Comments
Transcript
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DWAs far as I understand, it's not like the media in China is bashing on the US/democracy outright everyday. Instead, they just show the gun violence and response to COVID and normal Chinese ppl draw their own conclusions about democracy vs one-party rule. There's a time and place for pushback on authoritarianism, there's a time and place to point and critique, there's also a time to take the plank out of one's own eye. Truth of the matter is the USA has lost significant credibility and soft power since 2001 and if we're to remain THE testimony for democracy, we need to do democracy better. If we can't, we cede the argument thru our failures in action, no amount of debate will convince a Vietnam, Venezuela, a Russia to go towards democracy.
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SGWithout commenting about the right or wrong of what China may or may not be doing, I think it is very naive to think that they are the only ones at this game. EVERY major country (and some minor ones) in the world is at this in one form or the other with whatever objectives they may have. It's a part of the real-politik today shall we say. Is it okay for one country to target another's nuclear installations with virus attacks to take just one example - just because they say they are being misused for weapons? Who is the judge of right or wrong here? I also do not believe that Hua Wei is worse or better than any other telecom vendor on equipment security/spying - the back doors are probably there for all vendors. It's just not publicized. The ability of the NSA to eavesdrop on any conversation or data anywhere if they want to and even extend this capability over whole countries is "known". How does one think they do this except through commercially deployed communication equipment from many US vendors?
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ptAs a European, I firmly support the hawkish US approach to China, however, if Americans decide to reelect Trump than what's the point in them even worrying about China when they are opting for a Russian klepto model at home! Europeans despise Trump because he's an ignorant, illiterate donkey. Elect him again and you are really choosing to go it alone. All this fake Christian dumb anti-science Pence and Pompeo bs, all they care about it money. Who would want anything to do with these lying clowns? Great interview tho, love this shit.
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CXWhat a loser! An academic can't find a decent job in his own country and now pretending to be an expert of Asia. For someone who has lived in China for years and still use the wrong name for the party in China, it shows you he really is as competent as his job prospects.
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JDThank you Real Vision for not being afraid to speak badly about China. (unlike Mark Cuban, Steve Wynn, Michael Bloomberg, and more who all are basicly silent on slavery in China and human rights)
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CPGreat interview but from someone from a small South Asian country I don't see much of a difference between China and the US. Yes, they have different political systems, cultures etc. but the end result tends to be the same. The wants and needs of the rich and powerful are promoted above everyone elses and anything and everything is on the cards. Nothing is off limits for either nation be it spying, invading or political meddling. It's like that scene from the movie The Dictator.
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eaA great conversation. I think it's interesting to consider how the TPP might have strentgthened US influence. I saw more as a national security effort (to contain china) than an economic one. I wouldn't be surprised if, sometime in a not-too-distant future, pulling out of the TPP looks like the biggest national security mistake of the Trump administration. Is revival of this, or something similar, a potential for the future (perhaps under Biden)?
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PQNot saying that China is wonderful but there are some objectives mistakes from the start of the interview. First, the databases used by banks for their customers KYC; external providers are not only supplying small institutions while big banks have their own as Chris says. Large Database maintained by third parties are used widely across all banks, just look at what data are available in Refinitiv World-Check or DJ Factiva. Then saying that US is not building databases on foreign people as large as China, this claim could be taken seriously is Assange or Snowden were unknown but since there has been countless cases and USA even wiring entire countries phone network, it is just amusing. Not so long ago it was acknowledged that Merkel and Sarkozy were tapped by NSA... The discussion about RGPD in Europe is also funny, again Huawei is certainly a problem for europe but so is google or FB. It comes down as often with Americans that you guys are too proud to acknowledge your owns problems or at least discarding the true impact of US politics.
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SBWow - amazing interview. So balanced and insightful. As always, Mike Green asks informed questions.
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scMe thinks that Kyle Bass will be speaking with Chris Balding in the very near future. :) As he should as well as many others.
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PLshallow guest speaker, don't think he understand the full scope of China, first time disappointed in Mike Green's interview.
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DBWhat is stopping China from annexing North Korea? Surely they could take that action without international recourse.
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scThe old Soviet regime, before it was dismantled, sowed seeds of socialism into South American countries back in the 70's; and now we see most of the South and Central American countries having taken up or in the throws of taking up Socialism as their government mandate. China is sowing seeds of doubt and dissention for democracy throughout Africa, Eastern Europe, Asia, and even in Europe and the U.S.; and we are starting to see the increased rioting, distrust, and dissatisfaction with government. It's already so far entrenched and underway, that China is no longer trying to cover it up but shoving in our faces and challenging us to do something about it. I hate to see what will transpire within the next ten years in Europe and the U.S.
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DPInteresting take about the reality of data collection from an autoritarian state. Based on the Snowden testimony, this is still childay compared to the massive systemic data collection undertaken worldwide by the NSA.
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NDIsn't the U.S. trying to avoid a crisis by any means necessary as well? I listened to this interview and found part of it absurd. By far the U.S.A. gathers more intelligence and data on persons globally for it's own benefit than any other country. Next, attempts to blame China for the ongoing / present political and social tension in the U.S.A. is ridiculous. The U.S.A. is mess because it's always been a mess of racial, political and social tensions and the widening divide between the 1 percent and the 99 percent is ramping up tension now especially. China and Russia have little to do with what is happening in the U.S. now. Mike, go to China and check it out for yourself it's much different than propagandized by certain U.S. individuals.
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DBI agree that the Republican government is quite popular in many foreign nations because of the US government's strong geopolitical policy, specifically their goals of normalising CCP behaviour (i.e. forcing the CCP to honour the WTO laws, supply chain redistribution / risk management, delivering their BRI political influence), and their anti war stance (removed ISIS, trops out of Iraq / Afghanistan). Strong leadership from the US has never been more important globally. I appreciate the progressive trade/military policy from the US.
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WLThis appears to be the article from India that Mike Green mentioned: https://www.thehindu.com/opinion/lead/the-great-greying-of-china/article32575480.ece#!. It discusses where the population is going, some implications of that, and questions official population statistics.
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DSAbsolutely fascinating and eye opening conversation.
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FBMike mentioned a recent piece where India challenges some of China's population statistics. Is that available publicly and does somebody have a link?
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APExcellent!
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CDMakes sense. Far from disappointing...???
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YLChris and Michael talked about the population statistics of china. The labor work force peaked sometime in early 2010's, which is correct, but they also said the actual population of China is now declining, which is not true. The population continues to increase, albeit at a slowing rate, and will probably start decreasing in late 2020's
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SpDoes anyone have his Twitter handle?
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JAI wonder about China’s current recovery. They convey themselves as having recovered first, remarkably low covid numbers (yeah we know they are fake numbers but that they are printing that low a number is itself curious to me... ) Also their domestic air travel back to around 90% of pre covid levels, people back to work and industrial production back to a high level. All this wreaks of something preplanned. USD/CNY price action interesting too. Just observations that make me go hmmm. Not offering any thing beyond that. Anyone care to think this forward with me?
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wjThis needs to be free
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HR"In many ways we are being played by all sides."
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ROIs Chris planning to publish online the list of names and organizations that this database contains? If it reads like the world phone book and creates enough concern among politicians and business leaders, then it may restrain China's (Xi's) influence outside their country.
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MFI fear that Putin and Company have discovered the secret sauce to destroy the US. All they have done is open up the bottle and help it spread through society via the Internet. With the death of Justice Ginsburg we are going to see how that hate driven sauce pushed by Putin will trump all decencies. Trump is a liar, McConnell is a liar and let us see how quickly Graham shows himself to be a liar. With the arrival of the Republican Supreme Court the poor, the old and the other have no hope for Justice in the US. I have never owned a gun in my entire life but now that the White Supremacists own the Courts, the Justice Department and the Police it may be time for sane people arm themselves. This morning the future of the US looks bad.
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BRExcellent and important interview. Mr. Balding is doing important work and he can be commended. There is no such thing as a private company in China regardless of what they call themselves. Every Chinese company that is allowed to list on any market worldwide must have received a blessing and direct support from PRC authorities as a matter of policy. All companies, especially those operating overseas, are vehicles to serve Chinese national interests in a variety of ways, many of them nefarious in nature. Whether investors want to accept it or not, an investment in a listed Chinese company or asset on any exchange, NYSE included, is tantamount to an investment in the Chinese Communist Party and is, at the very least, indirect support for their policies.
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DHThank you Mike and Chris for this awesome interview. As a Chinese American who grew up in CCP regime and lived in US for more than 25 years, I can assure you what's discussed in this interview is so true and important. CCP is an evil regime that's waging unconventional wars against democracy, They'll do whatever it takes to win the war., things we can't even imagine such as bio-weapon, Cyber, financial, media war, etc. It's important to understand CCP is an authoritarian regime, but it does NOT represent China and Chinese people. Hope more and more countries and people realize it and work together to take actions! I'm glad to see things are happening inside and outside China. How this unconventional war evolves would have enormous consequences to world's economy and investment strategy.. Just give an example at micro level, spike of capital outflow from China using Bitcoin to evade capital control correlated to some of the biggest BTC move last two years, especially during the last BTC surge to $19K.
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PMSo Chinese have intelligence? What a reveal!
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KBThe “Hoovering up” of personal info. That is a hilarious double entendre applying with equal force to both the vacuum maker and the man - right down to the H being capitalized in both instances. I wonder if the double application occurred to him.
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JSI cannot agree more with this and as European it is so difficult to pass the message alone to everyone else. At least now with COVID some are opening their eyes to the impact that China has in the world when the world ask China to play by the rules. Still, people do not take seriously this major risks. As Always said read „destined for war“ which explains the modern times tucsydes trap with China... It is playing out every day in front of us.
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SLAwesome interview - thanks Mike, Chris, and RV
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ANWe need a Michael Pettis interview please.
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KAEvery Mike Green interview is a must watch.
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JEYou guys are smarter than me.. and, I’ve read a fair amount about China. But, every time I hear the doom and gloom about particulars of China — demographics, economy, real estate, state control and privacy, markets, banking, currency devaluation, avoiding crisis at all costs, etc etc... it seems to me that every point can also be made about the US. There are degrees of difference of course for each topic, but perhaps we should be asking why the US as leader of the “free” world has so many problems in common with communist China and why we are dealing with them with such similar solutions.
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TRSo why is Snowden still in Russia?
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LBIn regards to Vietnam, I highly recommend the documentary "Fog of War."
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PJAll those who remember the world won't forget what they're seen.
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PJAll those who remember the world won't forget what they're seen.
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mcincoherent rambler, let me give you an example was repeated every third sentence.
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SBInsightful and makes to question a lot of things discussed and left unsaid.
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DMFascinating conversation. Thank you, gentlemen. And l look forward to the update in 6 mo.
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AIThanks for the update, always some interesting points! Few points about the productivity/demographic issues (as obvious as they are): 1, China is the world leader in AI and will be the world leader in robotization, cloud tech, green energy, semiconductor and whatever is driving the economy of the next few years - without relying on a shaky market to get there with the first steps. (I recommend everyone who understands enterprise IT to take a look at the enterprise offerings on the Huawei enterprise website for a taste - I don't think the pace of its development was matched by any Western corporations for breadth and depth. It's not only mobile phones and 5G equipment.) 2, There are unlimited possibilities of (productive or temporal placebo) infrastructure investment still untapped in China - not unlike shale that was a major driver of the US overperformance before it faded away. Which they can commit to much easier than any other nation given it's viewed as the state playing it's proper role. Just like what happened with COVID, the general population is unified, very supportive and even proud of the achievement. Looking at ATH for copper and iron ore production/stockpiling in the last 2-3 months, probably not far to be kicked off. 3, Most of the families now are preferring 2 kids (and it shows), something that's actively supported/promoted both financially and culturally by the state. This somewhat invalidates the 2x40% argument - which number I would question: a single child doesn't cost anywhere near 40% of a family's income unless you're from the countryside, sending your kid to a private school in Beijing/overseas - in which case you probably have unknown income (or a rich relative treating it as an investment) anyways. 4, Perception of women: most of the social stigma are luckily disappearing and makes the workforce more open to women - which, in Japan's case was one of the driving force of the boom. Especially in larger cities, independent, well educated and competitive female workforce was not a factor even a decade ago. They don't all want to marry when they leave primary school, when they have a 50% chance for a divorce (not very different from the West). 4, The housing "market" is actively managed on the edge of expectations and possibilities. Still, of course the largest investment of most families is real estate (by far) but it's not as free, bubbling market like it used to be: - Actively seeking out alternatives: a very carefully managed equities market for both foreign but I believe domestic/pension investment (of course it's a learning curve - this year between "BTC bubble" and "Tulip mania" levels) - Tax and legal regulations to limit holdings (which of course can/will be worked around as usual) - A couple of highly leveraged construction companies that were let/made to fail as an example - Raising funds for new projects had further regulations) - Education about expected return profiles for different locations ....etc. 4, And as a European here is what I think about data collection in both countries (and worse, megacaps): "two peas in the same pod" "cut from the same cloth" "horses of the same colour" "one is 19, the other is 20-but-1" 5, Maybe it's time for each to focus on their own development before it's too late? Only economic overperformance can stabilise this era...however unlikely it is (like the Soviet Union in 1988)
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TWMike /Raul PLEASE do a dedicated hour on the financial debt servicing "inevitable" ramification on China. Mike is bringing up possibility (if not probability) of a massive devastating devaluation . Chris said this is the last thing that China would let happen....War with India or Taiwan more probable. I think the personal Xi survival issue brought up makes this unlikely--hope- hope. (Even tho there is escalating saber rattling which, hopefully, is for their nationalism--as mentioned). Enter into this equation China's (et,al.) massive gold buildup and their nationaa crypto fascination as an alternative to their financial and physical destruction. triple thumbsup on this interview- If Juliette Declercq's opinion of our preoccupation with the election is in reality a non event financially--- this could be the biggest story of all. ...
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JFWhat is chris balding twitter handle?
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DSIt would be interesting to see a similar video concerning US and/or Russia presented by Mr. Green. Transparency begins at home and extends to other world players. Mr. Green’s objectivity and respect on RVTV will add to our knowledge while avoiding the normal echo chambers. DLS
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PBWishing Chris all the best back in the US and terribly sad how he was first forced out of China and then Vietnam... Few who have enjoyed living and working in the region want to leave involuntarily. Keep up the good work Prof!
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NRThe truth is that people believe there is such a thing as peace and war. Intelligence operations are on a war footing at all times. Though the war may be cold or unseen, it goes on at all times. Everyone does it. They must. There is an unforgettable line from The Spy Who Came In From the Cold: "Our work, as I understand it, is based on a single assumption that the West is never going to be the aggressor. Thus, we do disagreeable things, but we're defensive. Our policies are peaceful, but our methods can't afford to be less ruthless than those of the opposition, can they? You know, I'd say, uh... since the war, our methods - our techniques, that is - and those of the Communists, have become very much the same. Yes. I mean, occasionally... we have to do wicked things. Very wicked things, indeed. But, uh, you can't be less wicked than your enemies simply because your government's policy is benevolent, can you?" This sentiment seems to be at the heart of what makes the West semi-permanently uncomfortable with "spying" et al. If your enemy is implacable, you must be also. China has no history, culture or affinity for the rights of the individual (in the Western idiom). It is corporatist and fascist in the purest sense: one finds one's purpose, identity even, in the level of the state's glory. This is antithetical to nearly everything the West holds dear (admittedly with occasionally more than a dollop of hypocrisy). It makes me shudder to see how far our media/tech sectors eagerly desire to push "analytics" and "data" as though reduction of the liberty of the individual is the problem to be solved. I fear we are in the early innings of the Fourth Punic War.
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PGInteresting perspective. Thanks for this RV!
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DSAn especially important presentation and discussion during US election season. Although the focus is on China, I suspect they may be in second place to Russia and surrogates concerning the US elections. I also assume all our friends in the Middle East are also active in this area in their own interest as are we in our interests. Intelligence information has been important since caveman days. As Mr. Green said, you should ask why you are being asked for or given any information. Is it better when the US elections were targeted by Americans as in the Facebook-Cambridge Analytica data breach? It is reasonable that both parties are using every piece of personal data possible to elect their candidates. Transparency is the main antidote, but information is knowingly and easily obfuscated. When being in the certain social clique is the most important goal in one’s life, it is easy to manipulate individuals and their echo chambers. Even complete transparency can be disbelieved. DLS
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MdAm I the only one wondering why Michael Green is on a green screen?
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VPHad to laugh in the beginning when it was said Fb only wants to sell shoes. And when the question came about the US gov. the answer was "I havent worked with them". I'm anti-spying as much as the next guy, but let's not kid ourselves - the US databases are probably much more advanced. That moment when you're happy to be a nobody
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VPIn Europe we care about GDPR, and not about Huawei, because so far the only thing we've seen on Huawei is Mr. Trump's pounding on the table and to us it looks like the behavior of a sore loser in a tech race. Also, most people in Europe don't see Europe as being one of the big 3. We see ourselves as being weak and alone, because our former buddy is now a bully
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SPVery interesting, more so Mike Green’s comments. As someone who lives in a mildly authoritarian nation, the guest is too glib or naive about the dangers of creeping authoritarianism in the US. My father had to go to France as a 19 year old and almost get killed (2 Purple Hearts) to stop it in WW2. It has to be stopped early on. Re China: scary times if they would go as far as war with India (or Russia) to deal with their internal demographic issues. They should encourage immigration instead but the usual fears of foreigners apply there also. Such unbridled aggression cannot be good for Chinese stocks in the long run.
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KDthank you for subject matter expertise beyond the fed and cypto....Real Vision makes me appreciate the fact that when you go deep into subject matters....how limited my knowledge is..
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cdOne thing that would be interesting for you both to comment on would be the influence of robotics and AI in productivity and offsetting population decline. Comparing with Japan is informative. Japan turned the corner on population growth to decline a decade or so before China. It’s try their GDP has been impacted but per capital income has been growing fairly consistently. So to what extent can technology substitution for human labour can assist China to navigate this?
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JSExcellent
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JvEvery state collects data, a control system want more control (if you are not collecting data you are missing out). Secure your own network, use VPN and invest in decentralised projects because in a system where data runs the world you do not want one entity owning your data!
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BSI just want to say this professor. You are a brave man, standing by your principles. I have great respect and admiration for you.
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BDVery timely. Thanks for doing this so soon after the data collection has become exposed
Chapters
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Intelligence Collection by Shenzhen Zhenhua Data Technology for the CCP
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Clear Intentions: Doubt and Dissension
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Recognizing External Manipulation and Limiting the Negative Effects of Social Media
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The Current State of Chinese Domestic and Foreign Politics
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Cold War Analogies and Responding to Authoritarian Regimes
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Updating the Relationship Status of Russia and China
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Demographics and China's Domestic Economy
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Credit Growth and the Role of Interest Rate Differentials in Chinese Capital Flows
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Why China Will Avoid Crisis at all Costs
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Monitoring China from the U.S.