Comments
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JOWe hear total disagreement on TLT. Raoul and others say long is the best and most obvious trade around, that interest rates have not finished their historical decline. Certainly the rise of TLT to $124 was steep and is now experiencing a retracement. But was it the end of a bear rally, or part 1 of a climb back to new highs?
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WM2 interviews from Mark in the last day or so .. In this one he's bearish bonds (basically short volatility), and in the other he's bullish volatility (basically long bonds) .. seems to me he's hedging his bets here .. heads he wins, tails we lose.
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DPhttps://www.wsj.com/articles/imf-lowers-2019-global-growth-forecast-11548075601 To the last point about global growth expectations are weakening
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JSSo how was Mr. Newton positioned on U. S. Treasuries in October 2018? Was he long yields like Gundlach looking for 3.60% ten year, or short? It would have been nice for Justine press him on the most recent action in this market before his forecast going forward.
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ZYthe real thing underpin this should be oil in spring, 2.9 maybe more realistics number given the smarter in nature of bonds. if 3.0, it defenitely is an extra.
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NGLove it when I see confirmation of my views from disagreement from retail.
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OMThanks for your insights Mark Were you able to correctly trade the yields to the downside ? And if yes, what was the reason you got long when wall st was betting on yields going up Thanks in advance!