End of the Cycle?

Published on
April 26th, 2019
Duration
15 minutes


End of the Cycle?

Trade Ideas ·
Featuring Kevin Smith

Published on: April 26th, 2019 • Duration: 15 minutes

Kevin Smith, founder & CIO of Crescat Capital, joins Real Vision for his first Trade Ideas interview to discuss his bearish bet on the stock market. He reviews a variety of valuation metrics, highlights the flashing red signals from his macro indicators, and discusses how to make the trade, in this interview with Jake Merl. Filmed on April 24, 2019.

Comments

Transcript

  • AC
    Andrew C.
    29 April 2019 @ 01:40
    Can somebody please explain why the length of this business cycle is brought to support the bear case so often? Do they remember the GFC and how big it was? Has anybody normalised business cycle length versus the size of the recession that was had? Normalising these, I would imagine we still have 4 or 5 years of this bull market to go. The GFC was bloody big. The central banks don't want anything like that again and will do anything, absolutely anything, to avoid it. Four or five year more; let's go....
  • MM
    MC M.
    26 April 2019 @ 19:58
    Good analysis overall here. Thanks. I've been through 3 major market crashes and have to ask Real Vision to interview a few bulls to offset our overall pessimism. The up market can go up longer than logical and longer than our shorts can last. Where is the money coming from that pushes the market up seemingly every week? Presenting both perspectives helps me balance my strategies.
    • JH
      JP H.
      27 April 2019 @ 00:00
      Almost all of the financial media outlets have a bullish bias and so do the guests they feature. The dominant sentiment in financial markets today is historically bullish. Where is the money coming that pushes the market up? Buybacks, fund managers seeing inflows who have to invest, retail investors. It is still very bullish out there and the only bears left are the ones featured on this site.
    • TJ
      Terry J.
      28 April 2019 @ 13:16
      I agree with JP H, and also suggest that if you haven't already seen it to watch the excellent Real Vision discussion Brian Reynolds and Tyler Neville had a few weeks ago, which gives persuasive reasons why the melt up powered by buybacks could go on some time (Brian suggested possibly as much as three years) yet!
  • KA
    Koka A.
    28 April 2019 @ 06:08
    This is called catching falling knifes :) Good analysis though
  • CH
    Colin H.
    26 April 2019 @ 15:29
    Bold
    • WM
      William M.
      27 April 2019 @ 09:38
      He has been saying it for a couple of years though.
  • RL
    Ricardo L.
    26 April 2019 @ 17:48
    This is exactly the same presentation from Mr Costa
    • WM
      William M.
      27 April 2019 @ 09:37
      They both work at Crescat Capital.
  • DS
    David S.
    26 April 2019 @ 18:41
    Excellent analysis. I agree and have agreed for a long time; yet we are triple topping. It was easy to make the same case for years. Why is it so different this time - above my paygrade? Portfolios can be easily hedged, the options market is huge, corporations are buying up their stock reducing supply, the 1% have so much money to invest but limited profitable opportunities, global trade wars, the internet allows consumers to drive down prices, potential for MMT, sovereign wealth funds, tons of loan potential in banks from QE - the beat goes on. I am not saying that everything will not hit the fan but being wrong for two years is being wrong for two years. Mr. Smith is smart, well educated and articulate. Let’s focus on why the timing is different so far and invite Mr. Smith back. DLS
    • WY
      Weikun Y.
      26 April 2019 @ 23:54
      I agree.
    • mb
      michael b.
      27 April 2019 @ 04:34
      I agree too.
  • BN
    Barrett N.
    27 April 2019 @ 04:23
    Excellent Analysis & Interview. Excellent insight. Curious, w corporate debt levels approaching 50% below Inv Grade in iRussell 2000, why Short S&P & not the same PUTs/short on the IWM? Balance sheets are worse. Will have to Suspend Buybacks & Dividend /cuts to shore balance sheet. Credit Rating Downgrades. Forced bond sales from insurance, Mutual Co’s that can’t hold newly ranked credit rated bonds. etc. Enjoyed interview.
  • MG
    Miguel G.
    26 April 2019 @ 13:55
    Nice job Kevin I love your firms work. I cropped out your charts and added them to my macro journal. Really enjoyed this video as it was super informative.
    • LR
      Luiz R.
      26 April 2019 @ 17:12
      Miguel, what software do you use or recommend for creating a journal? Evernote?
  • MM
    M. M.
    26 April 2019 @ 15:39
    Shorter term looks somewhat bullish though.
  • RI
    R I.
    26 April 2019 @ 12:47
    Catalyst = market overvalued. Last I checked, valuation has never been a catalyst. Still generally agree with the broad theme that the market is topping, and likely taking the form of a traditional broadening top pattern like a drunk wandering around aimlessly.
  • GC
    George C.
    26 April 2019 @ 12:10
    Superb entry onto the Real Vision stage. Will be interesting to see if Kevin's thesis plays out. He's confident!
  • GR
    George R.
    26 April 2019 @ 11:57
    Great interview. Lots of excellent supporting charts to explain the thesis! Encore.
  • gg
    georgy g.
    26 April 2019 @ 09:27
    Love Kevin, pls bring him back for the full feature interview

Mark Yusko

Morgan Creek Capital Management, Co- Founder, CEO, & CIO

Mark Yuskois the Founder, CEO and Chief Investment Officer of Morgan Creek Capital Management. He is also the Managing Partner of Morgan Creek Digital Assets. Morgan Creek Capital Management was founded in 2004 and currently manages close to $2 billion in discretionary and non-discretionary assets. Prior to founding Morgan Creek, Mr. Yusko was CIO and Founder of UNC Management Company (UNCMC), the Endowment investment office for the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. Before that, he was Senior Investment Director for the University of Notre Dame Investment Office.Mr. Yusko has been at the forefront of institutional investing throughout his career. An early investor in alternative asset classes at Notre Dame, he brought the Endowment Model of investing to UNC, which contributed to significant performance gains for the Endowment. The Endowment Model is the cornerstone philosophy of Morgan Creek, as is the mandate to Invest in Innovation. Mr. Yusko is again at the forefront of investing through Morgan Creek Digital Assets, which was formed in 2018. Morgan Creek Digital is an early stage investor in blockchain technology, digital currency and digital assets through the firm’s Venture Capital and Digital Asset Index Fund.Mr. Yusko received a BA with Honors from the University of Notre Dame and an MBA in Accounting and Finance from the University of Chicago.

Anthony Scaramucci

SkyBridge Capital, Founder & Co-Managing Partner

Prior to founding SkyBridge in 2005, Scaramucci co-founded investment partnership Oscar Capital Management, which was sold to Neuberger Berman, LLC in 2001. Earlier, he was a vice president in Private Wealth Management at Goldman Sachs & Co. In 2016, Scaramucci was ranked #85 in Worth Magazine’sPower 100: The 100 Most Powerful People in Global Finance. In 2011, he received Ernst & Young’s “Entrepreneur of the Year –New York” Award in the Financial Services category. Anthony is amember of the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), vice chair of the Kennedy Center Corporate Fund Board, a board member of both The Brain Tumor Foundation and Business Executives for National Security (BENS), and a Trustee of the United States Olympic & Paralympic Foundation. He was a member of the New York City Financial Services Advisory Committee from 2007 to 2012. In November 2016, he was named to President-Elect Trump’s 16-person Presidential Transition Team Executive Committee. In June 2017, he wasnamed the Chief Strategy Officer of the EXIM Bank. He served as the White House Communications Director for a period in July 2017. Scaramucci, a native of Long Island, New York, holds a Bachelor of Arts degree in Economics from Tufts University and a Juris Doctor from Harvard Law School.

Michael Saylor

MicroStrategy, Co-Founder

Mr. Saylor is a technologist, entrepreneur, business executive, philanthropist, and best-selling author. He currently serves as Chairman of the Board of Directors and Chief Executive Office of MicroStrategy, Inc. (MSTR). Since co-founding the company at the age of 24, Mr. Saylor has built MicroStrategy into a global leader in business intelligence, mobile software, and cloud-based services. In 2012, he authoredThe Mobile Wave: How Mobile Intelligence Will Change Everything, which earned a spot onThe NewYork TimesBest Sellers list. Mr. Saylor attended the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, receiving an S.B. in Aeronautics and Astronautics and an S.B. in Science, Technology, and Society.

Alex Saunders

Nugget's News, Founder & CEO

Alex Saunders is the founder and CEO of Nugget’s News, a digital media company focused on all things crypto. Alex has been captivated by cryptocurrency since 2012 and in 2017 he began educating globally on the benefits of cryptocurrency and how to safely acquireit. Nugget’s News has been listed as a top-20 podcast by Business Insider, ShapeShift and Lifehacker and has over 120k YouTube subscribers with 9 million total views.Alex is also heavily focused on his cryptocurrency education platform Collective Shift which currently serves over 4,500 members. provides his unique perspectives by utilising his expertise in fundamental analysis, technical analysis and market sentiment. He is working towards his mission of making it easier for everyone to understand the financial world.