“When The Whole Daisy Chain Unwinds”

Published on
April 10th, 2020
Duration
88 minutes


“When The Whole Daisy Chain Unwinds”

The Interview ·
Featuring James Aitken and Raoul Pal

Published on: April 10th, 2020 • Duration: 88 minutes

James Aitken, partner at Aitken Advisors, joins Real Vision CEO Raoul Pal to discuss the intricate relationship between bond and FX markets and how this often overlooked connection is playing out at this critical juncture of the credit cycle. Aitken and Pal put the recently announced central bank policies – remarkably generous swap lines, sweeping repo facilities, and the revival of quantitative easing (QE) – in proper context and analyzes how central banks' commitment to be the "buyers of first resort" will affect cross-currency basis swaps, yields on corporates, and the U.S. dollar. Aitken also describes his investing framework to deploying capital in this unprecedented economic crisis.

Comments

Transcript

  • df
    dwight f.
    16 June 2020 @ 16:29
    His insights are amazing @realvision please interview him again when it's November 2020
  • MW
    Matthew W.
    16 June 2020 @ 09:50
    Classic sell side puffery prose. Those who can, do...
  • VT
    Vincent T.
    5 May 2020 @ 13:01
    Incredible interview!
  • RY
    Roy Y.
    1 May 2020 @ 10:56
    Wow!
  • AH
    Anthony H.
    12 April 2020 @ 04:16
    Best insight for me was that the USD funding dynamic within the Chinese financial system between the corporates and banks - the public/private distinction is often not clear and everything is very controlled and managed from the top, including the flow of USD from one entity of another. The Aug 2015 RMB devaluation event simply facilitated a transfer of USD from the right pocket to the left pocket within the Chinese financial system - it's all one balance sheet. Which makes investing in China challenging in its own right.
    • DL
      Darryn L.
      24 April 2020 @ 06:25
      There’s still a reason they issue $ in the first place so there has to be a counterparty outside China in the equation somewhere.
  • MR
    Michael R.
    23 April 2020 @ 20:41
    Outstanding discussion! Off the charts with such clear-eyed content.
  • LP
    Lionel P.
    17 April 2020 @ 10:20
    Real Vision at it's best
  • AB
    Andy B.
    14 April 2020 @ 00:26
    I genuinely struggle to find anything in this interview that is not consenus. As Hugh Hendry would probably say: “It’s not a minority view to say that it’s advisable to buy defensive assets with strong cashflow. It’s not a minority view to say that a further leg down in stock prices is likely and you should be prepared to digest the drawdown. It’s not a minority view to say that you expect the dollar to fall at some point following the ultra expansive monetary policies adopted by the FED. It’s not a minority view to say the FED should not buy junk bonds. It’s not a minority view the FED will not provide dollar liquidity to China. It’s not a minority view to say you expect inflation to pick up after a couple of quarters. It’s not a minority view to say oil prices will fall further. Hey, let’s be honest, you are not a contrarian!” Chit chatting consensus views. That’s all there is in this video.
    • GD
      Giles D.
      17 April 2020 @ 01:27
      What’s your minority views point then?
  • MG
    Michael G.
    16 April 2020 @ 21:28
    Great
  • DS
    David S.
    12 April 2020 @ 11:23
    Excess leverage always seems to be the third rail for most of the crises in the financial markets, especially after the derivative market appeared. It is important to note that the big banks are still involved in this crisis through leveraging. This will continue if massive leverage is allowed. We cannot socialize all the losses every time. Some of the major leverage players not be not bailed out. Bankruptcy is an important part of capitalism. If we constantly bail them out, there is no fear. DLS
    • DS
      David S.
      15 April 2020 @ 20:49
      Sorry, It should be: Some of the major leverage players should not be bailed out. DLS
  • KS
    Kyle S.
    15 April 2020 @ 14:16
    great interview. loved it.
  • ML
    Mathieu L.
    12 April 2020 @ 13:35
    I have criticized RV in the past but I have to say that this interview was the best I have seen in any network.. The knowledge that James has is incredible. Great work...
    • rj
      rodolfo j.
      15 April 2020 @ 07:15
      Older interviews, 2 years back, were more like this. Search and enjoy them.
  • GL
    G L.
    14 April 2020 @ 14:35
    Good interview - thank you. I think James' insights on funding markets are very strong and helpful in some areas but in other areas perhaps unnecessarily complicated or with overemphasis of certain issues at the expense of the big picture.
  • OK
    Olzhas K.
    14 April 2020 @ 02:34
    brilliant guy
  • PG
    P G.
    14 April 2020 @ 00:54
    The intersection?
  • RI
    R I.
    13 April 2020 @ 01:21
    James is eloquent. Too bad he was wrong about the Fed straight up buying junk bonds.
    • AB
      Andy B.
      13 April 2020 @ 23:45
      That's what happens when you are a sell side guy to the core. Always very eloquent. Always very wrong. No matter how fancy your bookshelves look like.
  • JH
    Jesse H.
    13 April 2020 @ 22:02
    This was absolutely brilliant - by a long shot, one of the more substantive, insightful and original interviews I have seen on RV for some time. Thank you, James & Raoul!
  • BF
    Billy F.
    12 April 2020 @ 04:56
    WOW GENTLEMAN GREAT DAMN VIDEO! EXCELLENT 100%! MY HAND HURTS WRITING SO MUCH! ITS 12:45 PM I'M ON THE EAST COAST I'M GOING TO TAKE A SHOWER THEN TO BED SO I CAN GET BACK UP AT 6AM TO RE WATCH AGAIN TO LEARN STUDY AND HOPEFULLY BETTER MY FAMILY MY SMALL BUSINESS AND OTHERS AROUND ME!! THANK YOU MR RAOUL AND MR JAMES!!
    • BF
      Billy F.
      13 April 2020 @ 04:52
      I WOULD LIKE TO KNOW WHY A DOWN THUMB FOR WANTING TO WATCH LEARN STUDY AND EXECUTE A PLAN ?
    • Hv
      Hannah v.
      13 April 2020 @ 20:22
      My guess is b/c of the ALL CAPS.. it translates to shouting. By all means feel free to use it if you feel this strongly.. but just so as you know, most folks dislike it. I hear you though; it was a stunner of a discussion. Good luck out there:)
  • BP
    Brian P.
    13 April 2020 @ 04:45
    I like the extensive library behind the speaker.
    • Hv
      Hannah v.
      13 April 2020 @ 19:16
      I’m more partial to the extensive liquid stores of the interviewer.
  • GD
    Gabriel D.
    13 April 2020 @ 17:44
    Connecting James' thoughts on Japanese banks using dollars to invest in less than IG credit, and now being exposed to losses and risks they never perceived, would this be a reason for the Fed to buy HYG? In order to not collapse liquidity of Japanese banks? Or because Japanese banks are unwinding these trades and causing undue selloff in high yield? Any thoughts? If Japanese banks regain adequate liquidity, will the buying of HYG cease? What other banking systems are exposed to high yield to such a degree?
  • CV
    Collin V.
    13 April 2020 @ 17:24
    Fantastic!
  • sw
    stefan w.
    13 April 2020 @ 16:03
    Thank you. Particularly thought-provoking were James' insights on China: Chinese banks' ownership of China HY paper, rumored shenanigans with Treasury dumping, and carry trade being conducted by Chinese banks on Yen/USD via Japanese banks. I did however take the bullish statements on now-is-the-time-to-buy-the-quality with a grain of salt, as one must with a seasoned professional of this pedigree. Agree it's absolutely the time to be building the list. Thanks again.
  • CD
    Christopher D.
    13 April 2020 @ 15:59
    I suspect in the transcript it should read "It's like LTCM meets October in '87" rather than "It's like LTCM meets October in '97" LTCM for the highly levered cash-fut basis trade and '87 for the risk parity/portfolio insurance deleverage.
  • HH
    Henri H.
    13 April 2020 @ 08:55
    Fantastic interview!!
  • DG
    Danko G.
    11 April 2020 @ 12:53
    Great interview, no question. But to someone with PhD was also hard to track. I think lot of things could be said in simpler manner, in which Raoul tried few times to lead interview. But no matter what, great things were heard. Congrats !
    • SO
      Shaun O.
      13 April 2020 @ 04:06
      it was hard to follow but I paused it at every concept I did not understand and took notes. needed about a day watching and studying but i learnt so much here. i would not have wanted it any other way. perfect interview imo
  • GR
    Grant R.
    13 April 2020 @ 01:43
    Gun buyers are buying guns, ammo and accessories, most good stuff is out of stock. Thank goodness we still have some recognition of our 2nd amendment rights in some parts of the USA.
  • MC
    Mario C.
    13 April 2020 @ 01:27
    Realvision at its best, Realvision at its core. I used to watch 100% of vids, till Realvision changed to massive vid expansion. Now I barely watch 10%. But as long as the 10% is as good as this video, I will continue to be a subscriber.
  • CH
    Connor H.
    12 April 2020 @ 23:25
    You know an interviewee is intensely interesting when you can only comprehend 50% of the granular what he is explaining, but nonetheless still coming away with the greater sentiment of what he is expressing. BTW anyone have an idea on how you can invest in airports or tollbridge operators?
    • CH
      Connor H.
      12 April 2020 @ 23:28
      Just a great gentleman/mensch as well. Realvision does tend to show professionals on the better side of finance than most of the money managers you read/hear about getting rich as they run their companies/investors into the ground.
  • JV
    Jens V.
    12 April 2020 @ 20:03
    Brilliant. I bought out of the money calls on USDJPY last week. Now I’m buying otm puts as well.. Whatever happens the next 6-12 months I doubt that USDJPY, EURUSD and USDCNH will be close to where they are now after that time. And FX vol is still strangely low.
    • GT
      Gideon T.
      12 April 2020 @ 22:39
      Jens, what platform do you use to trade FX vol/options? Thanks
  • JM
    Jacques M.
    12 April 2020 @ 20:06
    Given the Fed action on Thursday is there any chance of a follow up? Thanks PS top interview and insight on plumbing of markets.
  • SM
    Shivani M.
    10 April 2020 @ 21:08
    Raoul, would you mind typing up a brief paragraph explaining the repo near-crisis? I know James explained it around 8 minutes in, but not in terms that were clear to me. It would be great to hear it in layman's terms.
    • JS
      John S.
      11 April 2020 @ 08:00
      He did an entire presentation on Repo not long ago
    • SM
      Shivani M.
      12 April 2020 @ 18:50
      Thanks John. If anyone has a link or title or date, please post. Would like to view that one.
  • TN
    Thibault N.
    12 April 2020 @ 17:22
    Too bad the interview wasn’t conducted after Thursday’s fed announcement...
  • SK
    Sergejs K.
    12 April 2020 @ 17:01
    James is on fire!
  • JS
    John S.
    12 April 2020 @ 15:15
    All I could think during the State Administration of Foreign Exchange discussion was the following Southpark Clip - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l1hCRBwGAXE
    • JS
      John S.
      12 April 2020 @ 15:21
      Outstanding 1 on 1. I have watched and re-watched and downloaded transcript. Please have James on again.
  • KL
    Kyle L.
    11 April 2020 @ 14:56
    Best interview yet. Mr. Aitken is perhaps the clearest talking guest I have heard. His examples of specific trades to illustrate concepts is immensely helpful if you could get him to do that even more that's better yet. Absolutely great. As a side note it would be well worth an extra 10min. Of video length if you would stop and break down some of the technical concept's into simple terms for unsophisticated such as myself.
    • KL
      Kyle L.
      11 April 2020 @ 15:02
      Also I like the split screen whenever possible so I can see the reactions of both the interviewer and the interviewee to the statements and points of the other.
    • DB
      Douglas B.
      11 April 2020 @ 22:47
      Agreed, Kyle.
    • IH
      Ian H.
      12 April 2020 @ 14:16
      Agree with screen split
  • AH
    Andrew H.
    12 April 2020 @ 14:12
    Incredible 1 on 1. Much needed break from the constant bearish bias that has been on display from major media sources and RV. I'm hopeful for a pullback tomorrow to load many of the undervalued equities out there, many of which are in the energy markets as mentioned in this video. Shareholder can always sell covered calls for downward protection on a lot of these high IV equities ;)
  • KB
    Ken B.
    12 April 2020 @ 14:02
    Outstanding....the closing comment from James nailed it!
  • JL
    James L.
    12 April 2020 @ 13:00
    great to see james here, thanks
  • RC
    Robert C.
    12 April 2020 @ 12:34
    James needs to be on video every week. Fabulous!
  • bh
    bjorn h.
    12 April 2020 @ 10:50
    A good idea is having debate on Chinese Yuan between James Aitken and Kyle Bass.
  • CG
    Col G.
    12 April 2020 @ 08:17
    Fantastic interview and educational as well. Hope there will be a follow up with James in the future.
  • PN
    Panos N.
    12 April 2020 @ 08:15
    Great interview, well done!
  • SH
    Stephen H.
    12 April 2020 @ 07:46
    Excellent interview. Some really great thoughts and insight. Thanks!
  • JM
    James M.
    12 April 2020 @ 07:34
    This is fantastic. Many of the more esoteric discussion points were certainly beyond my scope of knowledge but this is yet another interview that captures the immense value that Real Vision is adding to the financial and economic literacy of subscribers. Another home run. Thank you.
  • km
    kenneth m.
    10 April 2020 @ 08:32
    James expressed a clear view that the Fed would most likely not be backstopping JNK and HYG-like products (I think he believed they would too smart to do that). I think most people might have guessed the same. So, I now wonder what he thinks about the Fed's announcement (probably just a day or two after this was filmed) that they are going to buy those very types of high-yield items.
    • RM
      Richard M.
      10 April 2020 @ 13:20
      *** Milton/RV, please, please put the "filmed on date" back in the description. Or at least tell us why you consider this such valuable information you refuse to provide it to your paying customer even after the HUGE demand for it to be put back in the description. Thank you for your consideration.
    • MK
      Mike K.
      11 April 2020 @ 02:44
      >>> Please, please, please, please, please, please, please, please put back the "filmed on date"
    • GB
      Gold B.
      11 April 2020 @ 12:48
      Agree with the request to put the filmed date back.
    • RS
      Rajwinder S.
      11 April 2020 @ 22:17
      For people wondering when this interview was taped: it was likely between April 6 & 8. That's based on the reference to an April 2 Bloomberg story on Citigroup mentioned as published "last week" and the actual Fed announcement to buy junk bonds on April 9.
    • JC
      John C.
      12 April 2020 @ 06:59
      Fed announced they are only buying current BBB bonds that fall to junk and even then only down to Ba3/BB- levels. No single B LBO bonds or leveraged loans for now.
  • RM
    Raheel M.
    10 April 2020 @ 12:32
    On the point of the Libor floor. I understand that the Fed liquidity facilities (MMLF, CPFF) incur a borrow cost of 110-125bps. But why does that translate into a floor on Libor? Libor is a barometer of banks’ expected unsecured funding costs. These facilities restrict what you can do with the money you borrow to allowable HQ MM assets (CP) which are then parked with the Fed until maturity. I’ve been trying to make sense of this for a couple of days since I first came upon this particular “floor” argument, which was an unexpanded statement. Any clarity would be much appreciated. In the video the concept starts from the 41m remaining mark.
    • SS
      Shanthi S.
      11 April 2020 @ 07:37
      I didn’t understand this either. Would love to hear an elaboration of the argument.
    • JC
      John C.
      12 April 2020 @ 06:57
      Would also be interested in having Mr. Aitkin expand his rationale regarding the LIBOR floor. LIBOR has jumped significantly of late and is well above Fed Funds which it supposedly tracks, indicating a lot of stress in the Eurodollar system and a USD shortage outside the US.
  • AB
    Aditya B.
    10 April 2020 @ 14:40
    When did this conversation happen? I feel like all the conversation that happened before April 9th are essentially outdated considering that the FED decided to BUY JUNK ! Changes the game. ALL the hypothesis built on the fact that JUNK cant be salvaged is changed.
    • TS
      Tim S.
      10 April 2020 @ 15:25
      Game permanently changed, until the boom.
    • JC
      John C.
      12 April 2020 @ 06:54
      If you read the press release it says Fed only buying fallen angel junk bonds that are currently BBB-rated. That is over 1 trillion of paper but includes companies like Ford, Boeing, AT&T etc. Fed wants to make sure these big companies stay afloat and do not destroy the HY market from within if and when they get downgraded to junk and potentially overwhelm the market.
  • JC
    Jack C.
    12 April 2020 @ 05:40
    Thanks for featuring these great Aussie talent! We’ve had Russell Clark, Ben Melkman and now James Aitken. Bravo RV
  • PL
    Patrick L.
    12 April 2020 @ 05:29
    Great interview
  • LC
    Liliana C.
    12 April 2020 @ 05:13
    James Aitken with Raoul double the Brilliant! So many nuggets, thank you both!!🙏
  • PV
    Peter V.
    12 April 2020 @ 04:42
    Perhaps need a Kyle Bass / James Aitken one-on-one!
  • Op
    Oren p.
    11 April 2020 @ 05:59
    For those of us trying to use the interview to better understand a space we are not experts on it was a hard interview to digest.
    • SS
      Shanthi S.
      11 April 2020 @ 07:23
      Watch it again. It’s pure gold.
    • ly
      lena y.
      12 April 2020 @ 03:05
      the transcript is very useful! Go over it a few times and make notes like going back to school!
  • PU
    Peter U.
    11 April 2020 @ 09:14
    How many times do we have to ask. . . please put the date filmed back in the description. Why do you continue to ignore your customers'/clients' requests? Arrogant!
    • JB
      Jack B.
      11 April 2020 @ 10:29
      Too funny! Clearly the interview wasn't your focus?
    • BF
      Billy F.
      12 April 2020 @ 02:56
      just look at the date on the comments.. Also who wants to do anything for someone acting like a jerk?
  • JB
    Jeffrey B.
    12 April 2020 @ 02:48
    Great interview and I thank you for that. Obviously recorded before the Fed announced that it would indeed bail out HY market. How does that change you illiquidity thesis Raoul? I am still onboard to be honest - I don’t think the Fed can backstop every company in US but would be curious of your opinion.
  • GV
    Gunnar V.
    12 April 2020 @ 02:46
    James needs to be hired as the #2 interviewer after Raoul
  • SR
    Steve R.
    12 April 2020 @ 02:07
    Wow! Awesome stuff from James there! Definitely want to hear from James more often!
  • nd
    nicolas d.
    12 April 2020 @ 02:06
    When james talk about the fed fx swap line or CPFF, he says OIS (overnight index swap) not OAS (option adjusted spread). The fx swap line is OIS +25, whihc is allin as James correctly says is about OIS +35/60 at the moment depending on the currency. The CPFF is OIS +110 for A1 paper and OIS +200 for A2 paper, on top of which you add a 10 bp fee. Anyway this is a fanstastic interview. Wish to hear more from James in this current environment
  • AK
    Amit K.
    12 April 2020 @ 00:58
    Amazing interview!
  • ZH
    Zack H.
    12 April 2020 @ 00:29
    One of the beat interview guests I’ve seen in a while. James obviously been around the poker table a few times. Well done.
  • TS
    Thomas S.
    11 April 2020 @ 23:23
    Great interview.!
  • PM
    Paul M.
    11 April 2020 @ 22:07
    Best interview on RV I’ve seen. Great to have a proper MM guy with an understanding of the wider markets and then very expert knowledge on particular subjects. He’s got a huge amount of xp. Keep him coming back!
  • JC
    Joseph C.
    11 April 2020 @ 13:59
    Everywhere, there seems to be the same mindset: 18 months to a vaccine, rolling shutdowns, quarantines until fall, etc. What no one is talking about or discounting is the possibility of an effective treatment strategy being determined. If physicians can keep infected younger, healthier patients from being hospitalized and dying, the game changes immediately. Since it doesn't seem like this is on many people's radar, it may be the lost cost, high reward bet that is worth taking a toss on. Thoughts?
    • DY
      Dmitry Y.
      11 April 2020 @ 21:53
      agreed, a vaccine is the ultimate goal and game changer. But if an efficient treatment is found sooner, this set's the path towards opening and recovery
  • PV
    Peter V.
    11 April 2020 @ 20:38
    Deadline Wong on fed buying junk bonds
  • RS
    Rajat S.
    11 April 2020 @ 20:32
    Things are so crazy at this time that the fundamental piece in this interviewwhere assumption is FED to NOT buy junk/High Yield credit is being falsified the very next day. They are buying everything now so how does this change the game now that all rules are changed. Why not take this as another shot at a new bull market or way to current ATHs atleast. They are not going to stop.
  • AH
    Anthony H.
    11 April 2020 @ 16:46
    OIS = overnight index swap, not OAS, option-adjusted spread as stipulated in the video text around 42:30.
  • JP
    John P.
    11 April 2020 @ 16:06
    On a scale of 1-10 stars, Mr. Aitken is off the charts fantastic. I loved every second of this. Just wish it would have been even longer!
  • tw
    tam w.
    11 April 2020 @ 04:52
    Why do Chinese firms need to borrow USD ? To buy raw materials , I guess. If so, China inc no longer has those USD. Yes the firm is short, but the PBOC is long and China Inc is square. PBOC selling UST may have been to lend to Chinese firms ( not mischief ) to enable those firm to repay offshore banks. China needs to quietly exit UST ( not like an elephant ) and buy gold or hard assets including US equiites ( under the cover of Bridgewater, Blackstone etc ). When China wants to cause mischief it will happen all at once, not just markets, but internet, power grids, trade and then bombs. They are not ready for this yet , I hope.
    • CP
      Curt P.
      11 April 2020 @ 15:48
      Exactly, those UST PBoC holds are a buffer to use when China Inc's export cash flow < import cash flow (particularly wrt food/energy). While China Inc's exports will drop substantially during this demand destruction in US/EU, cost of energy imports has also fallen. USA hopes to starve out China by reducing cash flow....we shall see. KSA will get wrecked in the process it seems. EU, Japan, RoK badly hurt in the process. May see that energy/food producers will accept RMB in order to keep their best customer alive.
  • DS
    David S.
    10 April 2020 @ 20:43
    The Fed balling out non-federal pension funds is a sticky wicket. Firstly, all the federal pension obligations are unfunded and paid out of current tax revenues -which are at high risk. The Fed is going to have to bail the federal pensions first. Secondly, there are many non-federal pension funds that owe huge annual pensions to individuals as discussed in the RVTV Pension Series - annual pensions in excess of $200,000 a year to individuals which are poorly funded. Why would millions of Americans without a pension want the Fed to bail out a $200,000 a year pensioner? State and local pensions are going to have to rationalize their obligations like Greece had to. Pension funds may have to liquidate and allocate pension money to the pension holders. A defined pension plan has been a dinosaur for 50 years. This is just another government promise that will not be met. DLS
    • JC
      John C.
      11 April 2020 @ 07:38
      Agree. Rhode Island is probably the state template. Fed and Treasury in league with Congress will use MMT to try to inflate away the debt then go the debt jubilee route. But taxpayers will be loathe to pay maxxed out pensions to state bureaucrats who retired at 60 and used their last few years to max out their benefits. Whole system will eventually break and reset. Slowly then all at once??
    • CP
      Curt P.
      11 April 2020 @ 15:27
      Folks must stop thinking about finance, and start thinking about Civilizational Fitness. It is fatal to a civilization to keep the young in serfdom so that the old can live 20+ years of unproductive luxury. The young simply will not breed, and then a fertility death spiral results, which means the civilization is gone within a two generations. It is a national security threat of the greatest size. This is why pensions, healthcare for the olds, etc are going to be cut. There is no way this system will continue any longer, for if politicians kept it going, I am certain there would be a military coup. These foolish games were only possible when there was no strategic rival (China), but now there is and so the games will end. If COVID did not exist, it would be necessary to invent it. COVID is the crisis that is needed to restructure all of this 'peace-time' foolishness.
  • OM
    Omar M.
    11 April 2020 @ 14:56
    Epic is so right! Great conversations gents... TY How has James opinions changed since we have the Junk market bailout announced now as well Thanks in advance!
  • OM
    Owen M.
    11 April 2020 @ 14:35
    one of the best interviews on RV. Superb. Bring James back!
  • MG
    Miguel G.
    11 April 2020 @ 13:23
    Would also like to add I think all the subscribers would agree, We NEED much more of James please 😬 in the future
  • MG
    Miguel G.
    11 April 2020 @ 13:19
    James I must say God Bless you for gracing us not only with your time but my God your incredible wealth of knowledge. Raoul your platform is truly amazing and I thank you for bringing James to real vision. I’m honestly blown away and lost for words just how much I have learned last couple years from real vision. Thanks to both of you guys, incredibly informative and really shines a light in to the mind set that is needed to truly win in this crazy game we all love. God bless guys and thank you again
  • DG
    Danko G.
    11 April 2020 @ 13:10
    And what I also have to say that Mr James Aitken try not to make a prognoses in the long term (or to be cautious), but the short- or mid-term (about equities that are hit with shutting down the economies), which is also quite good. But I see here two different approaches which is priceless.
  • GB
    Gold B.
    11 April 2020 @ 12:01
    I'm furious with this. KEN GRIFFITH'S FUND SHOULD BE WIPED OUT. Yes, the Fed can intervene to fix things and make sure it doesn't spill over - BUT WIPE THEM OUT. This is cronyism at its worst. It's completely disgusting. The folks levering up a zillion to one to collect their seven points as long as the boat doesn't get rocked need to be taken out on a stretcher. What a crooked system.
    • GB
      Gold B.
      11 April 2020 @ 12:01
      Griffin. whatever.
  • GM
    Gary M.
    11 April 2020 @ 11:48
    Bravo. That was excellent.
  • RG
    Richard G.
    11 April 2020 @ 10:35
    What a great interview. Some of the details stretched my knowledge but that's why I subscribe. I'll probably watch this again I think.
  • TM
    The-First-James M.
    10 April 2020 @ 21:02
    Incidentally, showing my age here, but if Mick Dundee had been a bond/credit trader and not a Northern Territory bushman, I'd imagine him to be James. ;)
    • BC
      Bill C.
      11 April 2020 @ 09:54
      Brilliant!!
  • VV
    Vasil V.
    10 April 2020 @ 14:44
    It was one of the best interviews recently. Thank you for the great, great content and the spotlight over some investing ideas. I can listen those two smart guys chatting every day. I really want to see more from James Aitken toughts.
    • MS
      Martin S.
      11 April 2020 @ 09:22
      Hjgajk
  • JL
    James L.
    10 April 2020 @ 14:37
    What happened to clearly posting the date of recordings? Accurate context and transparency matters. Oversight? Cool, please fix it. Intentional? Unacceptable to me, please rethink the reasoning and fix it.
    • PU
      Peter U.
      11 April 2020 @ 09:05
      totally agree James. I will not be reviewing my membership in RV unless the date filmed is posted
  • AG
    Adam G.
    10 April 2020 @ 07:33
    Great discussion, how can we follow Jame's work ?
    • SS
      Shanthi S.
      11 April 2020 @ 07:41
      Also would like to know.
  • MG
    Michael G.
    10 April 2020 @ 16:11
    Just have to say that Real Vision is just blowing it out of the water since this crises started. Due to the outstanding interviews such as this, the daily briefings and Raoul's updates we've been one of the 'not so sophisticated' Mum and Dad investors that have benefited immensely from you and your teams insights. Can't thank you enough. Keep up the great work.
    • SS
      Shanthi S.
      11 April 2020 @ 07:34
      Agreed. I think these guys should dump their NY studio and just work from home from now on. They’ve never been better!
  • JD
    James D.
    10 April 2020 @ 19:21
    Each time I watch a RV interview I tell myself “best ever.” This time I mean it! It was a lot to swallow and much of the discussion was beyond my skill set. I realize the Fed entered the debt market just after this video was published. Possibly Raoul could revisit the main points discussed and explain the takeaways post Fed recent actions? Thank you for this!!!
    • SS
      Shanthi S.
      11 April 2020 @ 07:31
      +1
  • MW
    Marc W.
    10 April 2020 @ 22:12
    PLEASE HAVE THIS GUY BACK AGAIN, AND FREQUENTLY!
    • SS
      Shanthi S.
      11 April 2020 @ 07:27
      Like weekly!!!
  • JA
    Jonathan A.
    11 April 2020 @ 01:08
    Thoroughly enjoyed this. You need to have James Aitken back on RV.
    • SS
      Shanthi S.
      11 April 2020 @ 07:26
      Agreed. Effing brilliant!!!! And helpful.
  • SS
    Shanthi S.
    11 April 2020 @ 07:23
    Omg!!! Blown away. That was more than worth the year’s sub. Talk about providing value. Thank you, thank you Raoul and James.
  • MS
    Matthew S.
    11 April 2020 @ 06:53
    “The principled man unwinding risk dis-parity” too funny!
  • MH
    Michael H.
    11 April 2020 @ 05:36
    The Best and most useful interview, thus far.
  • TT
    Tokyo T.
    11 April 2020 @ 05:19
    This is the reason RV exists because of interviews like this.
  • tw
    tam w.
    11 April 2020 @ 05:10
    Dear RV, Some are your videos are fantastic. However timing is everything. I suggest, you shorten the editing and dump the video online raw and unedited. I know glossy editing makes for better viewing, but in these crazy days, your product would be more valuable if was published immediately.
  • BP
    Ben P.
    11 April 2020 @ 04:13
    Thanks guys sharing - really helped me understand a little more about funding markets 👍
  • MC
    Michael C.
    11 April 2020 @ 02:29
    As many have said, please have the filmed on date back on the videos. Thank you!
  • FG
    Flavio G.
    11 April 2020 @ 00:53
    This is one of the best interviews I've ever seen on RV. The breadth and depth of James' knowledge are palpable. So instructive! Very much enjoyed the shooting from the hip communication style.
  • MD
    Mark D.
    11 April 2020 @ 00:48
    What a jet!
  • MD
    Mark D.
    11 April 2020 @ 00:48
    What a jet!
  • WS
    Will S.
    10 April 2020 @ 18:39
    How come I can’t listen to this I’m back ground when I have the screen off?
    • TM
      The-First-James M.
      10 April 2020 @ 20:34
      I think you need to check your phone settings Will. ;)
    • mw
      michael w.
      11 April 2020 @ 00:33
      I've also noticed, the app no longer lets you cast to the TV. Needs an update.
  • JF
    Jonathan F.
    11 April 2020 @ 00:04
    There has to be a breaking point where the smart people realize they weren’t smart enough and they have to resort war in order to hit the reset button.
  • LP
    Lynn P.
    10 April 2020 @ 18:56
    I would only add that Mr. Aitken is perhaps the clearest talking guest I have heard. His examples of specific trades to illustrate concepts is immensely helpful to someone like me.
    • DS
      David S.
      10 April 2020 @ 22:57
      Mr. Aitken does slow down and speak deliberately to emphasis a point, especially when it is about investment advice. Thanks Mr. Aitkin for a great interview. DLS
  • PB
    Paul B.
    10 April 2020 @ 22:56
    Holy crap this Bloke is so friggen Wired...Ya gotta get him back on again in 3 Months time...I had to back up soo many times to keep up....Great Interview
  • ST
    Sophie T.
    10 April 2020 @ 22:12
    Well this video did not age well. FED buying JUNK bonds is the worst thing that could have happen for the optics
    • DS
      David S.
      10 April 2020 @ 22:49
      Is the Fed just buying investment grade that became junk with the pandemic? The hope is when the pandemic is over, these fallen angels will return to investment grade. DLS
  • DS
    David S.
    10 April 2020 @ 22:45
    Being in isolation is certainly giving me too much time to think. The Brussels bond trick - all Euro members bonds are as good as German bonds - was played at the start of the Euro. Greece, Italy, Spain, Portugal were able to borrow at low German rates. How did that work out??? Brussels bureaucrats will put pressure on some Euro countries to repeatedly save other Euro countries. The European Economic Community was and is a good economic idea. The Euro is a political fiat currency without a sovereign. (At least Italian government IOUs have a sovereign.) Only politicians could have thought of this. Economically Brussels must force Euro countries to make it The Sovereign under the banner of the Euro will fail without a bureaucratic sovereign in charge. The Euro will fail anyway as Euro countries will not kowtow to beaucrates forever. Why not avoid the further strain on the EEU, let the Euro pass? When the Euro came into being all the black money came out the woodwork. When the Euro dies, billions will come out of the woodwork again. We are almost there. Set up a long term, transparent plan. Cross the Rubicon. DLS
  • DS
    David S.
    10 April 2020 @ 21:53
    Great Discussion. Mr. Aitkin is a wealth of information and front runs advice with timing and future events are completely unknown. Mr. Aitken’s idea of patient money is spot on. I am making a new list but already reversing my little nibbles before earning season. If I miss the first part of the move up, it will not kill the world’s smallest family office. Most CEO will right off as many problems as possible so COVIN-19 can be responsible. Since there is so much uncertainty, I hope most CEOs will be quiet about forecasting. DLS
  • TW
    Thomas W.
    10 April 2020 @ 21:51
    Fantastic, watched that one twice.
  • TM
    The-First-James M.
    10 April 2020 @ 20:55
    I'm echoing a number of the comments below here regarding the advent of the Fed now buying HYG and JNK. It would be great to get James back for a 15 - 30 minute update if possible, please (pretty please, with icing sugar on top)?
  • AS
    Alejandro S.
    10 April 2020 @ 16:11
    The BBB downgrade snowfall doesn’t matter anymore. The Fed, sorry the Treasury, sorry Trump, has made sure of it.
    • TM
      The-First-James M.
      10 April 2020 @ 20:36
      A junk rated company can still go insolvent without the cashflow to support their debt burden...
  • DZ
    Dennis Z.
    10 April 2020 @ 20:08
    At 24 minutes in James comments regarding liquidity for the real economy in the US which is what really matters which made me think. Yes he is right but the narrative of the last number of years is that, in fact, the real economy doesn't matter, until it does. This is all readily apparent by looking at the action in the equity markets and in fact there is a vested interest in keeping the real economy from mattering for as long as possible in order to extract maximum value for the 1%. How many of those involved in this ponzi scheme thought perhaps the real economy would never matter again? Perhaps they thought this orchestrated ponzi economy was now the only economy that mattered...and then came Covid-19... How many of those people still don't get it? I'm guessing still a bunch of them.
  • DG
    Dave G.
    10 April 2020 @ 18:03
    I'm sorry but after what happened with the Fed on Friday has largely made a lot of this conversation irrelevant. Maybe bring him back for short 1\2 hour follow up next week with the knowledge of the Fed buying junk.
    • BK
      Brian K.
      10 April 2020 @ 19:43
      yeah JNK rocketed. Capitalism is largely over.
  • EB
    ELLIOT B.
    10 April 2020 @ 19:25
    "The PBOC is a bit of a mystery to me. I don't think they're boxed in by the renminbi or the dollar borrowing by Chinese corporates, but I am surprised they're not doing a heck of a lot more. We know they're going to stimulate, but it seems quite limited and very gradual". Is it a stretch to think they are deliberately positioning monetary moves as measured and limited to present as a port in the storm ahead of their digitization of the RMB?
  • AH
    Allan H.
    10 April 2020 @ 17:45
    Superb. Thank you.
  • CG
    Christopher G.
    10 April 2020 @ 17:24
    Not difficult for Fed to buy anything.. $JNK $HYG $MUB
  • JV
    Jonas V.
    10 April 2020 @ 13:10
    How does this impact EM? Time to invest in EM now?
    • JD
      Jeffrey D.
      10 April 2020 @ 17:08
      They are at the apex of the solvency issue. They have experienced massive draw-downs in their reserves of foreign currency in the past month. They are going to witness massive squeezes, so I'd say wait. EM's may have the best relative recovery though and is where I'll be looking when we have deflated sufficiently.
  • JP
    John P.
    10 April 2020 @ 16:43
    Great conversation. Please bring him back often.
  • NR
    Nathan R.
    10 April 2020 @ 15:45
    Why do I get the feeling I just watched an episode of RV watching their RV? Meta meta anyone?
  • TS
    Tim S.
    10 April 2020 @ 15:09
    Napalm, the ultimate Daisy Cutter. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BLU-82
  • SM
    Sean M.
    10 April 2020 @ 14:45
    "Patches on indigestion" - that made me laugh
  • SS
    Steve S.
    10 April 2020 @ 14:34
    Funny that it was said that it's impossible for the Fed to buy the High Yield market and that's what they did yesterday. Unbelievable times.
  • NG
    Neil G.
    10 April 2020 @ 10:45
    What was the date this interview was conducted so we have context compared to where we are with central bank actions (purchase of high yield bonds)? Interview dates really need to be added to the description!
    • MB
      Michael B.
      10 April 2020 @ 14:24
      I could not agree more
  • GH
    Greg H.
    10 April 2020 @ 14:08
    Brilliant conversation!
  • IP
    IDA P.
    10 April 2020 @ 14:04
    thank you for clarifying the euro situation, taking the noise out
  • IP
    IDA P.
    10 April 2020 @ 13:54
    isn't the China constraint simply their fixed currency regime?
  • IP
    IDA P.
    10 April 2020 @ 13:41
    Mr. James doesn't just own a library, he uses it
  • PT
    Peter T.
    10 April 2020 @ 13:39
    the very best energy play is TPL bare none !!!!
  • PT
    Peter T.
    10 April 2020 @ 13:09
    Well they are going to buy the Junk to. Now What ?
  • J
    JP .
    10 April 2020 @ 13:03
    Excellent
  • AK
    Adam K.
    10 April 2020 @ 12:37
    Holy crap, imagine trying to play a game of chess against James. He'd be at checkmate before you even get a chance to move your first piece
  • KP
    Kaia P.
    10 April 2020 @ 12:25
    Epic interview, had to pause to take notes. However, pricing of swap lines is done at OIS (not OAS as per the subtitles) + 25 bps.
    • RM
      Raheel M.
      10 April 2020 @ 12:35
      You are right. James did say OIS at that point and a number of times after. Likely just a subtitle lost in translation. Maybe it was the accent ;)
  • KS
    KEVIN S.
    10 April 2020 @ 12:14
    Easily one of the best interviews I've seen yet on RV. Thank you! Please make James back on a regular basis.
  • LJ
    Liam J.
    10 April 2020 @ 11:15
    super interesting conversation ! Got a bit lost in the conversation about credit markets since I don't know alot about those but eager to learn :D
  • WZ
    Wei Z.
    10 April 2020 @ 10:17
    Is the "principled man" Dalio?
    • ML
      Mehdi L.
      10 April 2020 @ 11:15
      who else could it be :)
  • ra
    rehan a.
    10 April 2020 @ 10:54
    great seeing RP interviewing as much as he does nowadays
  • PL
    Pete L.
    10 April 2020 @ 10:05
    Raoul. Be interested to know your view on high yield now? More what’s this telling us rather than a trade recommendation? The Fed have clearly crossed the “impossible politically” rubicon. Great interview, one of the best ever on RVtv; many thanks to James. Cheers. Pete
  • MC
    Michael C.
    10 April 2020 @ 09:42
    Thanks Raoul. Aitken brothers are very well known here in Aus. I always looked forward to reading Charlies (James's brother) daily afternoon report after the market close during my career on the sell side. However, we didn't get into the offshore USD (or Euro$) plumbing issue in enough detail and this seems to be the key issue atm. Share your concerns about swap lines (not) flowing to corporates. What happens to open swap lines in an insolvency event? And how is China really maintining the peg when it can't access USD through trade? James hinted at this but gave no detail as to size of China's USD reserves and how long they will last. Can you do a deeper dive into this with an expert? Would Jeff Snider be the guy? Or a second interview with James Aitken?
    • DR
      De R.
      10 April 2020 @ 09:50
      Perhaps his takeaway is that the dollar could be brought lower through aggressive fed action which alleviates the pressure of dollar shortage.
  • DR
    De R.
    10 April 2020 @ 09:47
    Well the fed started buying junks!
  • AR
    Ankit R.
    10 April 2020 @ 09:45
    They just announced their plan to bail out high yield markets, how does that change the dynamics?
  • IO
    Igor O.
    10 April 2020 @ 09:41
    Great primer on value investing in the end!
  • JW
    JW2 W.
    10 April 2020 @ 09:27
    That was an amazing tour d’horizon of the macro landscape and we got some Equity investment opportunities to ponder as a cherry on the cake. Worth a repeat listen for sure as there was a lot to absorb. I appreciated to Listen to how experts like James (and Dylan and Mike) think about starting to nibble at the market again, or at a min, like Julian says, advise to start making your lists. Everyone seems to agree, as also articulated on the Daily Briefings, that there is a very high probability that in the medium term the real economy will catch up with current reality and send another shock wave through the markets.
  • js
    john s.
    10 April 2020 @ 09:12
    date ?
  • DZ
    David Z.
    10 April 2020 @ 07:59
    Excellent interview Raoul. One of my favorite conversations recently. Highly recommended.
  • JW
    Jim W.
    10 April 2020 @ 06:49
    "Let's just call him a Principled man" has got to be one of the funniest comments this year....