Comments
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WMCant see significant deleveraging at all in the USA. He felt the bad loans in the US were muted but student debt and sub prime auto loans are the next big loan busts. Public pension funds are at critical levels. The latter certainly need higher interest rates but if the FED even go up but more than 25 bp this year money could flood to the dollar. Other than that I found Gallo's comments on European banks interesting and sound.
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WMNow when he said he was with Royal Bank of Scotland and before that Goldman Sachs, I had to hold my prejudices in check...... I am on board with the oil call for a second low price back to $30 or below and its already at $40 as end July. I am with Jordan L. on this. Clinton will counter Putin's nationalistic and military posturing, while Trump will challenge China's trade and currency "manipulation" as he sees it. That should be obvious.
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JLAbsolutely. Spot. On. Hillary will provoke Russian, Trump will provoke China, the outcomes are similar. Political risks offer the greatest opportunity for tail events when social pressures are mounting.
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JC@Domingo H. agree and from what I know I think a lot of US 'de-leveraging' has to do with mortgage and bad-debt writeoffs too. Interesting 'snapshot' of their views which I enjoyed. I do get the sense he's a bit of an elitist when discussing the 'populist' candidates and I don't think the Berlusconi/Trump comparison is really that relevant or accurate.
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MEI am curious why Mr. Gallo thinks the American consumer has de-leveraged? Per other RVTV interviews, public & private debt has increased since 2009.
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DSI hope to see Mr. Gallo more often on RVTV. It would have been better to have the interview published earlier. In hindsight it was interesting to see how balanced his projections were at the time. Mr. Gallo is very bright, articulate and practical. What a combination. Very insightful. Thanks. DLS
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NRInteresting interview, but probably too long the time gap between the date he was interviewed and the interview was released... he still talks about the Brexit vote as in the future.
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jsThe fed won't hike.
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DHHe speaks about the degearing in the US but the decline in household debt/GDP has been offset by an increase in corporate debt to GDP. Also total federal debt / GDP went from c65% pre 07 to c100% now. Not obvious to me where the degearing he mentions has taken place. Total debt/GDP is still very elevated (and that's before you take all the off balance sheet liabilities)
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amGood
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CDYawn...
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MHThanks!