Why China Will Avoid Crisis by Any Means Necessary

Published on
September 18th, 2020
Duration
67 minutes


Why China Will Avoid Crisis by Any Means Necessary

The Interview ·
Featuring Chris Balding and Michael Green

Published on: September 18th, 2020 • Duration: 67 minutes

After years living abroad in China and Vietnam, professor Chris Balding has returned to the U.S. because of concerns for his safety due to his role in exposing the data collection operations of Shenzen Zhenhua Data Technology. In this interview with Michael Green of Logica Capital Advisors, Balding lays out the initial findings from his expository research and updates viewers on the current state of affairs in China. Together they examine geopolitical tensions between China and the rest of Asia as well as China's current relationship status with Europe and Russia. They also help viewers make sense of what is happening on the Chinese homefront and the macro factors driving capital flows into the country. Filmed on September 15, 2020. More information about the Chinese data gathering operation described in the interview can be found here: https://rvtv.io/33Cmxd7 and https://rvtv.io/3ktuDvg

Comments

Transcript

  • DW
    David W.
    12 October 2020 @ 03:22
    As far as I understand, it's not like the media in China is bashing on the US/democracy outright everyday. Instead, they just show the gun violence and response to COVID and normal Chinese ppl draw their own conclusions about democracy vs one-party rule. There's a time and place for pushback on authoritarianism, there's a time and place to point and critique, there's also a time to take the plank out of one's own eye. Truth of the matter is the USA has lost significant credibility and soft power since 2001 and if we're to remain THE testimony for democracy, we need to do democracy better. If we can't, we cede the argument thru our failures in action, no amount of debate will convince a Vietnam, Venezuela, a Russia to go towards democracy.
  • SG
    Sashi G.
    29 September 2020 @ 09:25
    Without commenting about the right or wrong of what China may or may not be doing, I think it is very naive to think that they are the only ones at this game. EVERY major country (and some minor ones) in the world is at this in one form or the other with whatever objectives they may have. It's a part of the real-politik today shall we say. Is it okay for one country to target another's nuclear installations with virus attacks to take just one example - just because they say they are being misused for weapons? Who is the judge of right or wrong here? I also do not believe that Hua Wei is worse or better than any other telecom vendor on equipment security/spying - the back doors are probably there for all vendors. It's just not publicized. The ability of the NSA to eavesdrop on any conversation or data anywhere if they want to and even extend this capability over whole countries is "known". How does one think they do this except through commercially deployed communication equipment from many US vendors?
  • pt
    popejumpingjohnpaul t.
    18 September 2020 @ 20:59
    As a European, I firmly support the hawkish US approach to China, however, if Americans decide to reelect Trump than what's the point in them even worrying about China when they are opting for a Russian klepto model at home! Europeans despise Trump because he's an ignorant, illiterate donkey. Elect him again and you are really choosing to go it alone. All this fake Christian dumb anti-science Pence and Pompeo bs, all they care about it money. Who would want anything to do with these lying clowns? Great interview tho, love this shit.
    • MF
      Michael F.
      19 September 2020 @ 11:22
      Bravo - Trump is a useful idiot for the wealthy and white. Sadly the US is headed to very hard times and Trump leads the parade.
    • LF
      Liam F.
      20 September 2020 @ 01:13
      Unfortunately, there's a very real possibility that Trump will win again with a minority of the (popular) vote. Welcome to the Undemocratic United States, and our PoS electoral college voting system. We too are held hostage by the sociopathic douchebag Trump and his enablers the treasonous snakes McConnell and Barr. Sad bloody times here.
    • SB
      Stephen B.
      20 September 2020 @ 18:06
      You think that someone who can take a minor NY construction company and grow it into a multi billion $ global brand is dumb? I wish i was that dumb.
    • SB
      Stephen B.
      20 September 2020 @ 18:26
      The US is a Federation of States. The founding fathers could not have fully foreseen what states would later join the union and/or their future state populations but they did have the foresight to set up the electoral college (and the two senators per state) system to ensure future balance within the federal government. In countries like Brazil and India a handful of populous states control the federal government. The US is the beautiful and successful country it is today, in part, because of the Electoral College system. So, not a "POS" but a brilliant piece of foresight.
    • LF
      Liam F.
      21 September 2020 @ 03:46
      @stephenB: allowing the tyranny of the minority and gaming of the system. I call it PoS. You think it's beautiful. Stick around. We'll find out what happens.
    • SB
      Stephen B.
      22 September 2020 @ 00:58
      How can it be the gaming of the system by a minority? The system was deliberately set up to represent a majority of states, not a majority of individuals. Same as the Senate was. Not gaming but conscious design.
    • LK
      Lauri K.
      28 September 2020 @ 13:56
      Trump has its problems but the opponent is way worse. Maybe this will give birth to a legitimate third party in the United States.
  • CX
    Cindy X.
    19 September 2020 @ 13:32
    What a loser! An academic can't find a decent job in his own country and now pretending to be an expert of Asia. For someone who has lived in China for years and still use the wrong name for the party in China, it shows you he really is as competent as his job prospects.
    • KA
      Kristian A.
      19 September 2020 @ 19:52
      X.....Xi?
    • JO
      Johnny O.
      24 September 2020 @ 10:01
      ni hao wumao
    • LK
      Lauri K.
      28 September 2020 @ 13:51
      Didn't expect to find 50 cent army members here.
  • JD
    Jimmy D.
    28 September 2020 @ 02:00
    Thank you Real Vision for not being afraid to speak badly about China. (unlike Mark Cuban, Steve Wynn, Michael Bloomberg, and more who all are basicly silent on slavery in China and human rights)
  • CP
    Chamil P.
    21 September 2020 @ 05:34
    Great interview but from someone from a small South Asian country I don't see much of a difference between China and the US. Yes, they have different political systems, cultures etc. but the end result tends to be the same. The wants and needs of the rich and powerful are promoted above everyone elses and anything and everything is on the cards. Nothing is off limits for either nation be it spying, invading or political meddling. It's like that scene from the movie The Dictator.
    • sc
      sung c.
      23 September 2020 @ 06:27
      President Xi just had a Chinese real estate billionaire jailed for 18 years simply because the latter voiced dissatisfaction with the handling of Xi over the Coronavirus issue. You would never see such an action from the U.S. government because it is a violation of the First Amendment, Freedom of Speech. That is one blaring key difference between the two governmental systems. I would think twice before you equate the two governments, and if you do, I would suggest you go try living there and voicing your opinions, and see what happens.
    • JB
      James B.
      26 September 2020 @ 05:11
      On an economic level there may be some truth to that but go ask the Uighurs how they feel about the system in China. Go ask the people who have had their organs harvested, the Tibentans who have just been forced into labour camps. At the end of the day personal rights and freedoms are respected in the USA and there is a system of checks and balances to ensure that if any leader does not follow the will of the people they will be removed at the next election. America is not faultless and they are by no means perfect but to equate the 2 is a grave mistake.
  • ea
    edwin a.
    24 September 2020 @ 21:36
    A great conversation. I think it's interesting to consider how the TPP might have strentgthened US influence. I saw more as a national security effort (to contain china) than an economic one. I wouldn't be surprised if, sometime in a not-too-distant future, pulling out of the TPP looks like the biggest national security mistake of the Trump administration. Is revival of this, or something similar, a potential for the future (perhaps under Biden)?
  • PQ
    Pascal Q.
    24 September 2020 @ 05:55
    Not saying that China is wonderful but there are some objectives mistakes from the start of the interview. First, the databases used by banks for their customers KYC; external providers are not only supplying small institutions while big banks have their own as Chris says. Large Database maintained by third parties are used widely across all banks, just look at what data are available in Refinitiv World-Check or DJ Factiva. Then saying that US is not building databases on foreign people as large as China, this claim could be taken seriously is Assange or Snowden were unknown but since there has been countless cases and USA even wiring entire countries phone network, it is just amusing. Not so long ago it was acknowledged that Merkel and Sarkozy were tapped by NSA... The discussion about RGPD in Europe is also funny, again Huawei is certainly a problem for europe but so is google or FB. It comes down as often with Americans that you guys are too proud to acknowledge your owns problems or at least discarding the true impact of US politics.
  • SB
    Stewart B.
    23 September 2020 @ 17:23
    Wow - amazing interview. So balanced and insightful. As always, Mike Green asks informed questions.
  • sc
    sung c.
    23 September 2020 @ 06:38
    Me thinks that Kyle Bass will be speaking with Chris Balding in the very near future. :) As he should as well as many others.
  • PL
    Paulise L.
    20 September 2020 @ 16:56
    shallow guest speaker, don't think he understand the full scope of China, first time disappointed in Mike Green's interview.
    • sc
      sung c.
      23 September 2020 @ 06:28
      How so?
  • DB
    Daniel B.
    21 September 2020 @ 22:50
    What is stopping China from annexing North Korea? Surely they could take that action without international recourse.
    • sc
      sung c.
      23 September 2020 @ 06:21
      It serves China better to use North Korea by using them to carry out direct actions that they would like to, such as the firing of nuclear test missles, in order to study the reaction by other nations, especially the U.S. North Korea is just a pawn of China, but by leaving them looking independent, China can always claim it had nothing to do with N.K.'s actions.
  • sc
    sung c.
    23 September 2020 @ 06:17
    The old Soviet regime, before it was dismantled, sowed seeds of socialism into South American countries back in the 70's; and now we see most of the South and Central American countries having taken up or in the throws of taking up Socialism as their government mandate. China is sowing seeds of doubt and dissention for democracy throughout Africa, Eastern Europe, Asia, and even in Europe and the U.S.; and we are starting to see the increased rioting, distrust, and dissatisfaction with government. It's already so far entrenched and underway, that China is no longer trying to cover it up but shoving in our faces and challenging us to do something about it. I hate to see what will transpire within the next ten years in Europe and the U.S.
  • DP
    David P.
    23 September 2020 @ 03:27
    Interesting take about the reality of data collection from an autoritarian state. Based on the Snowden testimony, this is still childay compared to the massive systemic data collection undertaken worldwide by the NSA.
  • ND
    Nicole D.
    19 September 2020 @ 01:51
    Isn't the U.S. trying to avoid a crisis by any means necessary as well? I listened to this interview and found part of it absurd. By far the U.S.A. gathers more intelligence and data on persons globally for it's own benefit than any other country. Next, attempts to blame China for the ongoing / present political and social tension in the U.S.A. is ridiculous. The U.S.A. is mess because it's always been a mess of racial, political and social tensions and the widening divide between the 1 percent and the 99 percent is ramping up tension now especially. China and Russia have little to do with what is happening in the U.S. now. Mike, go to China and check it out for yourself it's much different than propagandized by certain U.S. individuals.
    • AB
      Alastair B.
      19 September 2020 @ 04:51
      The USA doesn’t need to avoid crisis in any way possible like China, as political legitimacy is derived from participation not performance. Even the Great Depression didn’t result in revolution in the USA
    • EW
      Evan W.
      22 September 2020 @ 18:04
      US gathers intelligence for national security, not economic gain. Plenty of books by authors who hate Trump who worked for US intelligence agencies, for example: Dawn of the Code War: America's Battle Against Russia, China, and the Rising Global Cyber Threat.
  • DB
    Daniel B.
    21 September 2020 @ 22:35
    I agree that the Republican government is quite popular in many foreign nations because of the US government's strong geopolitical policy, specifically their goals of normalising CCP behaviour (i.e. forcing the CCP to honour the WTO laws, supply chain redistribution / risk management, delivering their BRI political influence), and their anti war stance (removed ISIS, trops out of Iraq / Afghanistan). Strong leadership from the US has never been more important globally. I appreciate the progressive trade/military policy from the US.
  • WL
    Wallace L.
    21 September 2020 @ 22:16
    This appears to be the article from India that Mike Green mentioned: https://www.thehindu.com/opinion/lead/the-great-greying-of-china/article32575480.ece#!. It discusses where the population is going, some implications of that, and questions official population statistics.
  • DS
    David S.
    21 September 2020 @ 19:49
    Absolutely fascinating and eye opening conversation.
  • FB
    Frank B.
    20 September 2020 @ 08:53
    Mike mentioned a recent piece where India challenges some of China's population statistics. Is that available publicly and does somebody have a link?
    • JA
      Joseph A.
      21 September 2020 @ 13:31
      Thanks for your perspective Andras I, for context I’m a 15 year Hong Kong resident with lots of Chinese friends. I also know a bit about India as well having been there a few times including Bangalore and have some Indian friends. I was in HK at the beginning of covid and Chinese New Year. The response was in line with your experience. I agree that cultural and demographic differences need to be layered onto economic data to try to understand better the asymmetric outcomes and recovery process of different nations. Shortly after Chinese New Year I had to go to the USA and got stuck there but I went there screaming at folks to pay attention to what HK and China were doing to help stop the spread. It mostly fell on deaf ears to begin with. Classic case of heads in the sand and “it won’t happen to us” kind of attitude. To begin with I was looked at very oddly for wearing a mask out and about and talk of mad rush to the stores to get toilet paper were laughed at...I don’t need to finish this story for you to know what ensued in the weeks and months after that...
  • AP
    Ananth P.
    21 September 2020 @ 12:23
    Excellent!
  • CD
    C D.
    21 September 2020 @ 05:37
    Makes sense. Far from disappointing...???
  • YL
    Yew L.
    21 September 2020 @ 04:36
    Chris and Michael talked about the population statistics of china. The labor work force peaked sometime in early 2010's, which is correct, but they also said the actual population of China is now declining, which is not true. The population continues to increase, albeit at a slowing rate, and will probably start decreasing in late 2020's
  • Sp
    Scott p.
    20 September 2020 @ 22:48
    Does anyone have his Twitter handle?
    • JM
      Jacob M.
      21 September 2020 @ 02:16
      @Baldingsworld (assuming you don’t mean @profplum99)
  • JA
    Joseph A.
    20 September 2020 @ 15:33
    I wonder about China’s current recovery. They convey themselves as having recovered first, remarkably low covid numbers (yeah we know they are fake numbers but that they are printing that low a number is itself curious to me... ) Also their domestic air travel back to around 90% of pre covid levels, people back to work and industrial production back to a high level. All this wreaks of something preplanned. USD/CNY price action interesting too. Just observations that make me go hmmm. Not offering any thing beyond that. Anyone care to think this forward with me?
    • AI
      Andras I.
      20 September 2020 @ 23:30
      Of course it's pre-planned. Like it should be in every country with that population density and history of pandemics. I'm pretty sure (one can hope...) most developed countries had their reaction pre-planned too, the brief was on the table, there were 2 (3?)months to prepare and failed/failing to execute on it - partially due differences in social behaviour and current political conditions. Fake numbers: the other day Jim Bianco was questioning how can China's and India's numbers be so different. Ok, probably the Chinese numbers are fake. Let's say an order of magnitude? Two? Still nowhere near what's happening in India that Bianco thinks is a similar country. Let me elaborate on this specifically. China (4 years living, 10+ years visiting) 1, China had a plan to prepare for this - it's pretty clear and like I said, I bloody well except a government to be prepared! Especially with the defense/intelligence budgets of the West! 2, Chinese citizens are pre-conditioned to obey these kind of situation, due to more exposure and recent experience. 3, Government action/communication: we went from "have you heard" to hard lockdown in a day. I still remember going out on Chinese New Year afternoon (on a fairly low traffic day) and not being able to leave the apartment complex the next couple of days. Temporary shops and food delivery were put in place within a couple of days. Very inconvenient - very effective (this is a provincial capital, not Beijing or Shanghai btw...) 4, Things recovered about 3-4 months ago (I cannot even remember anymore, somewhere around June?) - people continued wearing masks. I don't know if they make any difference but it just shows the response. 5. Cities still can (and occasionally still do) go into temporary lockdown for detecting 1-2 cases! It happens and is quickly dealt with. 6, The Chinese public/private health care system is in generally a good condition with both capacity and equipment. Yes, they had to build temporary hospitals in a very small location. But they could also "encourage" healthcare workers from all over the country to participate in Wuhan. ...could go on and on. 7, Tracking: implemented instantly. I wasn't exactly following what was happening in this, I just kept hearing about "Google maybe implementing and thinking about it" for a considerably longer time. I'm NOT saying public data should be handled lightly but it does help when the government owns/directly controls most of these large tech companies like Alibaba nd something needs to get done quick. People didn't seem to understand/mind, so obviously it's accepted much easier (although later on I've heard it in conversations with younger people, so there is some kind of awareness) Current situation: Like I said, I cannot remember when it all ended but now everything is fully open (even cinemas), there is very little effort in controlling the virus (there is a dude sitting outside the mall who doesn't seem to give a shit about what's going on anymore - you couldn't possibly get past him 2 months ago!) --- Now, India (first hand experience, 10 months living, 3 months traveling in the country): Public healthcare. I had to go to a couple of government hospitals. For admin reasons, against all my colleagues (from all over India) well intended warnings: "people go there to die!". One was tiny with pounded clay floors and no X-ray machine. The other was a large building from the colonial times, it had pigeons flying due to some of the walls crumbling down what looked like at least a couple of years ago, 20 patients crowding/overlooking others at the same time at the GP's office with a man with a stick sitting outside waving everyone in, they had issues with such basic things as taking a blood sample (finding a vein is hard), matching documents to test results. This was in a city called Bangalore that sees itself as the Silicon Valley of India, with all the major IT and automotive companies operating R&D and support facilities. I can only imagine the conditions elsewhere. I've also visited public healthcare facilities - it was awesome. But at a higher price (and probably lower capacity) than a similar service in China - who can afford it? Those who are anyways less exposed. Social aspects: While in general large families are rare in China (mostly only the core family, parents and a single child living together), in India (from what I've seen), it's more common to have 2 but even 3 generations living together - with living in maids who come and go and generally are living in much worse conditions. This obviously facilitates spreading the virus between different age groups. Not sure how to put this but Indian people are not exactly known to follow rules in general. Also, they haven't been so exposed to SARS and other similar pandemics, so there is less of a precedent to help this issue. Not even going to talk about shanty towns - not just the famous ones but a general village on the outskirts of all larger cities. Millions and millions of people. These kind of conditions simply do not exist in China anymore (I've travelled in all 31 Chinese provinces during the years, except Inner Mongolia, Heiliongjiang and Ningxia - not just famous sights) .... So why did I write all this? Because there are some important lessons - not just about the virus but about interpreting economic data and news without any experience with the local aspects of the country.
  • wj
    wiktor j.
    20 September 2020 @ 07:32
    This needs to be free
    • JL
      James L.
      20 September 2020 @ 12:46
      Agreed!
    • Sp
      Scott p.
      20 September 2020 @ 22:43
      I'd pay for this to be free.
  • HR
    Humberto R.
    18 September 2020 @ 18:59
    "In many ways we are being played by all sides."
    • DC
      Dave C.
      20 September 2020 @ 20:28
      Well said "Among the government’s wilder Mitre orders: a prototype tool that can hack into smartwatches, fitness trackers and home thermometers for the purposes of homeland security; software to collect human fingerprints from social media websites like Facebook, Instagram and Twitter for the FBI" https://www.forbes.com/sites/thomasbrewster/2020/07/13/inside-americas-secretive-2-billion-research-hub-collecting-fingerprints-from-facebook-hacking-smartwatches-and-fighting-covid-19/#ff161c205202
  • RO
    Robert O.
    20 September 2020 @ 18:53
    Is Chris planning to publish online the list of names and organizations that this database contains? If it reads like the world phone book and creates enough concern among politicians and business leaders, then it may restrain China's (Xi's) influence outside their country.
  • MF
    Michael F.
    19 September 2020 @ 11:52
    I fear that Putin and Company have discovered the secret sauce to destroy the US. All they have done is open up the bottle and help it spread through society via the Internet. With the death of Justice Ginsburg we are going to see how that hate driven sauce pushed by Putin will trump all decencies. Trump is a liar, McConnell is a liar and let us see how quickly Graham shows himself to be a liar. With the arrival of the Republican Supreme Court the poor, the old and the other have no hope for Justice in the US. I have never owned a gun in my entire life but now that the White Supremacists own the Courts, the Justice Department and the Police it may be time for sane people arm themselves. This morning the future of the US looks bad.
    • JF
      Jess F.
      19 September 2020 @ 11:55
      Is this the same USA that is destroying Julian Assange?
    • DD
      Donovan D.
      19 September 2020 @ 16:45
      Yes many of the politicians on the right are liars, as well as the left. Using a biased view that's negative in nature adds nothing to the discussion.
    • LF
      Liam F.
      19 September 2020 @ 20:59
      Both national parties have plenty of liars. The Republican national party has treasonous, tyrannical snakes.
    • SB
      Stephen B.
      20 September 2020 @ 18:43
      Gun and ammunition sales are through the roof in the US (just look at Smith and Westerns quarter). However, i would argue that is because ordinary citizens have begun to fear that local politicians/judicial systems/police forces (particularly in Democratic run states/cities) are not there to protect them anymore. Nothing to do with Russia, nothing to do with white supremacists and everything to do with a breakdown of local administration.
  • BR
    Benjamin R.
    18 September 2020 @ 10:38
    Excellent and important interview. Mr. Balding is doing important work and he can be commended. There is no such thing as a private company in China regardless of what they call themselves. Every Chinese company that is allowed to list on any market worldwide must have received a blessing and direct support from PRC authorities as a matter of policy. All companies, especially those operating overseas, are vehicles to serve Chinese national interests in a variety of ways, many of them nefarious in nature. Whether investors want to accept it or not, an investment in a listed Chinese company or asset on any exchange, NYSE included, is tantamount to an investment in the Chinese Communist Party and is, at the very least, indirect support for their policies.
    • SB
      Stephen B.
      20 September 2020 @ 18:04
      I agree. I did a lot of business in China and reached that same conclusion. Every company had a "sponsor" somewhere in the shadows.
  • DH
    Dominick H.
    20 September 2020 @ 01:54
    Thank you Mike and Chris for this awesome interview. As a Chinese American who grew up in CCP regime and lived in US for more than 25 years, I can assure you what's discussed in this interview is so true and important. CCP is an evil regime that's waging unconventional wars against democracy, They'll do whatever it takes to win the war., things we can't even imagine such as bio-weapon, Cyber, financial, media war, etc. It's important to understand CCP is an authoritarian regime, but it does NOT represent China and Chinese people. Hope more and more countries and people realize it and work together to take actions! I'm glad to see things are happening inside and outside China. How this unconventional war evolves would have enormous consequences to world's economy and investment strategy.. Just give an example at micro level, spike of capital outflow from China using Bitcoin to evade capital control correlated to some of the biggest BTC move last two years, especially during the last BTC surge to $19K.
    • SC
      Stanley C.
      20 September 2020 @ 02:31
      Thanks for speaking out.
    • AC
      Andrew C.
      20 September 2020 @ 04:38
      Hmmm, Chinese students in Australia certainly represented the CCP last year during those protests!
    • PL
      Paulise L.
      20 September 2020 @ 17:02
      lived in US >> 25 yrs = being brain washed by evil media >> 25 yrs. Wake up please! Do you really understand Democracy? like freedom of speech, freedom to shoot and riots, freedom to raise food cost, freedom to get rid of middle class, so the rich can be richer? these are so called democracy, this word has been used excessively to brain wash the naive.
  • PM
    Paul M.
    20 September 2020 @ 06:36
    So Chinese have intelligence? What a reveal!
  • KB
    Kurt B.
    18 September 2020 @ 12:14
    The “Hoovering up” of personal info. That is a hilarious double entendre applying with equal force to both the vacuum maker and the man - right down to the H being capitalized in both instances. I wonder if the double application occurred to him.
    • AK
      Arthur K.
      20 September 2020 @ 00:45
      Got the hoovering reference , great 👍
  • JS
    Jon S.
    19 September 2020 @ 22:55
    I cannot agree more with this and as European it is so difficult to pass the message alone to everyone else. At least now with COVID some are opening their eyes to the impact that China has in the world when the world ask China to play by the rules. Still, people do not take seriously this major risks. As Always said read „destined for war“ which explains the modern times tucsydes trap with China... It is playing out every day in front of us.
  • SL
    Sean L.
    19 September 2020 @ 21:59
    Awesome interview - thanks Mike, Chris, and RV
  • AN
    Anthony N.
    19 September 2020 @ 21:50
    We need a Michael Pettis interview please.
    • SL
      Sean L.
      19 September 2020 @ 21:59
      Agreed - mike or kb + pettis would be awesome.
  • KA
    Kristian A.
    19 September 2020 @ 19:52
    Every Mike Green interview is a must watch.
  • JE
    J E.
    19 September 2020 @ 18:25
    You guys are smarter than me.. and, I’ve read a fair amount about China. But, every time I hear the doom and gloom about particulars of China — demographics, economy, real estate, state control and privacy, markets, banking, currency devaluation, avoiding crisis at all costs, etc etc... it seems to me that every point can also be made about the US. There are degrees of difference of course for each topic, but perhaps we should be asking why the US as leader of the “free” world has so many problems in common with communist China and why we are dealing with them with such similar solutions.
  • TR
    Theodore R.
    19 September 2020 @ 11:03
    So why is Snowden still in Russia?
  • LB
    Lukas B.
    19 September 2020 @ 11:00
    In regards to Vietnam, I highly recommend the documentary "Fog of War."
  • PJ
    Paul J.
    19 September 2020 @ 10:48
    All those who remember the world won't forget what they're seen.
  • PJ
    Paul J.
    19 September 2020 @ 10:48
    All those who remember the world won't forget what they're seen.
  • mc
    miroslaw c.
    19 September 2020 @ 07:29
    incoherent rambler, let me give you an example was repeated every third sentence.
  • SB
    Sunil B. | Contributor
    19 September 2020 @ 05:58
    Insightful and makes to question a lot of things discussed and left unsaid.
  • DM
    Dominic M.
    18 September 2020 @ 21:59
    Fascinating conversation. Thank you, gentlemen. And l look forward to the update in 6 mo.
  • AI
    Andras I.
    18 September 2020 @ 12:46
    Thanks for the update, always some interesting points! Few points about the productivity/demographic issues (as obvious as they are): 1, China is the world leader in AI and will be the world leader in robotization, cloud tech, green energy, semiconductor and whatever is driving the economy of the next few years - without relying on a shaky market to get there with the first steps. (I recommend everyone who understands enterprise IT to take a look at the enterprise offerings on the Huawei enterprise website for a taste - I don't think the pace of its development was matched by any Western corporations for breadth and depth. It's not only mobile phones and 5G equipment.) 2, There are unlimited possibilities of (productive or temporal placebo) infrastructure investment still untapped in China - not unlike shale that was a major driver of the US overperformance before it faded away. Which they can commit to much easier than any other nation given it's viewed as the state playing it's proper role. Just like what happened with COVID, the general population is unified, very supportive and even proud of the achievement. Looking at ATH for copper and iron ore production/stockpiling in the last 2-3 months, probably not far to be kicked off. 3, Most of the families now are preferring 2 kids (and it shows), something that's actively supported/promoted both financially and culturally by the state. This somewhat invalidates the 2x40% argument - which number I would question: a single child doesn't cost anywhere near 40% of a family's income unless you're from the countryside, sending your kid to a private school in Beijing/overseas - in which case you probably have unknown income (or a rich relative treating it as an investment) anyways. 4, Perception of women: most of the social stigma are luckily disappearing and makes the workforce more open to women - which, in Japan's case was one of the driving force of the boom. Especially in larger cities, independent, well educated and competitive female workforce was not a factor even a decade ago. They don't all want to marry when they leave primary school, when they have a 50% chance for a divorce (not very different from the West). 4, The housing "market" is actively managed on the edge of expectations and possibilities. Still, of course the largest investment of most families is real estate (by far) but it's not as free, bubbling market like it used to be: - Actively seeking out alternatives: a very carefully managed equities market for both foreign but I believe domestic/pension investment (of course it's a learning curve - this year between "BTC bubble" and "Tulip mania" levels) - Tax and legal regulations to limit holdings (which of course can/will be worked around as usual) - A couple of highly leveraged construction companies that were let/made to fail as an example - Raising funds for new projects had further regulations) - Education about expected return profiles for different locations ....etc. 4, And as a European here is what I think about data collection in both countries (and worse, megacaps): "two peas in the same pod" "cut from the same cloth" "horses of the same colour" "one is 19, the other is 20-but-1" 5, Maybe it's time for each to focus on their own development before it's too late? Only economic overperformance can stabilise this era...however unlikely it is (like the Soviet Union in 1988)
    • AR
      Alexander R.
      18 September 2020 @ 17:15
      Well, Ray Dalio just published a chapter With the argument "China will dominate the world " I am just wondering if timing of the book is related to dollar shortage and need to for foreign investors to pile capital into china to bail them out of financial crisis. Also totalitarian regimes ultimately kill creativity, and maybe CCP will become the enemy and obstacle exactly of what you praising them for ? Anyway best of luck with your investment in China
    • AI
      Andras I.
      18 September 2020 @ 21:31
      I'm not praising them in general, only pointing out a few things pertaining to the interview. Obviously this is not the whole picture. And I'm not investing in China - I'm not crazy. Does that confuse your black and white view?
  • TW
    Tom W.
    18 September 2020 @ 21:17
    Mike /Raul PLEASE do a dedicated hour on the financial debt servicing "inevitable" ramification on China. Mike is bringing up possibility (if not probability) of a massive devastating devaluation . Chris said this is the last thing that China would let happen....War with India or Taiwan more probable. I think the personal Xi survival issue brought up makes this unlikely--hope- hope. (Even tho there is escalating saber rattling which, hopefully, is for their nationalism--as mentioned). Enter into this equation China's (et,al.) massive gold buildup and their nationaa crypto fascination as an alternative to their financial and physical destruction. triple thumbsup on this interview- If Juliette Declercq's opinion of our preoccupation with the election is in reality a non event financially--- this could be the biggest story of all. ...
  • JF
    Julian F.
    18 September 2020 @ 18:44
    What is chris balding twitter handle?
    • PB
      Patrick B.
      18 September 2020 @ 19:09
      @BaldingsWorld
  • DS
    David S.
    18 September 2020 @ 18:14
    It would be interesting to see a similar video concerning US and/or Russia presented by Mr. Green. Transparency begins at home and extends to other world players. Mr. Green’s objectivity and respect on RVTV will add to our knowledge while avoiding the normal echo chambers. DLS
  • PB
    Patrick B.
    18 September 2020 @ 18:00
    Wishing Chris all the best back in the US and terribly sad how he was first forced out of China and then Vietnam... Few who have enjoyed living and working in the region want to leave involuntarily. Keep up the good work Prof!
  • NR
    Nathan R.
    18 September 2020 @ 17:47
    The truth is that people believe there is such a thing as peace and war. Intelligence operations are on a war footing at all times. Though the war may be cold or unseen, it goes on at all times. Everyone does it. They must. There is an unforgettable line from The Spy Who Came In From the Cold: "Our work, as I understand it, is based on a single assumption that the West is never going to be the aggressor. Thus, we do disagreeable things, but we're defensive. Our policies are peaceful, but our methods can't afford to be less ruthless than those of the opposition, can they? You know, I'd say, uh... since the war, our methods - our techniques, that is - and those of the Communists, have become very much the same. Yes. I mean, occasionally... we have to do wicked things. Very wicked things, indeed. But, uh, you can't be less wicked than your enemies simply because your government's policy is benevolent, can you?" This sentiment seems to be at the heart of what makes the West semi-permanently uncomfortable with "spying" et al. If your enemy is implacable, you must be also. China has no history, culture or affinity for the rights of the individual (in the Western idiom). It is corporatist and fascist in the purest sense: one finds one's purpose, identity even, in the level of the state's glory. This is antithetical to nearly everything the West holds dear (admittedly with occasionally more than a dollop of hypocrisy). It makes me shudder to see how far our media/tech sectors eagerly desire to push "analytics" and "data" as though reduction of the liberty of the individual is the problem to be solved. I fear we are in the early innings of the Fourth Punic War.
  • PG
    Philippe G.
    18 September 2020 @ 17:26
    Interesting perspective. Thanks for this RV!
  • DS
    David S.
    18 September 2020 @ 17:17
    An especially important presentation and discussion during US election season. Although the focus is on China, I suspect they may be in second place to Russia and surrogates concerning the US elections. I also assume all our friends in the Middle East are also active in this area in their own interest as are we in our interests. Intelligence information has been important since caveman days. As Mr. Green said, you should ask why you are being asked for or given any information. Is it better when the US elections were targeted by Americans as in the Facebook-Cambridge Analytica data breach? It is reasonable that both parties are using every piece of personal data possible to elect their candidates. Transparency is the main antidote, but information is knowingly and easily obfuscated. When being in the certain social clique is the most important goal in one’s life, it is easy to manipulate individuals and their echo chambers. Even complete transparency can be disbelieved. DLS
  • Md
    Martijn d.
    18 September 2020 @ 15:48
    Am I the only one wondering why Michael Green is on a green screen?
    • mw
      michael w.
      18 September 2020 @ 17:11
      It's probably just Zoom, it does that all the time.
  • VP
    Veselin P.
    18 September 2020 @ 16:04
    Had to laugh in the beginning when it was said Fb only wants to sell shoes. And when the question came about the US gov. the answer was "I havent worked with them". I'm anti-spying as much as the next guy, but let's not kid ourselves - the US databases are probably much more advanced. That moment when you're happy to be a nobody
    • DS
      David S.
      18 September 2020 @ 16:39
      Happy to be nobody is a great line in this discussion. DLS
  • VP
    Veselin P.
    18 September 2020 @ 16:39
    In Europe we care about GDPR, and not about Huawei, because so far the only thing we've seen on Huawei is Mr. Trump's pounding on the table and to us it looks like the behavior of a sore loser in a tech race. Also, most people in Europe don't see Europe as being one of the big 3. We see ourselves as being weak and alone, because our former buddy is now a bully
  • SP
    Stephen P.
    18 September 2020 @ 12:38
    Very interesting, more so Mike Green’s comments. As someone who lives in a mildly authoritarian nation, the guest is too glib or naive about the dangers of creeping authoritarianism in the US. My father had to go to France as a 19 year old and almost get killed (2 Purple Hearts) to stop it in WW2. It has to be stopped early on. Re China: scary times if they would go as far as war with India (or Russia) to deal with their internal demographic issues. They should encourage immigration instead but the usual fears of foreigners apply there also. Such unbridled aggression cannot be good for Chinese stocks in the long run.
  • KD
    Kelley D.
    18 September 2020 @ 11:58
    thank you for subject matter expertise beyond the fed and cypto....Real Vision makes me appreciate the fact that when you go deep into subject matters....how limited my knowledge is..
  • cd
    chris d.
    18 September 2020 @ 11:15
    One thing that would be interesting for you both to comment on would be the influence of robotics and AI in productivity and offsetting population decline. Comparing with Japan is informative. Japan turned the corner on population growth to decline a decade or so before China. It’s try their GDP has been impacted but per capital income has been growing fairly consistently. So to what extent can technology substitution for human labour can assist China to navigate this?
  • JS
    John S.
    18 September 2020 @ 10:14
    Excellent
  • Jv
    Jasper v.
    18 September 2020 @ 09:39
    Every state collects data, a control system want more control (if you are not collecting data you are missing out). Secure your own network, use VPN and invest in decentralised projects because in a system where data runs the world you do not want one entity owning your data!
  • BS
    Bernard S.
    18 September 2020 @ 07:44
    I just want to say this professor. You are a brave man, standing by your principles. I have great respect and admiration for you.
    • LF
      Louise F.
      18 September 2020 @ 08:51
      I completely agree. Please keep giving us videos from Mike Green and Chris Balding! Loved the deep discussion of geopolitics in this video.
  • BD
    Bryan D.
    18 September 2020 @ 08:01
    Very timely. Thanks for doing this so soon after the data collection has become exposed