Staying Ahead of the (Yield) Curve

Published on
March 26th, 2019
20 minutes

Staying Ahead of the (Yield) Curve

Trade Ideas ·
Featuring Michael Purves

Published on: March 26th, 2019 • Duration: 20 minutes

The U.S. yield curve inverted last week, prompting debate about what the historic indicator of recession means this time around. Michael Purves, chief global strategist for Weeden & Co., explains how he is interpreting this event in combination with the latest words from the Fed. He drills down on what it signals for bonds, and lays out his target for the 10-year over the next few months, in this interview with Justine Underhill. Filmed on March 25, 2019.


  • TC
    Tom C.
    1 April 2019 @ 20:14
    Refreshing to see a bull case on RV! I’ve been concerned about the one sided narrative amongst macro commentators (both on RV and elsewhere) for a while. Instinct tells me to get on the other side of such popular bearishness. We haven’t seen the feverishness in markets that shout cycle top yet. taxi drivers i meet are still worried about politics, not asking me which stocks I’m in. There haven’t been any breath-taking t/o like aol/time Warner or RBS/ABN Amro from the last two cycle-tops. Although Tesla defying gravity might qualify
  • BD
    Bryan D.
    27 March 2019 @ 07:04
    Thanks for publishing quite soon after the interview
  • SW
    Scott W.
    26 March 2019 @ 13:42
    I like this analysis. There are a great many counterfactual circumstances that cannot be empirically assessed including what would have happened had the Fed not this/that/that other... And while the Fed are perhaps serially wrongheaded, they have not been the sole driver. Maybe they're analogous to a doctor blood letting a patient with a cold who will heal regardless. So it's perhaps premature to assume "the end" is just around the corner.
    • DP
      David P.
      26 March 2019 @ 20:17
      Good observations. The rhetoric of counterfactuals became a staple 10 years ago when this all started and have continued to this day...Brought back by the anniversary "celebrations" (ie 60 minutes) recently.
  • OO
    Olga O.
    26 March 2019 @ 16:45
    Liked the pitch, though not on the same page - good to hear opposing viewpoints.
  • gg
    georgy g.
    26 March 2019 @ 09:47
    Very good, fwd looking and not married to the bear case