Comments
Transcript
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JRTalk about legendary coaches..... I hope you guys realize how much the wealth in monetary gains you provide pales in comparison to the wealth of knowledge your viewers gain. Knowledge can never be taken away. I feel rich. Thank you for all you do!
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DPJack is easily the worst script reader I have ever heard.
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STI learnt more in 58 minutes than the £15k in student loans for a 4 year degree
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WBI recommend that you watch Hedgeye "Macro Show" with Keith McCullough. It's very informative and funnier than late night TV. I pay $2,000 per year, but you don't have to.
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ERthanks for the interview it was very interesting and make me think more
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moSLV is also a massive opportunity
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OSA great interview with Keith.
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XFAlot going on here I thought it was excellent Thank you....
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MAhey Raoul, in chapter 5 you guys talked about shorting stocks or buying puts. I'm in my 20 and I have around 5000. do you recommend that we buy put or short sell Apple, google, and Facebook ? I understand that is a high risk move but if you were in my please would you do it to grew your capital fast. from what I have read and learned is the in bear markets volatility can help make huge gains specially if we have liquidity problems some stocks will be sold fast for that liquidity. dropping the price fast. can you please just give a little guidance on what stocks you would like to either short or buy buts on and which way is better?
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IPHello one question: for someone who can't use futures or options to short the market, would it be ok to use short ETFs ? I'm always worried that they may blow up or something like what happened this month to risk parirty or to the junior GDX with leverage....
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VBWhat is the 'Old Wall'? Glass-Steagal?
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PSSomebody's buying stocks in a massive, deliberate and irrational manner. I really HOPE those are private investors but I doubt it. With the FED's renovated standing facilities, what's to prevent a 'sympathetic' partner from buying shitloads of one or more stocks/ETF's, and having those new owners using their new assets as collateral in a pending FED transaction? (i.e. effectively circumventing the legal limits of the FED?)
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JIAre all ETFs shit in the current scenario? Do we think about selling them, holding cash until the real shit hits the fan... then, hopefully hit an upswing? After this first big dip, there is hope in the "herd's eyes" with the dip- but it will get worse- thinking about selling my equities that are managed by zombies then picking smart companies with the cash and investing after the market is in tatters later... Smart or dumb move? Classic mistake? I'm well diversified, but would like to mitigate the % that will inevitably take a bigger hit soon- Algorithm run funds.
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bt219 ceo's step down or clapped in Jan, 1300 ceo's out in the last year! google-larry page, sergery brin. on and on Great talk! MORE PLEASE opportunely knocks....lets go....
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CVIncredible content.
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GKChapter 6 -what should the average investor do? Although I enjoyed the macro perspectives discussed, Keith’s response to this question was pure BS. He said nothing meaningful or actionable. Raoul, you asked an excellent and timely question and Keith danced around it with a few poorly placed platitudes Disappointing☹️. But I’m still a big fan of Real VIsion.
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WMThe US dollar and all fiat currencies are now being debased by governments everywhere to extent that has never happened in history and with incredible speed. Playing around with the US dollar seems like a big waste of time. Get into real assets especially silver, platinum, gold...but also really high quality stocks with superior finances to get through this virus recession. Think longer term...it's impossible to pick the exact bottom for something like silver, but the upside over the next few years is truly enormous as governments everywhere fully embrace the Modern Monetary Theory experiment. Their determination to defeat deflation will finally work and $250 trillion in bonds face the double whammy of rising rates and rising defaults.
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tcSo much focus on monetary policy but that's obvious already, it's not the cure. Would like to see more talk on fiscal. What's in store from the legislation coming down?
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MUI'm glad I did not follow Keith advice to short the market today. S&P500 finished 9% up today. Of course, who knows what will happen in the coming days, all bets are off!
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ARImpact on India please?
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RRGreat conversation. I need some help with it. A reading list to give me an understanding of "the cycle", and volatility, and the like. I am right on the edge of my understanding of much of this. Hate to admit it, but it's true.
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BJDear Raoul & Keith, First off I love your content! I am in my early 30's and I have been teaching myself Macro Trading for the last 18 months. Prior to that I was in the real estate business for 10 years and made the switch to learn Macro Trading (no am not a Robinhoody lol) I have been a Real Vision subscriber for about a year & subscribed to Hedgeye about 2 months ago. I watch Hedgeye TV every morning 7am on the dot. I think what you guys do is awesome. Old Wall & the Cramers of the world could take a page out of your book or maybe even a couple. Raoul, I would love to be a part of your Black-List someday (I know I would learn a lot & build on my process). Keith I read your book Diary Of A Hedge Fund Manager & really enjoyed it (Am a Hockey fan too, CO AVS). Honestly the best money I've ever spent was taking a chance and subscribing to both of your webcasts. All the haters out there I got one thing to say to you... Don't hate the players, hate the game. Be well Raoul & Keith! Buck
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YRDid Keith just say Gold became uninvestable in Quad 4? Perhaps the Comex paper market agrees but the physical market CLEARLY disagrees.
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WWI love what Raoul had to say about "current data vs. forward data" ...gem...
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PSRaoul, you are so bullish USD but US will be hit the hardest by the virus and will have to print the most? "Japanese like printing press" but US will print even more, no? Have you considered this and how much does the consideration of "US will be the sickest man (literally)" influences your model?
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TEI'm a Hedgeye subscriber. Combine Raoul and Keith and you will most likely have really good to great investment returns. So happy I found BOTH Hedgeye and RealVision.
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bsFUCKING FANTASTIC. PERIOD.
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VKReally like what you said is "where you are in the cycle".Did the same Raoul quit equities 2018 3rd quarter,got into gold then shorted in March now part cash,part gold. real vision helped.
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RDHow does an instrument like $UUP work into the dollar bullish theme for those not facile playing futures? Or other suggestions for those who believe in the milkshake hypothesis?
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GTWould anyone tell me where Raoul taught trading eurodollar please? as mentioned @ 12 min
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jcGreat conversation. But what about the 6 trillions!!!! no limits helicopter money coming???
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SWGreat to hear it - keep it coming
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STGood interview, thanks, have the guts to short what everyone loves - the FAANG’s
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JPI want me a "fuck bucket"! Sounds like fun!
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ARCan someone translate the trades discussed for an Indian investor?
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CMInstead of watching two uber-Bears pat each other's back, I would find it much more interesting to see RP debate someone who disagrees strongly with his thesis. While i acknowledge the problems in today's economic environment, AFTER the market collapsed, I have begun to purchase stocks 6x EBITDA, 20% FCF yield, 85% recurring revenue that have minimal sensitivity to economic growth, etc. Everything has a price.
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SMWhat does the Old Wall mean?
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MSWow - years after pointing the streaming issue out on Real Vision videos which have no "buffeting" capability... still these videos constantly pausing, despite my 100Mbps connection speed. Makes it PAINFUL to try and watch this. DO SOMETHING ABOUT IT!
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SLExcellent video I'll definitely watch dxy and jpy. Thx Raoul
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JBGreat video glad it was available to the retail battlers. No mention of the effect of unlimited QE and fiscal spending though?
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MANice to see two competitors being able to collaborate in these hard times.
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LOLove watching these guys talk to each other, best real vision content.
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MTas someone that rarely takes 'positions' using stocks outright (unless I want static delta) as buying/selling stocks outright is a very inefficient way to deploy capital. I pretty much use Options exclusively if I may a comment on liquidity. At the time of writing, there are just 50 stocks in the S&P 500 that qualify as having Options with optimal liquidity and even with the following very small list as shown below, I've noticed that during the first 60-90mins of market opening spreads are really wide (>$0.50 and way higher) and only narrow once intial trading period has past. As said at the time of writing the viable Options trading market within the S&P 500 is comprised of just 50 symbols in stocks listed below and 16 most liquid ETF's see below also. AAL AAPL AMD APA BA BAC BMY C CCL CMCSA CSCO CTL CVS DAL DIS DO F FB FCX GE GILD GIS GM HAL HBAN INTC IRM JPM KHC KMI KO M MPC MRO MSFT MU MYL NLSN NVDA NWL OXY PFE SBUX SWN T TWTR VZ WFC WMT XOM ETF's with Liquid Options: EEM EWZ FXI GDX GLD IWM QQQ SLV SPY TLT TQQQ USO VXX XLE XLU XOP
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JAFomo*
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JAGod I love Keith. No domo.
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KLThis is fantastic I'm absolutely fascinated keep it up guys. Go into more depth please on "how does an average guy play this" and also the "slightly savvy guy".
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EOGreat Discussion. I have followed Keith since 2010(?) when he published his book and have been a Hedgeye subscriber for many years. Coach Keith and Raoul have kept me on the correct side of this cycle. Thank you! I remember Kieth discussion and writing about the low implied Vol vs 30 day realized showing epic complacency in Jan which got me thinking and putting on short positions (I wish I had done more). Great work and thank you both!
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dmKeith uses a lot of words, but doesn't say much.
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EKLots of great content to glean. Two insightful pros willing to share. Not mentioned but am awaiting "The Return of Value" headline somewhere soon.
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PDReally enjoyed this!
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SSRaoul Pal and Keith McCullough are the only two people I have been listening to regarding trading and navigating these markets. I watch every single interview they do, and read every single tweet. I am a RV Pro and Hedgeye subscriber. Can't recommend them highly enough. This year so far, I've made the most $$$ from investing. Forever thankful to these two guys. I hope they get loads and loads of paying subscribers out of this. They deserve it. Thank you for everything.
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MHThe technology to change work habits has been there for many years, IMO we where just waiting for a catalyst to trip the move. I thought it would be primarily an economic event, nothing like this.
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BPWhere can I learn more about the 4 Quads Keith is talking about?
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TSBrilliant interview! Maybe a good substitute interview for Keith would be Nassim Taleb. While not as sweet of a disposition as the great Benoit Mandelbrot. Taleb probably knew him as well as anyone.
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MHI thought they'd end run the buying of stocks?!
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PSRaoul please write a book, on that note does anybody have any book recommendations for a book that reads like Raoul trades, as far as macros go?
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IPThank you both for being you. Enough Said :D
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OSBrilliant. I guess it's great when 2 minds reach the same conclusion, but via different means. Let's see how it plays out. Great stuff folks.
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RRTwo favourite people in discussion. What more could you want
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ABHow do you short these stocks in the UK as a retail investor? I don't want to use plus500 for it as it seems to mess you up
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gkSuper Discussion ... Bring Keith back often ...
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FGWonder how some people can create a virtual reality that makes you believe that you "called this one". F***-No. This guy Keith didn't call s***t. He was just pointing to slowing indicators (like quite a few others!) I am exhausted just from watching this ego-massaging-marathon.
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FCGreat content as always! To lighten things up, right around minute 23 and Keith is saying he’s in the chair, there’s a dude in the background walking through the video. Guess Keith isn’t the only one in the office chair.
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TSI do not see how Alphabet and Facebook are good shorts say for a tenor of 2-3 years. I do not get it. On the other hand I believe that they could play an important role in Quad 4 and especially when we are back and going to Quad 1.
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LPI'm the retiree who kept 50% of his wealth in $ cash. I gather that puts me where McCullough would be. Where can I find information about the next quad, when growth and inflation accelerates. I am not going to short stocks, and I'm not sophisticated enough to do Raoul's dollar futures trade. What conservatively works in the next quad?
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WCHi Raul and the team, I've just subscribed after watching everything you guys posted on yt in last 6 months. Managed to get 50% upside thanks to the free materials you and Erik from Macro Voices were putting up. Thanks!
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jhF#ing Epic!
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HCRaoul - how is the Q-ball moving?!!
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MWRaoul, your audio quality is horrible! Please get a microphone & put on headphones :)
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BMIs the harsh language really necessary? Wow
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MHBrilliant....
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KEAwesome interview. Thanks again RV!
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CSTesla up 15% today...the short of a lifetime?
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mkI am based in the UK how do i buy dollars in a cost effective way?
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AHMeh, I am a little bit more constructive. I have put a slight probability that we are closer to a 'near-term' low, if not a permanent low(over the coming month or two). I do see this as shorter duration before we begin a return to normalcy. An interesting comment was when Keith said that this is the greatest rate of change down. What if we see the greatest rate of change back up(not to old levels of economic activity, but up from these lows)and, in addition, the trillions of stimulus. Governments clearly can not let the junk bond market collapse, so that will be "saved" with policy. Who knows...
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JLJust Terrific!!!
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ILGreat insight
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SWanother amazing interview! keep the good work up. what is the old wall conspiracy?
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ASI take issue with Keith's statement in the 27th minute that millennials are seeing people fired for the first time. I am a millennial and I graduated into the Great Recession so this is my second time, I learned whereas my cohorts did not.
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EBRespect Keith's process but he's a brutal interview
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TSHelpful. Thanks.
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CTNeeds Bitcoin (BTC) content.
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LATHANK U!!! So against the grain- Great job!
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tcSub to HE. keith is a smart guy with a very good view. It shows when he's with his peers. His service is good for traders but he really does a disservice to retail. His retail offerings are lousy. Long on talk, poor on performance. Just feeds crumbs and hopes to get upgrades. His model is out of date, like driving by your rearview mirror. Time and money much better spent with RV
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MNWhat is Raoluls twitter handle??? Can we get Keiths ?? Thank you .
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AvSubscribed to both of them, essential for any investor.
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DPStellar discussion!
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ZMLOL. This guy is gold.
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TWFantastic conversation! Please bring Neil Howe on a gain soon too.
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WSNo panic here - listened to you both since getting clobbered 2002/08. Great interview...ever thought of a merger RV/Hedgeye - who needs to monetize? A combo could create some great products that address the ripoff in the wealth mgt business.
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APExcellent as always. RV and Hedgeye are really all you need. I like how Raoul structured his question about advice to different investor styles.
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PLBest quarantine special so far, great to see both the process driven and behaviour side of the analysis of the current situation. Thank you, Raul! Please do invite Keith or Neil back on regular basis!
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TZPlease help on execute the trades! Real Vision could be so much more than just chatting about ideas in videos!
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TZWould be great to have some explanation /educational videos in additional to these conversations on how to execute these trades. We are not pros like you. That would be helpful. Most of us I think watching this and it is great but we don't know what to do with this info so we can't profit out of this. Thanks!
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SpHow do you short trade these stocks as a retail investor in australia? There's CFD's but those seem like they're gamed to insure you can't sustainably win.
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MMTwo great minds. Thank you for your incredible insight.
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GRHad trouble with jargon and inherent assumptions of both.
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AP