The British Pound: Cycles, Technicals & Fundamentals

Published on
March 13th, 2019
13 minutes

A Synthetic Trade: U.S. Dollar, Treasuries and the S&P 500

The British Pound: Cycles, Technicals & Fundamentals

Trade Ideas ·
Featuring Ashraf Laidi

Published on: March 13th, 2019 • Duration: 13 minutes

Ashraf Laidi, founder & CEO of Intermarket Strategy, returns to Real Vision to analyze the historical cycles in the British pound and to discuss why this might be a good buying opportunity. He considers the fundamental backdrop & news regarding Brexit, runs through the short-term technical setup, and notes key levels to watch out for, in this interview with Justine Underhill. Filmed on March 12, 2019.


  • SP
    Sat P.
    19 March 2019 @ 22:39
    The unexpected thing I learnt from this was at the very end. When you’re negotiating something that is very important to the other side, make sure they’re tired and therefore under even higher pressure than normal.
  • gg
    georgy g.
    13 March 2019 @ 22:43
    I think chances of hard brexit are significantly underestimated
    • PC
      Paul C.
      14 March 2019 @ 11:04
      I've just read a tweet by a contrarian... 'I find it totally credible that Salvini will oblige the Brexiteers by vetoing an extension to Article 50.' Just reading this made me take profits this morning. All seems to be in place for a good trade (catalyst, COT reports showing oversold, technical break-out, aggressive price-action on potential 'good news') but still too many potential banana skins at this stage. For me, a good time to take a position may be pre-the EU's Article 50 vote.
  • PC
    Paul C.
    13 March 2019 @ 11:01
    Thanks to RV & Ashraf for such a timely video. I remember seeing an Ashraf piece regarding cyclical PA of Bitcoin back in Spring/Summer 2017 - being impressed with the analysis & kicking myself months later that i didn't get involved!
    • lD
      lance D.
      14 March 2019 @ 08:45
      Paul i have a few ends to tie up so i can not guarantee friday but yes if the timing is right i will do you an email with my phone number
  • MC
    Matthew C.
    13 March 2019 @ 23:28
    Every major bank is publishing variations of this trade, throw your darts at the wall.
  • se
    scott e.
    13 March 2019 @ 17:25
    Why should the EU agree to set a precedent for the UK that would potentially give other countries a route to leave the block? with elections in May the EU neither need this or have the will to deal with it right now. Cable may rally more over the next couple of days but nothing from the fundamentals suggest anything other than range bound thereafter 1.30
  • lD
    lance D.
    13 March 2019 @ 12:26
    Hahahaha "trade ideas... it gives you wings" (sorry I'm just an immature prat)
    • PC
      Paul C.
      13 March 2019 @ 13:21
      Lance D, my man! I'm off work for a couple of days - are you free for a meet-up? I'm swinging by your way on Friday - Maybe some scran in the Towers Inn? My shout.
  • PC
    Paul C.
    13 March 2019 @ 11:11
    I agree that the EU ultimately get deals done. I've got in at a nice level of 1.3 - so may use Ashraf's recommended level of 1.38 to take a bit off the table, depending upon the political scenario at the time. Although I'm ultimately betting-on GBP.USD being at a pre-brexit level of 1.45 with a 6-9 month time-horizon.