Euro in the Fall

Published on
October 4th, 2018
12 minutes

Euro in the Fall

Trade Ideas ·
Featuring Joseph Trevisani

Published on: October 4th, 2018 • Duration: 12 minutes

Joseph Trevisani, senior analyst at FXStreet, revisits his short euro thesis. He updates the trade and reviews the near-term catalysts in this interview with Justine Underhill. Filmed on October 2, 2018.


  • DR
    David R.
    22 October 2018 @ 21:53
    This pair has been in no mans land and I step aside flat. I'm agnostic. Need to see a sustained EURUSD breakout above 1.16 again to be bullish or another breakdown below 1.13 to be bearish. In other words, breakout trader strategy. Meanwhile there are better trades elsewhere.
  • DR
    David R.
    11 October 2018 @ 01:10
    EURUSD on the cusp of a major breakout. Level getting close. Dollar is looking weak. A euro breakout targets 1.182 soon and quite possibly 1.21 - 1.22 later. Some others like GBP looking stronger against the troubled greenback.
    • DR
      David R.
      11 October 2018 @ 16:58
      EURUSD breakout confirmed this am. Dollar also plunged below major support in Asia (ie., breakout of AUDUSD, one of the best FX proxies for Asia).
  • DL
    Dillon L.
    5 October 2018 @ 00:48
    Take profits at 1.11 or 1.12 like it hit in May? WTF? Last time EUR/USD hit that level was on its way to 1.2 back in 2017.......
    • DR
      David R.
      5 October 2018 @ 10:17
      indeed. He must have meant May 2017. Anyway, EURUSD might be on its way back to 1.20 again in the coming months, see comment below.
  • DR
    David R.
    5 October 2018 @ 00:32
    Thumbs-up for the video although I lean to the other side of this trade. But that's what makes a market.
  • DR
    David R.
    4 October 2018 @ 19:38
    Completely backwards IMHO. Interesting timing for this video because today I went **long** EURUSD from 1.1466 (the 618 fibonacci retracement pt) targeting 1.181 initially with possibly 1.20-1.21 before EURUSD reverses down. My stop loss is slightly below the 786 fib @ 1.1394, which would have been another long eur/usd entry pt had that printed (it hasn't, yet). A move over 1.159 will be very bullish near-term, when I'd move my SL up. The dollar remains bearish barring a close below the 1.1285 low in August (unlikely). As for the fundamentals stuff, which is really rather moot and NOT for real trading IMHO, the Italy deficit spending is actually BULLISH for euro, not bearish. Italy is copying the fiscal stimulus that the US passed late 2017, which has jacked-up the US since Q2 2018 (but will wear off next year). Other EU nations are sure to follow too with their own fiscal stimulus - France already (EU rules don't matter and aren't enforceable by Brussels, duh). In sum, the US has shot its fiscal ammo, had its day in the sun this year which will fade, and EU will follow with its fiscal shot up then down too. Finally, note that Italy's fiscal stimulus at 2.4% of GDP is only about HALF the rate of the huge heroin shot to the doped-up US economy. So the massive twin deficits of the US will matter eventually, and then crash goes the dollar (later, not this trade obviously). Good luck and remember there's no guarantees in life or trading so watch your technical levels.
    • DR
      David R.
      4 October 2018 @ 20:15
      ... and with today's price action, now I wanna see no Close lower than 1.1457 (today's low) for this trade, especially on NFP Friday which for a strong NFP could produce a temporary dollar reaction higher and an opportunity for a EURUSD long entry pt for those who've missed a prime entry pt. Remember, in trading, the initial kneejerk reaction to a News event is often in the wrong direction overall, especially when it reacts against the *Primary* trend, which in the case of the dollar is a Primary downtrend since after Dec 2016 when the DXY neared 104 before rolling over and collapsed down in a clear 5-wave impulse, then retraced just half of its year-long loss, before faltering again from around Aug 15 @97. Follow the price charts. Bearish dollar behavior (but with one more major dollar surge expected AFTER this EURUSD rally that began Aug 15 finally ends).
  • SR
    Steve R.
    4 October 2018 @ 09:11
    A lot of 'leg' on show tonight, just sayin! :-)
    • BP
      Brian P. | Real Vision
      4 October 2018 @ 14:48
      Not the place for that kind of comment. Be respectful. You’re out of line, Sir.
  • ZY
    Zheng Y.
    4 October 2018 @ 09:49
    this Euro show come out really timing good, hehe.