The Generational Deflation Gap

Published on
December 24th, 2019
Duration
38 minutes

The Generational Deflation Gap

Tony Greer Interviews ·
Featuring Nicholas Pardini

Published on: December 24th, 2019 • Duration: 38 minutes

Nicholas Pardini, portfolio manager and founder of Davos Investment Group, sits down with Tony Greer to describe his macro framework. Pardini argues that different generations are subject to different effective inflation rates, which is having profound knock-on effects in politics as well as in the economy. Pardini then shares part of his investment thesis, and outlines how he got his start in the investment business. Filmed on November 19, 2019, in New York. Find more info about Davos Invest Group here: http://davosig.com and find more of Nicholas's research here: http://causeandeffectreport.com.

Comments

Transcript

  • js
    jeffrey s.
    17 January 2020 @ 08:20
    Out of all the i/v's I've watched, I'm highly confident that Greer or Underhill's personality will attract the next market genius. Four millenials taught me how to trade (no help from the CFA exams in that area), so I am confident they are out there. Keep searching my friend.
  • SR
    Steve R.
    24 December 2019 @ 18:14
    I enjoyed the interview. However, Tony, I would have appreciated a follow up question on the cost of living in San Francisco and the presidential vote. San Franciscans had high housing costs in 2016 and did not vote for the “out of power” candidate. Why would it affect the San Franciscan (or West Coast) vote this time?
    • TG
      Tony G. | Contributor
      6 January 2020 @ 18:18
      great point.
  • TD
    Thomas D.
    24 December 2019 @ 20:11
    Would like to hear more from Pardini.
    • TG
      Tony G. | Contributor
      6 January 2020 @ 18:18
      so it shall be done.
  • BA
    Bruce A.
    24 December 2019 @ 22:06
    Enjoyed this tremendously. Nicholas is someone to watch. Thanks for bringing him to Real Vision, Tony.
    • TG
      Tony G. | Contributor
      6 January 2020 @ 18:18
      my pleasure Bruce.
  • RM
    Ryan M.
    25 December 2019 @ 16:20
    Quite impressive. Nicholas is clearly a deep and original macro thinker. Please make him a regular! Since he's in the California area it would be such a treat to see him in conversation with Mike Green as well. Tony G has such a terrific network and I absolutely love his practitioner's style of interviewing. He has this unique way of maintaining a deep theoretical conversation while keeping focused and anchored on how it all ties into tradeable ideas.
    • TG
      Tony G. | Contributor
      6 January 2020 @ 18:17
      Really kind of you to say thank you.
  • sc
    sung c.
    27 December 2019 @ 03:59
    Mr. Pardini dislikes cryptocurrency because "it lacks an implicit collateral behind it". He is missing the point that Bitcoin's limited supply is the new collateral appeal to a world of people who feel their savings are being deflated away by the Central Bank's constant printing and manipulation of currencies and economies. He cites the frustrations of the Millennial generation and yet doesn't seem to comprehend that is exactly this frustration which drives so many Millennials do embrace BTC; because it is their only way of getting finally away from under the control of the messed up system they have been born into that no one seems to have a solution to. It is clear the central banks and governments are also witnessing this frustration and change among the masses, and that is the reason for a push by many governments for a government backed cryptocurrency. This of course is the height of ignorance, because they believe people will be stupid enough to believe that simply by putting the word "cryptocurrency" in front of something, they will fool the general masses into believing it is not just another form of fiat currency they can manipulate. This is the beauty of BTC for the masses, a way to start anew; and the danger to the control of central banks, which the latter does not want to lose from holding hostage to fund their own greed.
    • TG
      Tony G. | Contributor
      6 January 2020 @ 18:17
      This comment is the beauty of real vision. Great perspective Sung C.
  • SG
    Steve G.
    28 December 2019 @ 17:08
    Its rare to see someone talk in such a direct and truthful nature and it made for a very interesting and worthwhile interview.
    • TG
      Tony G. | Contributor
      6 January 2020 @ 18:15
      impactful comment Steve. REALLY appreciate that. TG
  • JL
    James L.
    28 December 2019 @ 02:57
    i subscribed to watch the videos early but i realized this interview is more than a month old anyways... what's the point of this if i can just watch old videos on youtube?
    • M.
      Milton .. | Founder
      28 December 2019 @ 17:35
      James, scheduling has always been part of RV since we launched in 2014. This is a must have if we want to spread out quality content. Everything that is discussed in this video is good a week, a month or even three months after the initial film date.
    • XS
      Xin S.
      29 December 2019 @ 18:08
      Milton, I think James is arguing what the subscriber's privilege? The timing or exclusive content? Or both? Sometimes I feel the same way.
    • DS
      David S.
      3 January 2020 @ 04:12
      It is worth 50 cents a day to go to the website and have everything organized for me. All the content is a bonus. DLS
  • JM
    Jim M.
    27 December 2019 @ 15:13
    Love RV but always remember and never forget that it's bearish tilt can be injurious to your portfolio/profession.
    • DS
      David S.
      29 December 2019 @ 14:12
      You are correct up to a point. At some point the money will quit flowing into the market raising all indexes. RVTV's bearish tilt will keep you on your toes. When the market turns and you are quickly out, you have won both ways. Good Luck. DLS
    • WM
      Will M.
      29 December 2019 @ 14:44
      I don't understand the occasional comments on here about RV being "Bearish". Anybody with any ability to read history can clearly see the worlds financial situation is incredibly precarious. Clearly Jim, the US national debt of 23 trillion and also on an exponential climb when looked at over the last 50 -60 years doesn't worry you? Clearly the destroyed bond market in Europe and Japan and effective negative interest rates doesn't bother you? Clearly the high valuations of the US stock market and the fact that stock buybacks are responsible for a huge proportion of stock market appreciation doesn't bother you? Clearly the terrible state of State pension plans and many private pension plans doesn't bother you? Clearly the soaring costs of Medicare and Social Security doesn't bother you? Clearly the historical ultra low interest rates now forcing retirees into risky equity and high yield debt doesn't bother you? I could go on and on and my apologies, but I have been around now for almost 65 years and it is obvious to me that a crisis is just around the corner in multiple areas. If something can't go on for ever it will stop. Its all about confidence Jim. Once the point of recognition is reached the game will be over. Then the real fun will begin as an angry electorate seeks vengeance on the wealthy and the politicians. This will not just be a US phenomenon. Europe will likely be worse. My recommendation Jim is you adopt a bearish attitude before its too late and just focus on those areas where some gains could materialize in bad situations.
    • JM
      Jim M.
      31 December 2019 @ 17:28
      Suggest exploring what folks like Brent Johnson have contended; stocks may run higher not because things are/get so good but because they get so bad.
    • WM
      Will M.
      1 January 2020 @ 16:06
      Well in fact, although I am very bearish I am fully on board with Martin Armstrong's model WEC and ECM predictions that may indeed see a panic out of sovereign debt and other public debt and into quality stocks and real assets. I follow Brent Johnson's thoughts as well. If anyone out there wants a "just the facts" approach to government debt and interest rate manipulations to control crisis I strongly recommend http://danielamerman.com
  • SB
    Scott B.
    31 December 2019 @ 11:30
    Good interview with unique perspectives, but wish we would see the interviews on RV closer to the interview dates to make the comments more timely. Thanks
  • NN
    Nenko N.
    27 December 2019 @ 11:00
    What does it mean for the fundamental analysis to be the gamma of your trade?
    • NP
      Nicholas P.
      30 December 2019 @ 21:02
      What I mean by that is the fundamental valuation potential and degree of earnings/macro data improves provides the expected upside or downside price target. Stronger fundamentals means bigger magnitude of any post technical breakout move in direction of thesis.
  • EK
    Edward K.
    26 December 2019 @ 16:55
    Agree about state pension obligations. Just wondering how many states will start taxing Social Security benefits in the next decade.
    • DS
      David S.
      29 December 2019 @ 14:18
      States will have to tax everything under the sun to meet all kinds of obligations. DLS
  • DP
    D P.
    28 December 2019 @ 19:55
    Unique perspective in some respects. I really enjoyed this interview. Nice work bringing this gentlemen in Tony!
  • MH
    Matthew H.
    27 December 2019 @ 15:57
    Nov 19th.... really?
  • MJ
    Miles J.
    25 December 2019 @ 17:53
    Great interview. Interesting thesis on Consumer Staples. I think he's that its overvalued. I think his point on what is a "staple" is a very U.S centric view. The companies that make up the majority of that index are global companies that operate in a lot of countries. The cigarette business for example is essentially a global mafia of a few companies. And since many countries still can't figure out how to supply their populations with clean drinking water, KO and PEP will still be solid bets
    • SC
      Sam C.
      26 December 2019 @ 17:35
      Dark investment thesis on KO and PEP. It sparked my curiosity so I just looked this up, PEP has more revenues then all pharma companies except JNJ (PEP 64B and JNJ 81B) . in essence a soft drink company makes more money than all those companies trying to heal you. Sweet.
  • AK
    Ado K.
    25 December 2019 @ 10:17
    Bitcoin can be very hard for people to understand, and so can power money as a concept. Some people think it is okay to buy paper gold or paper Bitcoin. Some people think they have gold and not an IOU for gold when they store it with a third party. Cognitive dissidence is a real thing, and cognitive reality or as I like to call it intellectual gravity will teach a lot of people a valuable lesson. Bitcoin will within roughly 1 year have the highest stock to flow of any asset we humans have ever seen. It together with gold is the only asset that can truly be categorized as power money. If you choose to buy gold and/or Bitcoin please buy the actual thing, not a paper claim, and store it yourself. In the 30s all the people who had their gold in vaults at the bank had it stolen by the government. Bitcoiners who trusted exchanges to hold their coins in many cases lost all their coins. When you have a true hard asset with provable limited amountness, do not let anybody elses grummy little fingers touch it! Decent interview, but the Bitcoin and gold stuff was just irresponsibly bad.
    • UJ
      Ulf J.
      26 December 2019 @ 08:24
      Own the real thing is important and have it in your own possession, Bitcoin was the reason for it to come out just because someone thought the monetary system was broken or was it for a new economy. General Kwast talks about unsecured Internet and space where you can listen to the future and why not understanding Bitcoin and blockchain will make you out of a good investment. will we use gold or cash in space? maybe gold on blockchain.
    • UJ
      Ulf J.
      26 December 2019 @ 08:27
      the link to General Kwast's speech. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KsPLmb6gAdw Trumps space Force and blockchain goes hand in hand
  • BE
    Benjamin E.
    26 December 2019 @ 01:12
    Great discussion. Thanks.
  • RN
    ROGER N.
    25 December 2019 @ 16:10
    Great Interview! Clear, down-to-earth speaking style, to the point, no BS....The investment themes look interesting. Would love to see Nicholas on again.
  • NT
    Nicholas T.
    25 December 2019 @ 10:18
    Someone with a truly macro POV going back decades. It's the key to understanding how history repeats itself but more importantly, how this time is different, and hence where to invest. Few people out there are able to connect the dots between the 1% and the rest of the population like this guy can.
  • GF
    Gordon F.
    25 December 2019 @ 01:14
    "...because we know that 85% of you who start a video on Real Vision /insert new text/ now hit STOP about 35 seconds before the clock runs out." The good thing about these ads is that I hit stop before the video flips over to a different one that have probably already seen, making it easier to read the comments. Having said this, I really enjoyed this interview. The concept of differing inflation rates for different age cohorts is also new to me, and fundamentally important, I think.
  • AA
    A A.
    25 December 2019 @ 00:45
    Interesting interview. As it relates to demographical aspects, that were discussed earlier in the interview there is an interesting book called " Empty Planet" that is written by Darrell Bricket and John Ibbitson and it speaks to some challenges that are not well discussed in the investment world at large and in general media for that matter and is well worth a read. I think taking Nicholas's overview into consideration and supplementing some of the data in the book makes for some difficult longer term challenges to growth and perspectives of growth overall as we have come to know it. And the subsequent debate that will ensue in many markets as to what really is causing the inflation aspersions of markets to take place if real demand as we have come to know simply is not there anymore. The markets underlying structure will be up for debate if humanity's grow rate itself is plateauing and or even perhaps declining.
  • CB
    Clifford B.
    24 December 2019 @ 18:26
    Great interview. Enter plug for undervalued EMM's here.
  • AP
    Adam P.
    24 December 2019 @ 17:44
    Wonderful interview. Great job, boys. Thumbs up!
  • SR
    Sean R.
    24 December 2019 @ 17:14
    I have been thinking the same thing about getting some younger points of view from upcoming professionals.Would love to see more
  • RA
    Ryan A.
    24 December 2019 @ 13:59
    I think he make some great points, and would hope to see him back next year.
  • DF
    Diamantino F.
    24 December 2019 @ 13:14
    Thank you Tony for your great interviews and thank you Nicholas, best wishes and Xmas