for ACG; I'm skeptical but open minded to be wrong here. My sense is he's more of a lobbyist based on his positioning. Connected DC people are generally not allowed to tell the truth, or they will be shunned by those they deal with. Interviewer did a great job though.
    • DS
      David S.
      4 September 2019 @ 04:55
      Well said. DLS
    • CS
      Christopher S.
      8 September 2019 @ 08:21
      "Superforecasting" is a great book! Funnily enough I read that while travelling in China a few years ago. I try to read at least one book that deals with risk and human misconceptions and probability every 6 months or so.
  • PT
    Patrick T.
    2 September 2019 @ 20:33
    Puerto Rico has 74 billion in bond debt & 49 billion in unfunded liabilities. Population in PR is 3.195 million. Most Puerto Ricans have minimum wage jobs. No.. the debt cannot be paid off. Bolsonaro "has people that have pledged to be anti-corrupt.." I'm reassured.
    • DS
      David S.
      5 September 2019 @ 05:41
      Thanks for the information. DLS
  • AB
    Anne-Marie B.
    4 September 2019 @ 10:31
  • PB
    Pieter B.
    4 September 2019 @ 05:20
    Ed & David, this was really great! Thanks a lot!
  • VY
    Vincent Y.
    4 September 2019 @ 05:08
    I don't think he understands how China thinks and why China is acting this way. Without understanding China's mindset, strategy, and limitations, it is not likely to come out with a rational approach to describe the hash reality right now. In my humble opinion, there will not be any meaningful deal at all. It is going to be a long campaign and the train had left the station long ago. Americans need to study their rivalry more thoroughly. A lot of people in Washington don't understand how their enemy thinks. Fortunately, things are getting better after Trump.
  • SA
    Stephen A.
    3 September 2019 @ 23:41
    Guys like this have been misleading investors for 18 months. Total panda hugger (people that always take China's side) perspective. "Trump and Xi are gonna meet like big men and hash out a deal" as if the US is not a 300 million person country with 3 huge branches of government. I mean Trump is so powerless he can't even staff half his administration. He has people moonlighting too jobs because his candidates can't get through a GOP (!) senate. What is this guy smoking? There is no Trump-Xi deal coming anytime soon. China was elevated to strategic adversary in the 2017 National Security Strategy document alongside Russia. Have you been noticing the amount of sanctions on Russians over the past 5 years? The same thing is coming for China for the China South Sea militarization or any Hong Kong transgressions. That is what it means to be a "strategic adversary". The American money pot stops flowing. So no, there won't be a "skinny" deal now or anytime soon. And even if Trump does make the huge political mistake of a "skinny" deal (which will wreck his thinning base even further) any trade agreement has to pass through the House and as you can see, Trump can't even get USMCA done. Why can't he get it done? Why would Pelosi give him a political victory before the election? And if Trump is gone in 15 months, Democrats get to write the new NAFTA or the new China deal, so why compromise today? The guy is very connected but he tells American investors what they want to hear, not what is going to happen.
  • KC
    Kirk C.
    3 September 2019 @ 12:11
    Always amused by the theft of IP when greedy idiot CEOs just gave it away for access to China's market - how is that theft??? Calling that theft is just an attempt to get those CEOs off the hook for their gross incompetence.
    • CB
      C B.
      3 September 2019 @ 20:45
      Looks like a few CEOs in this comments section :)
  • AS
    Anthony S.
    3 September 2019 @ 19:52
    Good topics thanks! looking forward to some follow up on FNMA / FMCC
  • DS
    David S.
    3 September 2019 @ 18:46
    The tactic de jure without a goal or strategy will not win the Chinese trade war or any other. It will create chaos and dissolve old alliances. Maybe, however, that is the goal! DLS
  • FA
    Frank A.
    3 September 2019 @ 15:30
    I agree with Cecilia Malmstrom's comment where she said that the WTO is there to protect "market" economies. China is not a market economy. That must/should change to be allowed to stay in WTO framework Pledging to protect "some" IP is a non-starter. All must be protected and shareholders should demand that from CEO's doing business in China. . His comment on the fact that municipal or state debt should be honored before pensions is ludicrous. Pension are a form of deferred wages. They are obligations for service already rendered. There is absolutely no way he is correct in his weak assumption. Buyers of bonds should do a lot more due diligence than just relying on Moody's or S&P.... Capital doesn't have to finance Illinois or Argentina 100 year bonds......but it did and always does.
  • BE
    Benjamin E.
    2 September 2019 @ 17:36
    I could hear these 2 talk all day. High quality educational material. This is the type of material that makes Real Vision worth subscribing for. Any more Zuaiter/Hindery, MSNBC type globalist shilling, that offers nothing tactical or educational to help investors protect and steward our resources and I'll be going back to free youtuber status.
    • PP
      Patrick P.
      3 September 2019 @ 01:30
      Ben ... you forgot to mention the political flogging from those two... that was not at all interesting or informative.
    • DS
      David S.
      3 September 2019 @ 04:53
      Mr. Harrison did not promote a political agenda. He works hard to bring out the opinion of his guests. DLS
  • EC
    Earl C.
    3 September 2019 @ 04:21
    Not trying to be cute but imho it would have been better if Dave was interviewing Ed.
  • CB
    Chris B.
    2 September 2019 @ 20:17
    Guy isn't shy about name dropping...
  • ma
    mary a.
    2 September 2019 @ 20:04
    I keep scratching my head over the general tendency to refer to "privatizing" Freddie and Fannie and then explaining that they are private, but in conservatorship with the public shareholders getting no dividend or return of capital. Feels a bit misleading especially to people who don't understand the structure. No one discussed what the current shareholders holdings would be valued at. What is the answer?
  • DS
    David S.
    2 September 2019 @ 19:52
    Mr. Metzner seems to have many dogs in the hunt for government money. It is important for Mr. Harrison, who I respect, to bring in one or more people to give non-government bailout plans. I do like that Mr. Metzner is honest about his company's financial interests in many of these proposals. DLS
  • DS
    David S.
    2 September 2019 @ 19:38
    I believe that Germany is a country of renters and savers. The problem with Fannie and Freddie is, was and always will be Congress. Is it possible that the American banking/mortgage system could handle the mortgage market without Fannie and Freddie? The conservator should slowly drain off the current mortgage book and let the private sector provide the risk analysis and rates. Forget attenuating market slowdowns. They will just lose all the capital the tax payers give them while some wall street firms make a fortune. Get a grip. This is where capitalism is suppose to work. DLS
  • DH
    Daniel H.
    2 September 2019 @ 06:51
    It comes to a stop half way through. Backing up 15 sec to allow a buffer does not help.
    • SP
      Stuart P.
      2 September 2019 @ 08:11
      Mine worked fine
    • tr
      tom r.
      2 September 2019 @ 19:17
      Excellent interview and the best interpretation of geo politics I've heard. Impressive guy!
  • PJ
    Paul J.
    2 September 2019 @ 18:20
    I fell asleep.
  • GC
    George C.
    2 September 2019 @ 17:47
    Listened to part of it and didn't learn anything new. Cut my losses.
  • GP
    Geoff P.
    2 September 2019 @ 17:33
    Interesting interview, but a lot of storytelling, humble brags and opinion being presented as fact (fiat). For instance: 'No dissent in the White House'. Hmm.. Woodward's book suggest otherwise. Mattis would suggest otherwise. Many of those recently through the revolving door would also disagree. Makes it hard to take some of his comments at face.
  • EB
    Eric B.
    2 September 2019 @ 16:25
    Why such a big delay from recording to publish? Good interview.
  • DS
    David S.
    2 September 2019 @ 15:23
    It is
    • DS
      David S.
      2 September 2019 @ 15:48
      It is hard to be politically correct and objective. I did learn more background about President Trump, however how many White House aides will be allowed to talk to you if you say anything negative about White House policy or President Trump. I agree that the Chinese will come to an agreement when it is their interest and easily broken. Everyone will celebrate great victories, but no real change. Just like great victories in North Korea and Russia. DLS
  • ag
    anthony g.
    2 September 2019 @ 14:25
    Thanks a rather good interview
  • DF
    Daniel F.
    2 September 2019 @ 09:43
    Anyone has any recommendations for reading to train oneself in understanding geopolitics?