Tommy's has been spot on both on the long and short sides over the last 18 months. He might not be the greatest speaker / presenter but he is an excellent technical analyst.

I’ve been following Tommy’s newsletter for the last year or so and his calls are spot on. His methodology is deep and proven and I would encourage everyone to watch his long form video on RVTV.

Tommy has been on of my favourite finds on RV. His Hedgefund Telemetry Daily Note is a "must read" for me every day. His work is thorough and he has made some excellent calls. I encourage you to sign up to his website service - I think you will be very pleasantly surprised by the quality of work.

You might be right. LOL

100% agree. Data across the globe crashing hard w/o any evidence it is over, perhaps in early stages. Charts are great until you hit tops or bottoms and as the world rolls over, chart patterns may bury you if wrong.

Hmm, actually I'm the opposite. And I love hearing it when everyone else is altogether on one side of the boat which "used" to be. Well we'll see.

Agree with your big picture summary Arthur, while at the same time, I also think that Tommy will get this trade right. A short term EM bounce seems very much likely imo. It just seems too risky for me at this point and there's money to be made elsewhere.

Some of the smartest fund mgr's who were already very overweight Brazil earlier and outperformed the pack have rotated into Asia in Q4 and are again outperforming. Unhedged, as many Asian currencies have since risen against the weakening USD. Agreed that EEM is not the way to go, that's just lazy and lazy doesn't do as well.

I can definitely see EM as a go-to when the fed cuts rates and prints money to stimulate growth. In my opinion when this bear market in China bottoms it’ll be the buying opportunity of a lifetime. Don’t think we’re quite there yet. Way too many things to be unwound in the next recession.. ie: China’s reckless spending, corporate debt in the US that’s a notch above Junk, zombie companies (TSLA, etc). I don’t think we can just glide over these problems into another raging bull market until we have some reckoning. ‘16-‘17 should’ve been that recession but tax cuts fuelled the rally further.. I think we’re closer to reckoning than a blissful rally. The beautiful thing is the market will let us know and we gotta somehow make some money through all of this. Pretty amazing times!

During the US government shutdown the US Treasury is likely to run down its general account of USD 350bn. If it does, that will release some much needed dollar liquidity into the global monetary system.