Comments
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GRGreat job on the presentation! However, a couple of factors I believe that are worthy in considering as headwinds or risks to a bullish copper case: - Forecast supply deficits neglect to consider global copper scrap used as primary alternatives. Higher price primary prices have always generated higher global and regional copper scrap reclamation. - China's environmental restrictions effecting the amount of imported copper scrap is creating regional over supplied positions in developed countries. This will be somewhat offset in the future as copper cathode consumers (manufacturers) add capacity to handle scrap copper versus solely relying upon primary.
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RMTony: "How are iron ore & copper rallying against the narrative of slowing global and particularly Chinese growth here?" Good question Tony, but you didn't stay with it. Instead we get a 10 minute spray on a panoply of minor idiosyncratic and irrelevant though exciting longer term factors (his stop will be hit the minute DX rallies and the global growth downturn resumes). IMO it is just a bear market rally. Copper is going nowhere until global growth bottoms and DX tops out - which IMO isn't yet. They are the major drivers at the centre of this debate and so many other assets, but usually missing from RVTV analyses.
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APThe LT bull case, guys, check this out ==> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-ZxolqmJmvU
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BENice presentation Tony! I do have to side with Robert, China has not bottomed, and I think DXY gets to at least 100ish, and maybe a whole lot more. Silver very weak here too. Good luck, I think you might be a couple years early.
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ACGreat ideas Tony, I already have some copper miners in my portfolio for EV demand. You talked about LME stockpile being low, I have heard on another podcast that there are other stockpiles around the world that are reasonably stocked. There will still be a shortage of supply this year from mines, but these stockpiles should make it a slower response. Do you have any comments on these other stockpiles levels? Shanghai, NYMEX, and ...
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APHey Tony, to add to your bullish case (very well articulated) - Indian demand set to surge: http://bit.ly/2Vwj6PB
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RSDXY has some work to do could easily see it pullback to 92.30 and observant eyes will have noted gold rallied this yr even with pretty strong dollar A CHANGE even if DXY goes new highs see it PB very sharply from there .Quite a bit bullish option activity on $FCX looking at 17 area June expiration ..That stock has been a nightmare since 2014 but on a purely technical basis can see at least 22.
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SSThat copper ETF is not very liquid. Only $70 mil in assets. Tiny. I much prefer your Southern Copper Stock Idea. Nice dividend and up almost 20% in the last 2 weeks.
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TRGreat interview. If electric vehicle demand projections are met, copper demand is set to heat up.
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BFOne of the best trade idea videos I have seen. Thanks Tony.
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JLVery comprehensive TG, or is it TS :-)
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RMLove to see this level of forensics done on $Gold and GDX
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JPfiller while we wait for something substantial
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KF$HBM
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PBThanks a lot Tony & Justine! I learned some new things and added this ETF to my portfolio for a potential buy in the future!