Playing the Fed

Published on
July 31st, 2019
21 minutes

Playing the Fed

Trade Ideas ·
Featuring Mark W. Yusko and Rick Bensignor

Published on: July 31st, 2019 • Duration: 21 minutes

In a special episode of "Trade Ideas," Rick Bensignor sits down with Mark Yusko of Morgan Creek Capital Management to discuss how traders and investors should position for the upcoming FOMC decision. They debate the outlook for U.S. equities, and review why oil prices may remain lower for longer. Yusko also highlights a particular macro pairs trade he favors right now. Filmed on July 30, 2019.



  • JK
    Jay K.
    9 September 2019 @ 09:36
    I'm too fearful to hold any equities. The recession Raoul forecasts is going to be disastrous for all asset classes.
  • NS
    Nico S.
    6 September 2019 @ 21:22
    Sorry, but MY sounds like a pure snake salesman. Period. I think he has a good head on his shoulders but his mannerisms leave much to be desired when speaking to institutions. Trust me, I’m a full, head on crypto guy, but I think he’s a little too excitable about talking down his bad equity market call. Call a spade a spade and move on to selling your crypto goods.
  • Sv
    Sid v.
    2 August 2019 @ 20:20
    We need better analysis from MY why anyone other than a pure gambler should by Crypto. I would love to here his clear analysis and an alternative as well.
    • GW
      Geoff W.
      6 August 2019 @ 05:51
      How can he say that crypto has outperformed for years? It's been a widow making trade if you get the timing wrong and no one with any size in the trade could sleep soundly!
  • AP
    Antonio P.
    3 August 2019 @ 13:58
    MY is not willing to hear anybody but his own voice...
  • IF
    Ian F.
    31 July 2019 @ 12:20
    What an Anti American Russian spy. Seriously RV ...? Trump created the North Korea problem? KJU wasn’t lobbing missiles under the Obama admin? Obama didn’t tell Trump on leaving office NK was the biggest threat...? This guy is a joke. Why do we keep having him on. He doesn’t make people money.
    • CC
      Casey C.
      31 July 2019 @ 14:56
      Ian F, don't be so sensitive. Everyone has their opinions. Respect Mark's the same way you'd want yours respected by others. Disagreement is good. Forces us to see another perspective. Let's keep it civil.
    • PW
      Phil W.
      31 July 2019 @ 17:08
      Always two side to the story!
    • IF
      Ian F.
      31 July 2019 @ 19:58
      Casey C - "Opinion" is the best word you could have used when referring to Yusko. You nailed it. This dude has nothing but opinions. No analysis, no facts, no justification for anything. Only opinions. Example Yusko quote: "I'll argue over the next decade from here .. for 10 years, you're going to have a negative return on the S&P. " An argument usually comes with an analysis, but he didn't give any. Why do we let him off the hook? Where's the beef? Opinion sold as analysis is a disgrace to investment research and the reason why CNBC and the like have no credibility. Is he not prepared for these interviews? Why do we publish this dribble RV? The guy has never been shy to get in front of a microphone but that is no excuse to give him one if he has nothing to say. Is this political hatred for Trump? Does he hate America? Or does he just not understand macroeconomics? "Everybody thinks we're winning the trade war. We are being crushed in the trade war. China is so far ahead of us. They're three moves ahead." -- again no analysis or rational on how we are getting played, only opinion.
    • CC
      Casey C.
      1 August 2019 @ 16:21
      Ian F., just because Mark didn't offer the analysis behind his opinions, doesn't mean it's not there. This is more an interviewer problem than Mark's problem in my opinion. In Mark's defense, there's good evidence to support the quote you cited about negative returns over 10 years - take your pick of valuation metrics, margin adjusted CAPE, market cap to gdp or gva, etc. Historical correlations suggest based on current valuations, returns will in fact be close to negative or negative over 10-12 years. Again, just because Mark didn't volunteer it or it wasn't pulled out of him by the interviewer, doesn't make his opinion (based on it) any less valuable. And please don't make the leap that Mark or anyone else is "anti-American" just because he's critical of Trump and/or what's going on in our country. This isn't fair play nor good for healthy productive discourse.
    • CC
      Casey C.
      1 August 2019 @ 16:22
      P.S. I completely disagree with Mark on the Bitcoin stuff. Doesn't mean he's not right. Also doesn't mean I won't hear his take on other issues.
    • IF
      Ian F.
      3 August 2019 @ 03:03
      When you bring CAPE into an argument you’ve just lost. It has been signaling over valued and been wrong for 30 years. If you’d have sit out that stretch and you’re fired and broke. Bob Shiller is a washed up fraud. We took out all time highs from the prior peak in less than 10 years with a financial meltdown in the middle. So yes I’d take the other side of that bet.
  • CH
    Chris H.
    31 July 2019 @ 12:02
    Seems clueless about North Korea, geopolitics and wrong a lot about the market....
    • SB
      Scott B.
      2 August 2019 @ 18:36
      The value in listening to Mr. Yusko is to obtain the politicized consensus view that is uniformly Democratic, i.e. Bogus’s propaganda.
  • JB
    J B.
    1 August 2019 @ 01:35
    Yusko has always been a bit of a fraud.
    • NH
      Nigel H.
      2 August 2019 @ 00:47
      Most people misunderstand Mark Yusko because of his longer term time horizon.
    • FG
      Flavio G.
      2 August 2019 @ 12:04
      Nigel, in the long term we are all right ... and dead too.
  • MH
    Michael H.
    31 July 2019 @ 14:53
    China is a dictatorship. Also no rule of law in China. Personally had a passive investment in China stolen by the government. Who will "win the race" remains to be seen but I feel grateful to live in the USA.
    • DS
      David S.
      2 August 2019 @ 06:49
      I also am lucky to live in the USA also, but the rule of law is being questioned here as well as many other parts of the world. Like Thomas Becket you were denied the rule of law. It can happen in the US also. DLS
  • PW
    Phil W.
    31 July 2019 @ 17:00
    Love that "China playing GO and Trump playing Checkers"
    • DS
      David S.
      2 August 2019 @ 06:43
      Although President Trump has identified many of the real issues of real Americans, he has not negotiated any real deals. His major legislation tax package helped the rich far more than President Trump's base. If President Trump has all the cards he can win, but in international negotiations no one has all the cards. DLS
  • CB
    C B.
    1 August 2019 @ 17:27
    I find Mr. Yusko's delivery glib and hard to take seriously. He bounces so quickly from subject to subject that he comes across as having done very little deep thinking. Maybe his brain operates at light speed and the rest of us are just ordinary humans. He is sticking with his bold call for a 40% decline by the end of next year. Each of these interviews should carry a scorecard that tallies performance of past calls. So far he's very wrong.
  • TS
    Tim S.
    1 August 2019 @ 17:17
    Always a fun watch with MY. Love it.
  • SG
    Sven G.
    1 August 2019 @ 16:03
    both guys not the best :(
  • RR
    Rex R.
    31 July 2019 @ 23:42
    Mr, Besinger is not RealVision's best interviewer-- or interviewee. Better to let him pursue other past times. Mark Yusko on the other hand -- is awesome.
    • DS
      David S.
      1 August 2019 @ 07:26
      I much prefer Mr. Besinger's comments. I learn from him each time he is on whether as an interviewer or being interviewed. DLS
    • IF
      Ian F.
      1 August 2019 @ 15:43
      David S - I completely agree. Rick was the star of this interview.
  • TT
    Tim T.
    31 July 2019 @ 20:35
    Yusko has gone mad.
    • DS
      David S.
      1 August 2019 @ 07:29
      I do not think Mr. Yusko is mad or angry. He has a sales person's mentality and really, really wants to be right. DLS
  • RM
    Russell M.
    1 August 2019 @ 01:15
    I wanted to comment, the camera turned around so the guest has become the interviewer is a winner, but Rick did a decent interview, but he violated the code; he efforted too much telling how ‘awesome’ his previous calls were. His role here was to interview Mark. He injected his interest inappropriately. That said, I wouldn’t banish him; just give him a separate forum to be the guest star, and require him if interviews guests in the future, which I hope he does, to be only the question poser in that forum. With respect all around - a fine distinction to be not be trud under.
  • MF
    M F.
    31 July 2019 @ 17:44
    Always happy to hear Mark’s perspective and Rick’s. The only bone i have—and continue to have—is not put in the “Trade Ideas” section ideas are specific with entry, target, stop levels, catalyst, timing and risk to the trade. Editors, pls be disciplined to either have the interviewer ask these 6 questions or label the video as something else other than Trade Trade Ideas should be specific, timely, and actionable....otherwise, just a conversation or a view which is fine, but make it clear as such...time is our most valuable commodity, so lets all focus resources in the areas that matter and correspond to the respective titles. Thank You.
    • JJ
      John J.
      31 July 2019 @ 23:57
  • DL
    DAN L.
    31 July 2019 @ 23:46
    "There hasn't been a problem with North Korea for decades." Lol, tell that to the South Koreans.
  • TR
    Thomas R.
    31 July 2019 @ 23:12
    Predictions of where there market is going needs to have context - perhaps the primary context being - where is monetary policy going? With renewed downward trends in interest rates and added quantitative easing - as the buyer of last resort of sovereign debt - perhaps even going to MMT policies - markets seeming continue to climb in dollar/currency terms. If we have a bond market revolt and rates rise - it's clear from the Nov 2018 US 10 year topping at about 3.2% - the US is not set up to handle higher rates. Higher rates and the markets presumably crater.
  • BF
    Brad F.
    31 July 2019 @ 21:32
    Mark seems highly stressed. Rick is very patient and polite.
  • NR
    Nelson R.
    31 July 2019 @ 21:30
    Yusko feller made watching this painful, could not finish. He needs to calm down, find the center, read some Zen.
  • RD
    RP D.
    31 July 2019 @ 17:44
  • BH
    Bin H.
    31 July 2019 @ 17:38
    A little bit disappointed. Hope to hear trade ideas with solid reasoning
  • WB
    Wes B.
    31 July 2019 @ 17:30
    Does anyone take this guy seriously? Good speaker but so married to his narrative he reminds me of Peter Schiff
  • SG
    Steve G.
    31 July 2019 @ 13:28
    Dude is very arrogant
    • DP
      Devraj P.
      31 July 2019 @ 14:58
      Doesn’t come without a knowledge. May be some sharpe minds are like that which doesn’t make any change in knowledge that have to share !
    • OO
      Olga O.
      31 July 2019 @ 15:57
  • LN
    Linh N.
    31 July 2019 @ 15:06
    Great conversation
  • CA
    Craig A.
    31 July 2019 @ 12:45
    Ffs. This guy is clueless. Talks only his positions and doesnt provide any rationale behind his trade. Waste of 10 mins then shit it off.
    • CA
      Craig A.
      31 July 2019 @ 12:46
    • CC
      Casey C.
      31 July 2019 @ 14:54
      Craig A, chill.
  • AD
    Anna D.
    31 July 2019 @ 14:22
    Great interview.
  • KF
    Kenneth F.
    31 July 2019 @ 14:15
    Who is not bearish on oil? #BuyFear
  • CB
    Christopher B.
    31 July 2019 @ 13:01
    Liked his comment that XLE/SPY is on multi year low
  • DF
    Diamantino F.
    31 July 2019 @ 12:06
    Who is better ? Me or you ? ....