Comments
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JCI'm as bearish as anyone on the Euro. Completely agree with the parity target being hit eventually. But 6 months is an insane time horizon IMO.
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GGHere is a trade idea— short usdjpy at market!!!
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REAnd.... the Powell speech turns her predictions on their head - just like that.
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NvWell done Amelia. (Unbreakable challenge)
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GGTime will tell but most of the guys on RV are just long the dxy from so long now and euro looks like its try to form a bottom.
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raGood stuff...please bring out Juliette declercq
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BPAs an fx specialist, she kind of missed what I think is one of the easiest trades and best risk/reward trades out there at the moment and that is short HKD! There is only one reason China opened a gold-yuan contract and has been accumulating gold for the last decade. And that is to float the currency and repeg the HKD to the renminbi.
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mbI have heard these trades described as “crowded”, especially the Euro short. But how important is that really? Is the FX market really like the stock market, which is exclusively for investment and speculation? Doesn’t essentially ALL global commerce, including basically every supply chain, go through the fx market? It seems to me that fx trading and speculation would be a very small percentage of total fx transactions, and thus lack the ability to crowd anything. The numbers on EM and other international debt denominated in USD, originated when the fed funds rate was near zero, and due/coming due is in the trillions, however. Wouldn’t this underpin the dollar regardless of speculative positions? I’m a novice so please correct me and shed some light on this.
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DFTrump says that FX is part of the so called 'Trade Deal' between the two countries, so I don't know how China waits until trade deal is done to devalue. If China do that then the 'trade deal' is broken and will begin again, no?
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DRThe other big risk not mentioned is that the US falls flat like has already begun, having already been priced for strong growth, rising rates and liquidity withdrawal, none of which should happen. In the contrary, second derivatives for the US economy are the worst in the world this year, the Fed will cut rates not increase, and turn from QT to QE. Sounds like a potential dollar collapse in the making - like the technical charts are saying which is most telling of all but unfortunately missing here. Long gold, precious metals, commodities. Short dollar. Dollar index remains long-term bearish unless 103.9 is broken. The next 1000 pips for USD are most likely down; ie, DXY will hit 86.75 (and lower) instead of 106.75
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SMGreat Interview. Enjoyed a lot.
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APShort EURRUB
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KLMaybe someone with FX expertise or Amelia can explain this to me. All of Amelia's trades are based off the USD, so wouldn't the simpler trade be long USD? or DXY?
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SSVery good. Thanks guys.