Comments
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FOISM Manufacturing down for 5 months in a row, and almost at 50. Housing permits down more than 5% this month. Yield Curve flattening. Unemployment claims rising. I think the cycle is at its peak.
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TWThe "healthy consumer"/ low oil "tax cut" thesis? Blown out of the water since this was recorded by multiple disappointing retail sales numbers. The expansion exists only in Wonderland.
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AEMisses on two points. Lower oil price to be countered by money hungry, debt ridden gov'ts and Employment numbers reflect part time increases only! Not conducive to expanding economy.
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ROThe real economy is not just the S&P 500, in fact most US jobs are not due to companies in this index. Betting that the US market won't continue to rise from its overvalued level is a safe bet.
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DLI tend to disagree but you must always listen to the counter argument to your beliefs.
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RBTalking in circles. Can't have it both ways. See Butler on commodity prices. US rails, all 100% businesses, not seeing robust volume deltas. Dow Theory: rails as eecon indicator.
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RPDon’t buy his happy persecutive on growth trends- the US economy is stuck in low gear due to poor monetary, fiscal and regulatory policy and cost of most things are up, except wages. Not good!
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WMCant buy it. Unemployment #s are understated. Debt excessive. Job quality worst in nations history. Stocks overvalued & confidence extreme. High % pop. on welfare. Record low interest. wake up!
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JSDon't buy into the bull case at all
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PWI just don't see a bull econ, with 140mil US peeps collecting some kind of Gov handout
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KAHealth care $ = funny money. Lots of folks benefit & pay. Oil $ = real $ that goes to fewer folks. Not convinced re US bull equity market. Yet Simon Ogus: possible in 1st stage of currency collapse.
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FSInteresting perspective on both US econ and markets. I do think his perfunctory mention of health care costs misses the mark. By all measures I'v seen, those costs increase significantly soon.
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CCOil prices are lower. I believe it is going to be more than offset by higher health insurance cost (for marginal earners) and lower earnings due to dollar strength for US multinationals.
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jaa thoughtful perspective.