Piping Hot Trade

Published on
October 17th, 2018
13 minutes

Piping Hot Trade

Trade Ideas ·
Featuring David Martin

Published on: October 17th, 2018 • Duration: 13 minutes

Will coffee continue its powerful move up from 10-year lows? David Martin, founder & CIO of Martin Fund Management, joins Real Vision for the first time to explain the recent price action. He reviews the key fundamental drivers, specific catalysts to watch and how to make the trade, in this interview with Brian Price. Filmed on October 15, 2018.


  • CL
    Claus L.
    3 April 2019 @ 07:38
    OK — so he was wrong (as for now). However, in no way should that be held against him, especially because — as has been pointed out in the previous comments — the featured interview was essentially an ex post facto event, and thus not of great interest for more serious listeners (as opposed to viewers desiring to be entertained). What would be fascinating would be a follow-up interview, preferably soon: Open interest has risen seemingly inexorably over the last many months, spot is near the often-quoted break-even level for producers ($122), the near-term futures is below support of $94-$96 established 14 years ago, chances are the Brazilian real will retest its higher lows in the next few weeks, the basis is at an long-term extreme as of 2d ago, May futures spread is strengthening rapidly, first notice day is coming up in 2½ weeks, managed money is well net short with no signs of funds losing their interest in continuing to short coffee, small speculators are at an extreme net long positioning, daily CMF(20) is declining with a massive rate-of-change, daily ADX(14) is through the roof and so on. NOW is the time for another interview, BEFORE coffee is off to the races again.
  • DD
    Derek D.
    22 October 2018 @ 04:10
    how might the increase in commodity price trickle Down to impact the likes of SBUX or DNKN? They can only raise the price per cup so much so fast.
  • BH
    Ben H.
    20 October 2018 @ 03:08
    I'm a retail investor. Is the BJO ENT the best way for me to play this?
    • BH
      Ben H.
      20 October 2018 @ 03:09
  • MS
    Mark S.
    19 October 2018 @ 01:04
    Where was this interview just a couple of weeks ago when KC was bouncing around decade lows of $1/lb???!!?
  • MC
    Matthew C.
    18 October 2018 @ 00:09
    Excellent, so tangible.
  • MH
    Matt H.
    17 October 2018 @ 18:00
    No trading vehicles? I don't trade coffee at all and a suggestion would be helpful.
    • DB
      Don B.
      17 October 2018 @ 22:21
      You might want to consider JO or BJO.
  • GV
    George V.
    17 October 2018 @ 21:34
    More David Martin please.....
  • JE
    James E.
    17 October 2018 @ 19:51
    Waiting for a Wave 2 pull back, I have been watching this market for quite a while. If China and India catch on to drinking coffee, prices could go anywhere. Most of the land suitable for coffee production is already planted.
  • AC
    Andrew C.
    17 October 2018 @ 10:36
    Thanks David and Brian; great discussion.... flash back to Shawn Hackett, president of Hackett Financial Advisors, discusses his bullish coffee trade. June 4, 2018, where a main driver is gunna be China Demand. His timeframe is still to play out, being 03-2019 (though he shoulda been stopped out?). Interesting and different POV. It certainly looks more attractive (to me) now, with a actual trend in place. I am looking at the BJO ETN as the way to implement the trade idea (as I am not particularly fond of futures). Any other suggestions on trading vehicles welcome.