Disney vs. Netflix

Published on
June 20th, 2019
22 minutes

Disney vs. Netflix

Trade Ideas ·
Featuring David Trainer

Published on: June 20th, 2019 • Duration: 22 minutes

David Trainer, CEO of New Constructs, returns to Real Vision to update his winning trade on Disney and to discuss how the company's new streaming service, Disney Plus, will fare against its competition. He discusses the current expectations for Netflix's profitability, highlights Disney's growth outlook, and suggests how best to play the situation, in this interview with Justine Underhill. Filmed on June 18, 2019.



  • DB
    Daniel B.
    22 June 2019 @ 09:30
    Netflix actually will reach his 'yeah that's unlikely' level of 800 million subscribers in 2nd quarter of 2026 at current growth rates when I chucked the figures in a spreadsheet. I don't really think it will myself...but you never know. Growing popularity in India and Mexico too
    • LE
      Loui E.
      24 June 2019 @ 04:12
      Over $10 USD per month for Netflix subscription. What are the wages in India and Mexico per month? How much is Netflix going to charge in those countries? Will they pay even $5 USD/month for netflix? Growth??!?
  • PC
    Peter C.
    22 June 2019 @ 04:18
    Crystal clear. Why is NFLX so high for so long? btw I have been shorting NFLX with bear call spreads since Oct2018 with modestly +ve results.
  • TR
    Travis R.
    20 June 2019 @ 16:16
    Cogent analysis; Long DIS and AVOID NFLX. Shorting based on valuation often leads to disaster.
  • PN
    Paul N.
    20 June 2019 @ 15:37
    The bit abiut CEOs compensation based on return on invested capital is critical for long term plays going forward. Too many companies are incentivising the directors to destroy the value of the company for short term stock price increases. If anyone knows some other companies that use this incentive model please share!
  • SW
    Scott W.
    20 June 2019 @ 15:19
    "The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent". Yes. But can it stay that way longer than a healthy human lifespan? Taking the world as it is rather than how you think it should be is the key to happiness (it's said), but I'd still love to see people like D. Trainer proven correct by virtue of their overwhelming logic and wisdom.
  • RE
    Richard E. | Contributor
    20 June 2019 @ 15:09
    The 'market can stay irrational..' quote is Keynes and not Buffet. Don't believe it was in regards to shorting either. Not that it isn't applicable. Just wanted to clarify
  • LJ
    Liam J.
    20 June 2019 @ 15:09
    I happen to have added disney and netflix to my portfolio in april 2017. So far ROE on netflix 143% Disney only 20% But i have to agree it's been on a run lately and from a rational perspective looking at both companies i'd rather own disney long term than netflix.
  • CM
    C M.
    20 June 2019 @ 15:04
    Excellent thesis on Disney. Agree with your comments on Netfilx's original content. It is usually not that strong and it is tough being in the entertainment "hit" business. Might have to hold off on buying Disney to get it at a better price, but long term, a great investment.