Market Cycles: Timing Matters

Published on
October 8th, 2019
20 minutes

Market Cycles: Timing Matters

Trade Ideas ·
Featuring Michael Kantrowitz

Published on: October 8th, 2019 • Duration: 20 minutes

Michael Kantrowitz, CFA, chief investment strategist at Cornerstone Macro, makes his Real Vision debut to discuss the upcoming turn in the market cycle and reviews how investors should position their portfolios. Kantrowitz analyzes the potential for a cyclical rebound in Q1 2020, points out the relationship between the stock market and PMIs, and highlights the risks to playing offense before the cycle officially troughs, in this interview with Jake Merl. Filmed on October 7, 2019.



  • BS
    Boubacar S.
    20 October 2019 @ 14:47
    Hey Real Vision, When are we gonna get the fantastic charts shown in the interview, in the transcript? Thanks! It seems like the quality of your transcripts is going down, please keep up the good work! Cheers!
  • ET
    Eugenia T.
    16 October 2019 @ 11:12
    Educational and packed with info. Please invite the MK again.
  • CG
    CAGRI G.
    16 October 2019 @ 09:55
    excellent interview. it was very well laid out, backed with charts and data. i hope he will come back to provide a more in depth presentation. also, there used to be educational videos, his framework and checklist is great to navigate in different economic conditions. thanks for the presentation.
  • DT
    Diego T.
    16 October 2019 @ 04:10
    Great interview. The psychology in the markets with stocks trading so high is never forward looking. Pretty obvious.
  • RD
    Rahul D.
    14 October 2019 @ 23:54
    Excellent interview. Very objective. Very clear and concise.
  • OD
    Orin D.
    10 October 2019 @ 08:08
    fantastic interview
  • GF
    Guangle F.
    9 October 2019 @ 21:22
    Hasn't US PMI in Sep. bounced back already ? Michael mentioned about US ISM which is surely in downward.
    • GF
      Guangle F.
      9 October 2019 @ 21:28
      US IHS PMI has bounced, ISM PMI has not
  • NA
    N A.
    9 October 2019 @ 16:57
    Great info from Michael thank you, Rv must have him on again. Well thought through.
  • PG
    Philippe G.
    9 October 2019 @ 15:25
    Excellent guest! Please invite him back.
  • DD
    Derek D.
    9 October 2019 @ 15:07
    I didn't know the UVA Head Basketball Coach managed money too! (Spitting image of Tony Bennett.)
  • PT
    Pradeep T.
    9 October 2019 @ 13:31
    This is pretty good; it would be nice if we can get hold of the slides that Michael was presenting.
  • TS
    Tom S.
    9 October 2019 @ 08:34
    Brilliant analysis, clear well articulated process. Thoroughly enjoyed this
  • JB
    Jon B.
    9 October 2019 @ 08:19
    Best bull-ish riposte yet. Great analysis of the technicals. The first interview to challenge my bearish outlook.
  • HM
    Harold M.
    9 October 2019 @ 04:56
    Excellent discussion!! Please keep Michael as a regular. He is clear and concise.
  • MM
    Michael M.
    8 October 2019 @ 20:09
    Very hard to believe.
    • EF
      Eric F.
      9 October 2019 @ 03:29
      Agree Michael. Employment can only really go one way - down (beginning to see layoffs). Stocks very near ATH so very optimistic to see Q1 next year for rebound. We need to see a washout first. May not happen but stock buybacks & multiple expansion have been behind pretty much the last 50% increases across markets. No basis in reality, very prone and vulnerable and I don’t think it will take much for something to snowball out of control. Any sane person would see red flags everyone. This may be a nice presentation, but it seems to have little to no sense of danger.
  • GF
    Gordon F.
    9 October 2019 @ 00:54
    One of the things I really like about RV is that all sides of an issue are available. There are a lot of bears among the recent interviews, and I also tend toward that view, but I really like to listen to someone who clearly articulates an opposing view and cites his evidence. I try to position myself so I don't get hurt too bad either way if my views are wrong, and presentations like this one help me to stay humble. To quote Bill Bonner, "Sometimes right, sometimes wrong, but always in doubt."
  • RC
    Ronald C.
    8 October 2019 @ 21:43
    Is there a way to download the graphs used in the interviews?
    • DP
      Devraj P.
      9 October 2019 @ 00:42
      Did you try transcript?
  • DS
    David S.
    9 October 2019 @ 00:02
    Excellent presentation. I like Mr. Merl's short question technique. DLS
  • JL
    James L.
    8 October 2019 @ 23:48
    First class presentation! You are also on the same page as Hedgeye.
  • HC
    Hahns C.
    8 October 2019 @ 23:30
    The Next Mark Zandy!!
  • AA
    Anatoli A.
    8 October 2019 @ 21:59
    Mr Kantrowitz have to be on RV every week for the way he structure his thesis and the process he is using! Clearly one of the best interviews chart wise. Really hope to see him more often
  • BD
    Brian D.
    8 October 2019 @ 21:29
    well done and great interview - thank you!
  • GD
    Ghassen D.
    8 October 2019 @ 20:22
    Overvalued utilties and reits, treasuries, no thanks... I stick to my big moat, dividend yielding and still deeply undervalued (long term) cyclicals, If it drops, I load up the truck !
  • AA
    Aymman A.
    8 October 2019 @ 15:50
    Simply awesome. Excellent data and analysis.
  • NS
    Nishant S.
    8 October 2019 @ 15:50
    awesome original research data filled interview... one of the best that I have seen on RV. he should be a regular for sure
  • dh
    daniel h.
    8 October 2019 @ 14:32
    This was one of the best time I've spent on RV, and I try to watch daily. Please bring him back when he's able. Thanks for this
  • JK
    Jay K.
    8 October 2019 @ 12:43
    I'm not sure monetary policy is enough... slowdown may continue.
  • IS
    Ionel S.
    8 October 2019 @ 11:49
    Brilliant! Brig him back every month please!!!
  • RY
    Roy Y.
    8 October 2019 @ 11:29
    Very clear message with VVG charts!
  • GC
    George C.
    8 October 2019 @ 10:30
    Great interview! Highly informative.
  • DR
    David R.
    8 October 2019 @ 10:14
    Where's the transcript? TQ.
  • JH
    Jess H.
    8 October 2019 @ 09:47
    TRUMP acronym is funny, but serves well as an investing mnemonic at this point in the cycle.