pretty much. it's been the best trade last few months imo. miners bottomed in November as real yields rolled over. However, real yields will collapse further if Fed panics on its balance sheet reduction (they are already signaling this). It looks like a bit of a repeat of 2016, but the set-up is better because real yields are actually at a higher base across the curve. Of course, the $ could pop higher in a panic (bad for all risk assets), so owning US duration as well as gold / miners is probably a pretty good play for H1.

there are also shades of H1 2017, where the debt ceiling saw the Treasury drain their balance, flooding the US (and the world) with billions in $ liquidity. barring a major crisis in China or Europe, that should happen again this year, supporting risk assets (and gold). unlike 2017, however, there is now "synchronised global growth", so real yields should fall or remain steady - along with the $. https://e-markets.nordea.com/api/research/item/47386.pdf?embedded=true Not to mention you have central banks desperate to talk the $ down. all up > $ headwinds in H1, falling real yields, Fed looking to halt its balance sheet run-down, miners very cheap and underowned etc. set-up is nice.

*no synchronised growth lol

I am still having fun with CRON and CGC. DLS

Love Europe, but it is in too much of a mess for me to predict. As far as the Fed goes, it needs to ditch its third mission of saving Wall Street. That game was important for one or two attempts. Without reasonable interest rates, which might not be that much higher for now, there is no price discovery. The Fed should run silent and run deep. DLS