Economic Illusions & Bond Market Realities

Published on
December 7th, 2018
14 minutes

Economic Illusions & Bond Market Realities

Trade Ideas ·
Featuring Komal Sri-Kumar

Published on: December 7th, 2018 • Duration: 14 minutes

As equities continue to sell off, Dr. Komal Sri-Kumar, president of Sri-Kumar Global Strategies, revisits his thesis on bonds and reviews where yields are ultimately headed. In this interview with Brian Price, he reveals his recession call for next year, considers risks to the thesis, and highlights how to profit from the opportunity. Filmed on December 6, 2018.


  • MT
    Martelle T.
    16 August 2019 @ 07:02
    wow 10 yr at 1.5 now!!!! great call Dr.
  • DS
    David S.
    9 December 2018 @ 22:07
    This is a general comment, not about this video which I enjoyed: There is no time in history that was anything like now. When one sees a video of a Chinese street beggar able to receive money using WeChat, one sees that poverty is one of the few constants. Anyone can list a hundred disruptive and/or dangerous financial scenarios currently. Even portfolio hedging has major counterparty risk like 2008. My investments are 80% in short-term cash equivalents and 5% gold. I would love to churn my account every morning, but the lack of any clear vision of next week, much less next year, keeps my hands in my pockets. For what it is worth. DLS
    • CM
      C M.
      11 December 2018 @ 16:44
      I am with you on this thinking. Don’t have a good feeling about the future.
  • VS
    Victor S. | Contributor
    7 December 2018 @ 22:01
    Good points ... but tax cuts on the individual end did pay for themselves . On the corporate side is lag about $100 billion because it was a 40 % cut . This will resolve itself next year if growth is the same as this year?
    • SM
      Sarit M.
      9 December 2018 @ 20:35
      Trader Vic? Good to see you around.
  • AH
    Ali H.
    9 December 2018 @ 08:17
    Is it bad if the only buyer of American debt is the Federal Reserve. If so how? Isn’t Japan like this currently. Bank of Japan owns almost everything…
  • KL
    Ken L.
    8 December 2018 @ 20:27
    The theory about the yield curve inverting and then the equity markets rally is heavily talked about on mainstream business TV (CNBC / Bloomberg). The facts also proves this theory with the chart shown in the video. However, when everyone is talking about the potential inversion and then an equity rally, I am questioning if it will even happen this time.
  • DS
    David S.
    7 December 2018 @ 19:09
    Always a pleasure to listen and learn from Mr. Sri-Kumar. Over the last year the major US indexes are up a few percent. From listening to the news, you would think they are in free fall. Certainly, many of the high flyers’ P/Es are deflated, but everyone said they were way overpriced. For stock investors the market is the economy and should be protected at all costs. In fact, the market should be driven by future business profits to keep any sense of balance. The Fed should raise in December and stop any forecasting of any future rate increases. It has been proven ad nauseam that no one can predict the future. Why should the Fed set itself up for failure? Slow rate increases by the Fed will force out zombie companies. In addition, it will help companies to have a reasonable hurdle rate as discussed by Mr. Druckenmiller. A three percent ten-year yield is hardly a restrictive policy. Tariffs and trade wars will destroy corporate profits thereby cause major market meltdowns. DLS
    • TM
      Timothy M.
      8 December 2018 @ 19:53
      Good comments. I totally agree the Fed needs to raise in December. The 10 years of QE and ZIRP has allowed too many zombie companies to access capital from uninformed investors chasing a modest return on their capital. When the market turns, they will be running for the exits trying to a return of their capital, but it will be too late. Uber and Lyft going public is a sign they early investors are trying to escape before the free money window closes.
  • SJ
    Sy J.
    8 December 2018 @ 11:48
    The market is transitioning from a sugar high based on easy money, deficit spending to a ketogenic flu. Burning sugar is easy, burning fat is work. We will get better but much pain ahead.
  • EF
    Eric F.
    8 December 2018 @ 05:11
    Could definitely listen to this gentleman for an hour and be sure to listen something new.
  • HJ
    Harry J.
    8 December 2018 @ 02:52
    Good straight talk. No On the other hand. Thanks to RVTV
  • JH
    Jesse H.
    7 December 2018 @ 21:34
    Agree with Tito. This guy is great and super sharp - please bring him back. Thanks guys.
  • TE
    Tito E.
    7 December 2018 @ 20:17
    I'd very much like to see a longform interview with Mr. Sri-Kumar
  • LJ
    Lucille J.
    7 December 2018 @ 19:09
  • rr
    rlw r.
    7 December 2018 @ 16:28
    Yep, this was really good guys - thanks!