Tesla: Taking A Turn For The Worse

Published on
April 15th, 2019
17 minutes

Tesla: Taking A Turn For The Worse

Trade Ideas ·
Featuring Jay Van Sciver

Published on: April 15th, 2019 • Duration: 17 minutes

Real Vision continues its discussion on Tesla by speaking with Jay Van Sciver, sector head of industrials & materials at Hedgeye. Sciver examines both the bullish & bearish theses for the company, highlights the unraveling of the demand story in 2019 and reviews just how low he sees share prices falling, in this interview with Jake Merl. Filmed on April 10, 2019.



  • AB
    Adnane B.
    15 April 2019 @ 21:21
    If I am correct the NEW short thesis in this video is the lack of demand!!!! Looking at Q4 2018 vs Q1 2019 is shortsighted to say the least. Tesla sales of Q1 2019 vs Q1 2018 has grown +110% !!! Tesla Model 3 is the best-selling EV in Norway, Switzerland and Germany and have just started deliveries of Model 3. This looks to me more of a success than a failure… The autonomy or Full Self Driving is just going to increase demand. It is simply something that no other car manufacturers can achieve right now. Tesla has Great EV and are Fun to drive at the same time, you can’t beat such an appealing proposition. Tesla price decrease is actually increasing the addressable market, I know this is a hard concept to grasp... Oh forgot to mention, Tesla is rapidly building a fully own Giga Factory in China, why would Tesla do such a thing with a lack of demand? Good luck to those who will follow this trade idea.
    • PS
      Paul S.
      16 April 2019 @ 04:27
      What other stocks do you like?
    • EN
      Eric N.
      15 August 2019 @ 19:35
      Paul S., I think I like your subtle way of insinuating an inability to see value. And to be honest, I'd like a peek on that short list as well.
  • RR
    Ryan R.
    19 April 2019 @ 01:54
    Comment on Jay: greatly appreciate the measured analysis lacking ad hominem. Did not say corporate fraud. Did not say dislike of musk. Neither are necessary for a stock price to be overvalued. Easy to understand your thesis.
  • RR
    Ryan R.
    19 April 2019 @ 01:51
    Did anyone else notice the comment at 2:20 expecting share price to get down to $0-$50 or $0-$20? Then the trade takeaway stated it as downside thus targeting $220 = $270 - $50. I heard it stated as stock price of $0-$50.
  • JA
    James A.
    18 April 2019 @ 14:38
    straight talker , probably the most succinct sell call I've heard
  • PD
    Paul D.
    16 April 2019 @ 23:12
  • JM
    John M.
    16 April 2019 @ 01:10
    Great perspective! Meaningful addition to the Tesla conversation. Appreciate the objective insights, particularly related to consumer demand.
  • NI
    Nate I.
    15 April 2019 @ 17:20
    Great interview. Question for Jay. The bond market seems to be less sanguine about Tesla financials. The 2025 bonds yield 8.25% as I write this. Do you think the bonds have priced in too much risk? Thanks.
    • PC
      Peter C.
      16 April 2019 @ 00:05
  • PG
    Philippe G.
    15 April 2019 @ 23:15
    Great points on the SEC and rating agencies. Please invite this gentleman back for other companies too!
  • AA
    Ali A.
    15 April 2019 @ 19:00
    All sounds good, but I am afraid, stock price has a lot more than the fundamentals of sales, revenue, balance sheet..etc . The current down trend has likely ended and Telsa stock about to start another rally that could likely take the price to a level above 400!
  • OC
    Otto C.
    15 April 2019 @ 18:47
    Great interview! I love TSLA's products but I hate its valuation. However, it's hard to kill a bull, specially with such strong cult-like following. I believe that the stock is building a 12-months base and will make another run towards $400 before its final peak.
    • OC
      Otto C.
      15 April 2019 @ 18:53
      Nevertheless, if it falls below $247 I'll short it.
  • JM
    Jason M.
    15 April 2019 @ 15:53
    Great measured analysis.
  • WS
    William S.
    15 April 2019 @ 14:02
    Eventually the numbers tell the truth and the euphoria wears off.
  • TB
    Terence B.
    15 April 2019 @ 13:12