Banking Sector Primed for Growth

Published on
March 20th, 2017
32 minutes

Banking Sector Primed for Growth

Think Piece ·
Featuring Paul Schulte

Published on: March 20th, 2017 • Duration: 32 minutes

Paul Schulte’s Asia based, independent research group is highly regarded, specializing in analysis of the nexus between banks, liquidity and corporate credit, with over 27 years in financial markets. Paul’s bottom-up assessment of the global financial sector provides a 360-degree view of the actionable opportunities for investors and his revealing insight into sanctions against Russia and China’s growth in financial technology is compelling. Filmed on March 3, 2017 in Hong Kong.


  • RW
    R W.
    4 April 2017 @ 03:04
    Populism is inflationary because it contracts global growth. What total nonsense
    • RW
      R W.
      4 April 2017 @ 03:10
      And also......the "global algorithm" Spare me, seriously !
  • MY
    Madjid Y.
    2 April 2017 @ 16:23
    We may disagree with his views, but he is providing really good insights into Chinese Tech companies and fintech. These insights could be useful if we see a market correction. On a side note: I don’t think the inflationary forces are caused by Trump or populism, China is the main driver, the ghost cities are no longer empty, the Chinese property bubble is back (higher Iron /Copper prices in the next 6-12 months).
  • MN
    Mark N.
    25 March 2017 @ 17:46
    For the Publications subscribers, I find his Asian NPL outlook curiously contrasting to that of Daniel Tabbush.
  • AH
    Andreas H.
    24 March 2017 @ 19:58
    Like it, 50% of my port are micro to small cap financials :-) I knew he is bullish on stocks before watching the video, because it had significant thumps down... good indicator that he should be right ;-)
  • ww
    will w.
    24 March 2017 @ 02:32
    Come on, gals & guys - Paul's presentation offers a LOT of outside-mainstream thinking & info. WE may disagree w/ various assertions he makes, but there's much value in exposure to such 'variant' views. Yeah, he's long on claims & short on backing. But these things are worth considering anyway, no? Recall his off-the cuff remarks about Italian bank recapitalization, turn in NPLs, other bank deleveragings, recovery of collateral values, & so much more. I certainly don't want RV to be an echo chamber.
  • DW
    Doug W.
    22 March 2017 @ 21:59
    I have enjoyed the bullish stance on China with the last few interviews. The press here in the West has been uber bearish. It is always good to hear opposing views. Also, I enjoyed hearing his bullish thesis on Alibaba. I don't want RV to turn into a stock touting service, but sprinkling some specific ideas with macro views, in my opinion, would be great.
  • BP
    Bryn P.
    22 March 2017 @ 02:10
    I found his comments on Alibaba business operations very interesting (& Jack Ma/Xi Jinping relationship)
  • LC
    Liliana C.
    21 March 2017 @ 21:58
    I'm all for a bullish view as long as it's substantiated with data or a framework that makes sense. So a lot of smoke and no cigar!
  • PS
    Phil S.
    21 March 2017 @ 20:47
    I'm on the otherside of many of the trades described here. I'm going to stick with my positions for now, but will continue to search for counter arguments to my framework.
  • TW
    Thomas W.
    21 March 2017 @ 18:21
    I made it through the first 20 seconds. Checked the calendar. It isn't April 1st, so what gives? I nominate this bozo for grand marshall of the Clown Parade.
  • VA
    Val A.
    21 March 2017 @ 13:22
    which insurance company has 200k agents? was that an order of magnitude error? 20k agents makes sense
  • KV
    Koen V.
    21 March 2017 @ 12:29
    He looks so damned much like Infowars' Alex Jones, but then instead of being a nutjob who believes in reptilian conspiracies, he is a nutjob who believes in the economic recovery.
  • DP
    David P.
    21 March 2017 @ 09:33
    The bullishness coming from these Asia based guys on the Chinese story is very interesting.
  • vt
    vadim t.
    21 March 2017 @ 09:11
    Stephen, because it's a bullshit, the guy has no idea what he is talking about. There is no way Sechin would share Rosneft with Americans, it's completely senseless. They just sold most of it to themselves using schemes with Glencore and Intesa as a cover, with a slice which Qatar got.
  • SD
    Stephen D. | Contributor
    21 March 2017 @ 08:31
    Why did no one comment on the proposition that part of the Trump campaign were bribed by the Russians (in Rosneft shares) to reduce sanctions. And that people who know about it are being killed. If that is even half true it would make Watergate look like a speeding ticket. I agree with posters on the editing, it probably did Paul a disservice.
  • MA
    Maurice A.
    21 March 2017 @ 08:13
    Cool globe behind him though. Anyone know who makes that?
  • NS
    Nic S.
    21 March 2017 @ 03:17
    First part was OK but then he got into his likes and dislikes and it started to feel like cnbc. Not much evidence and lots of opinion. Sorry but this was not up to rv standards.
  • TS
    Tim S.
    21 March 2017 @ 03:04
    He would make a good VC to borrow money from - not in a good way. Sees things from a high level and reverse engineers an understanding, at least on the technology side. Reading press release level material and believing it.
  • CT
    Christopher T.
    21 March 2017 @ 01:45
    This comment section = group think
  • SM
    Stephane M.
    21 March 2017 @ 00:05
    What's the book value of Lehman Brothers!?!?!??!?! :-)
  • GM
    Greg M.
    20 March 2017 @ 23:49
    The same snake.
  • GM
    Greg M.
    20 March 2017 @ 23:48
    The first part of the interview is quite the contrast from Dr. Lacy Hunt. I enjoyed the second part regarding the financial sector coverage. As an American I can attest that both parties are heads of
  • DS
    David S.
    20 March 2017 @ 22:37
    I found Mr. Schulte’s micro views on banking and banking disruption much more interesting and coherent than his macro views. The simple problem with book values of a bank is it may be completely wrong because of derivative exposure in a liquidity crisis. DLS
  • DS
    David S.
    20 March 2017 @ 21:20
    Importantly Trump’s inability to govern is stopping the populist parties taking control in Europe. Populist parties can complain and obstruct, but cannot govern. The American Republic was the shining star of the enlightenment, but our day is passing quickly. The USA has handed the keys to the kingdom to China. China has enormous problems already. For the World’s sake, I wish them luck. DLS
  • RE
    Rachel E.
    20 March 2017 @ 20:59
    First 3 min.utes, I had enough. He is out of touch with reality.
  • DP
    Daniel P.
    20 March 2017 @ 20:04
    DAMN Internet connection, sorry for the 3x posting!
  • DP
    Daniel P.
    20 March 2017 @ 20:03
    I Found that the interview didn't flow at all well without seeing the interviewer or hearing their questions. Perhaps I just miss seeing GW or RP ;) It was too jumpy and too quick to follow and in fairness is probably an injustice to Paul. Interesting to see some bullish views, agree or not with the opinions. We need to know how money managers are thinking, information is key and here on RVT we get to see inside so many minds! Keep bringing the noise guys!
  • CB
    CHRIS B.
    20 March 2017 @ 19:40
    Interesting point of view , always healthy to hear a different point of view
  • SD
    Sebastien D.
    20 March 2017 @ 17:42
    I did not feel very convinced but hanks for bringing a different point of view. It does sound very positive and is at odd with my understanding of the situation, but if the reflation stories is for real then he may ends up making money while we will keep on complaining that valuations don't make sense. He also tried to highlight trends that are interesting tech & finance.
  • SW
    Scott W.
    20 March 2017 @ 17:30
    A fantastic economy??? Really? Full employment? Data suggest most of the new jobs are in low pay services. Deficit "low"? Maybe, but what about ALL THAT DEBT? Nominal growth? Lowest rate since WWII. Agree on the sentiment we guard against confirmation bias; I check that box by listening to this gentleman with an open mind.
  • JH
    Jacqueline H.
    20 March 2017 @ 17:10
    Typically, I'd rather say nothing than be critical, but I had a really hard time listening to this gentleman.
  • DM
    Daniel M.
    20 March 2017 @ 16:55
    Shut up and take my money!!!!!
  • PU
    Peter U.
    20 March 2017 @ 16:23
    oh boy, I just don't agree with this guy.
  • RM
    Richard M.
    20 March 2017 @ 15:13
    Certainly an out of consensus view! He is mighty optimistic. Who knows, I guess he could be right (on "some" of the things he discusses). It's probably good to hear these other opinions just to keep us on our toes and "see" some of the other possibilites out there. He also did have some very interesting ideas on companies in Asia - very good!
  • JC
    John C.
    20 March 2017 @ 14:53
    So, the labor force is going to be harmed by reductions in entitlement programs like Medicaid, welfare, and free care through Obamacare?? That is a gross mischaracterization!! The working people of all those red states he criticizes are tired of paying taxes and seeing their government put its citizens in debt in favor of increased stay-at-home benefits for never working people in those rich blue states that encourage them to reproduce indiscriminately. So wrong!
  • GT
    Graham T.
    20 March 2017 @ 14:47
    I am so sorry RV but this was not one of your better days, the editing was atrocious. Even if you disagree with his point of view (and he is about 12 months late) where was the evidence to back up the opinion? I have a position in Standard Chartered thanks to MI2 highlighting the implications of a steepening yield curve and checking that the FD bought another 140,000 shares. Mmmm, sorry but broker stuff I do not need.
  • JH
    Jesse H.
    20 March 2017 @ 14:42
    An interesting counter view, but lacking evidence and substance. This guy really seems to be drinking the Kool-Aid (everything is great) - for a smaller and smaller number of people each year, I would add.
  • TS
    Tyler S.
    20 March 2017 @ 13:37
    question, is he looking at the same markets and systems I am, unless I am missing something things are not this peachy
  • CD
    Chris D.
    20 March 2017 @ 10:52
    Ha. Is this guy for real? Someone has bought "everything is fantastic"-meme..