Comments
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EFInformative update and enjoyed it. London based and I think no deal Brexit looks likely and that would be catastrophic for the pound, so I’d avoid this trade.
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DRI note that Mr Boockvar's picks for 2018 around the start of this year all did well. Impressive!
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DY1) early 2018 Peter predicted Gold to be 1450-1550 by Dec 2018... 2) demand for silver the physical investment from retail investors is at lows! It’s not growing. It has fallen sharply! Peter look at latest Silver Institute report! Watch interview of CEO of First Majestic where he says retail sales of their silver are 95 percent down.
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AMGood summary. Re gold - Real rates have topped out across the curve, some of the majors (Barrick, Randgold) have been flying, and even the indices (GDX and GDXJ) look to have bottomed. Keep in mind that gold and miners are very out of favour, under-owned & real rates are now MUCH higher than in 2016 (the last major rally) and the set-up is nice. The only major headwind would be if rates take-off again or the $ rallies (the latter being possible). Surprised he didn't touch on USTs, however. If the Fed "pauses" (they have never paused and resumed hikes btw...) then it's time to load up on duration imo. most liquid market in the world that's denominated in $s. meanwhile hedging costs could come down, banks will rush for collateral, and even at ~3%, US government bonds offer some of the only developed govies with the yield to really rally down (ala 2012 and 2014)...
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MSThis guy needs to strengthen his shoe and jeans game....
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DRIndeed the weak dollar appears set up to tumble in 2019-20, likely even worse than its 20% collapse in 2017. The dollar's subsequent recovery has been overlapping, corrective and feeble, failing to get above 97 to the minimum 99-100 level to raise its long-term status from bearish to neutral. Thus USD remains in a structural, long-term bear market. The next wave, #3, is usually the biggest wave and this will be down. Also, as explained in Erik Townsend's (MacroVoices) outstanding new book, we're probably getting close to the issuance of a gold-backed Chinese/Russian offshore crypto-currency (as China in fact now owns more gold than the rest of the world - and per the golden rule whoever owns the gold makes the rules). That will take the world by storm and rapidly end the reserve status of the dollar and money parking in the T-bills issued by the insolvent US gov't/Treasury, causing big tumbles in US assets and the US standard of living. No opinion on GBP, but the smart money appears to have done well lately being long select EM bonds in local currencies unhedged - one of the better trades for the latter part of 2018. Expecting more from that if USD weakens. Good luck.
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LEWhat should we buy for Gold? IAU ETF? What about silver? Thanks!
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slshe said " the knock on effect "
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RMThe strong reasoning required to back up these many strong assertions was MIA.
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AKWhether or not Peter is correct, he always presents a clear and concise analysis.
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DSI have a half position in the GBP and hope that you are correct. The fact that central banks are out of ammunition is a good thing. Markets may focus on fundamentals instead of the central bankers. A lot of the financial leverage and engineering will be rationalized. You are probably correct that 2019 will be a problem. Keep your powder dry. DLS
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JTI don't agree on the UK thesis. Having followed the whole brexit farce closely, it doesn't appear to me that markets really comprehend the consequences of UK leaving on WTO-terms (the no-deal scenario). The outcome that seems more likely by the day. And, in a tightening world economy, the thesis for 2019 I believe in, nobody will be there rushing in to save them Tommys.
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CSFor those of us in the UK to me it would make sense to leave some of your savings unhedged, then be overweight gold in your portfolio purely as an alternative to fx. Certainly if his scenario plays out I'd be very happy.