Invested in Brazil and long term Bull on Brazil...this video is spot on. Great Jens, Thanks a lot

Most of the good stuff that might happen in Brazil with Bolsonaro as president are already priced in. Locals in Brazil (who by and large drive local assets) are very long BRL and rates, Brazil is priced for perfection and a lot of things could go wrong from here. You basically have a group of outsiders (Guedes, Bolsonaro and his PSL party) incoming to try to put though a very ambitious reform agenda in the Brazilian congress and it is far from clear they will be able to do that, especially given their lack of experience in dealign with very complex congressional politics in Brazil. I am not saying it's impossible, but for BRL to get to 3.50 the execution of the reform agenda would have to be flawless. And whoever is at least somewhat experienced in investing in Brazil would tell you that "Brazil is not for beginners"

I am not buying the USD shortage thesis, that is the main risk to buying back into EM debt. Main reasons: USD over-issued in 2018 and will issue less next year; US corporates are going to issue much less next year; EM USD debt issuance next year will also be down. QT and rate hikes will likely pause next year (and if one pauses, the other will too). US external deficits are fat and getting fatter. Weak demand + decent USD supply does not point to another EM funding squeeze, generally. Of course there are outliers and basket cases to avoid.

I wonder why the thumbs down for the vid. Do the dislike the idea (shorting dollar against real with 15% target) or the presentation or maybe his suit (lol)? There already has been a significant move in his favor and I bet he already had this trade on in time for that before this got posted. I'm not so bullish on Brazil, it's just about a global reflation attempt, as is becoming clear to all or should be already. The EM-commodity investments are the best bang for your back in such a scenario, but if/when the global reflation falters, it turns down fast again. Nimble is the word. I think the contributor is positioned well - but it's risky and it's just a trade. Set your own technical levels and manage risk with stops & discipline. Then go to church Sunday and pray, lol.

I wonder why the thumbs down for the vid. Do the dislike the idea (shorting dollar against real with 15% target) or the presentation or maybe his suit (lol)? There already has been a significant move in his favor and I bet he already had this trade on in time for that before this got posted. I'm not so bullish on Brazil, it's just about a global reflation attempt, as is becoming clear to all or should be already. The EM-commodity investments are the best bang for your back in such a scenario, but if/when the global reflation falters, it turns down fast again. Nimble is the word. I think the contributor is positioned well - but it's risky and it's just a trade. Set your own technical levels and manage risk with stops & discipline. Then go to church Sunday and pray, lol.