Breaking Down the Crude Market

Published on
January 9th, 2017
25 minutes

Breaking Down the Crude Market

Think Piece ·
Featuring Nikhil Dhir

Published on: January 9th, 2017 • Duration: 25 minutes

Oil trader Nikhil Dhir, provides an insider’s guide to the crude market, breaking down supply and demand factors from physical purchasers to speculators, as well as the more recent phenomenon of ETF money. In this Think Piece, Nikhil goes on to cover matching conviction to position sizing and gives a useful insight into trading psychology for rollercoaster markets.


  • MM
    Michael M.
    13 January 2017 @ 01:58
    A date of interview would be very helpful. Unfortunately RV told me they will no longer disclose interview dates.
    • js
      j s.
      1 July 2017 @ 19:49
      why is that?
  • SS
    Steven S.
    16 January 2017 @ 08:48
    Bought a book Financial Founding Fathers by Robert E. Wright 10 years ago. In it says that the U.S. became financially strong back in 1800 from having Cheap Labor & some Resources. Nikhil sounds to me like the multitude of people who have graduated school, but has yet to learn Business Leadership, Customer Service & Human Resources. Rich are getting richer & poor are getting poorer. Loved hearing about all the different angles within the work place thou. Thanks!
  • JL
    Jinny L.
    15 January 2017 @ 18:02
    Interview date is nov 15, 2016
  • gp
    gs p.
    15 January 2017 @ 15:33
    I urge you to consider the following two things. 1. The interview date should appear, ideally continuously, on the video, and 2. a summary of highlights should be available for videos, for the interest of time. Thanks.
  • TE
    Tim E.
    13 January 2017 @ 00:49
    Brings out the crucial point that CAPITAL ALLOCATION being super important, and it not easy to build a system that tells you how to allocate capital.
  • CB
    Cliff B.
    12 January 2017 @ 12:53
    This young man seems to have many extraneous thoughts and is still trying to define himself
  • MC
    Matthew C.
    11 January 2017 @ 15:53
    Anyone starting out as a trader should watch this video every 2 to 3 months, it will be a reassuring experience. Great video from someone who is clearly very in tune with the continual self assessment processes necessary to become a good trader.
  • DK
    Damian K.
    10 January 2017 @ 15:35
    Solid and valuable content. No fluff or bs
  • RM
    Robert M.
    10 January 2017 @ 08:59
    Top traders must understand markets. This guy has his own perspective .
  • CK
    Chris K.
    10 January 2017 @ 05:23
    Interesting insights - thanks RV! Terminology-wise, what does he mean by a "drawdown system"? And also, how does a fund maintain a volatility of 20-25%?
  • JK
    Jeff K.
    10 January 2017 @ 04:39
    Can you try and get Pierre Andurand or Andy Hall next time on oil?
  • DY
    Damian Y.
    10 January 2017 @ 04:29
    Found this interview this really boring
  • RA
    Robert A.
    10 January 2017 @ 00:05
    Excellent. Started watching for "trading oil" and got a bonanza of trading behavioral nuggets---vintage RV. Great takeaways for me that will improve my investment decisions even though I'm not a "trader", which is what our RV curators continually serve up for us. Great job on this one Milton!
  • AA
    Aymman A.
    9 January 2017 @ 21:19
    Simply brilliant! Talks like a trader, not like a confident egomaniac. Would love to know, not the exact system, but the general pronciple of "risk management" using "drawdown" as the main input.
  • RN
    Rodgers N.
    9 January 2017 @ 21:06
    Good INTERVIEW. I am new to the trading Industry, but love it with all my heart. The point of " WORKING as GROUP" not really working for him has encouraged me since i am on my own.
  • JP
    James P.
    9 January 2017 @ 20:39
    Bring this guy back! This is a trader that sounds as if he actually knows how to trade and really understands trader's weaknesses, but also how to improve.
  • WE
    William E.
    9 January 2017 @ 19:28
    Certainly understand "now" that its a good thing I am not a trader. Solid interview.
  • RM
    Richard M.
    9 January 2017 @ 17:49
    Nicely done! It was enjoyable listening to a relatively young trader describe his growth and evolving decision making processes as he learns more about his particular niche in the markets. Really fascinating discussion!
  • KR
    9 January 2017 @ 17:47
    A bit improvised yet very insightful video. Of all, I appreciate the genuine modesty most expressed in the self evaluated success-rate.
  • NR
    Nuno R.
    9 January 2017 @ 16:35
    Was this filmed before OPEC and NOPEC decision to cut?
  • RR
    Raghu R.
    9 January 2017 @ 16:34
    Good: For a concentrated fund, the risk / performance measures are pretty well managed. I particularly liked the part where he mentions his fund can survive with only 30% win rate. Question: Kelly criterion is a fun concept to prove on paper. It is good for building some intuition. Beyond that, the trouble with real life application is in estimating the probability of success in each trial. Does anyone have an example of this with actual market data? Thanks in advance for any pointers.
  • CT
    Christopher T.
    9 January 2017 @ 16:32
    lots of pearls of wisdom, specifically in regard to psychology, risk mgmt/position sizing. key tenet is not how often you are right or wrong, but how much you win or lose when you are right or wrong.
  • RM
    Rainer M.
    9 January 2017 @ 16:17
    nobody really knows ! Good point and honest commentary. Really liked this Interview.
  • DM
    Daniel M.
    9 January 2017 @ 16:16
    I wish they would get more technical into the risk management processes. His breakeven point is a 30% win rate? I would love to see the details of how that works.
  • SB
    Sam B.
    9 January 2017 @ 15:27
    Very solid interview. Love that he points out the huge impact that financial buyers have on oil prices (ETF flows in particular). Listening to the mainstream narrative, one comes away with the impression that demand will always grow, there's only a "supply glut" and OPEC cutting 1 MMB/d will fix everything. I tend to share his view on weaker US demand, but I'd be more curious to get his take on what he thinks of EM demand going forward, China most importantly. Massive EM growth was the biggest tailwind to crude demand in the up-cycle from from 2000-2014... what happens in those economies should have the biggest impact on physical market balance for crude.