Comments
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CPGreat to get a bullish view on a FAANG.
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MZLess than a week after the date on this interview and AAPL has already gapped down well below his stop loss trigger....The FAANGs led the rest of the market going up and they are leading the wider market now on the way down. Recession is possible (if not probable) in 2019 and even leaving aside all of Apple's growing problems, high end discretionary spending is going to get slammed. It's a no brainer. I love my MacBook Pro but I would never invest in the company at these prices, inflated by unrealistic expectations, ETFs and passive institutional investing, computer HFT, low interest rates, Fed largesse, and massive corporate buybacks - to name just a few of the (temporary) market distortions.
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PUcan someone explain Apple's service business? I own an iphone but I don't pay for any services to Apple. I own an iMac and I don't pay any service fees to Apple. Is it itunes? icloud? Not sure Apple will ever be a SaaS type company. I laughed a bit when he said it was a hardware driven service company? really????
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RMBrian doing a decent job interviewing generally, however your summary today shoeboxes the guest beyond his own statements. Be careful. Stop loss is your construct. He didn’t really express it numerically. Truth is this guest is a buy or don’t buy guy, not a trader with a stop loss guy.
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RCremember when there was a generation that cared about the make and brand of cars and said the next generation will value the same thing, only to be disrupted by Uber and Lyft where transport is now viewed as a generic commodity? mobile devices and hardware have not had any form of real innovation that differentiates the offering for almost 8 years now. it's now just a homogeneous product. see the similarities?
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JFLower lows and lower highs since Oct. Very unwise buy at these levels. Next support around 180.
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mlThe ASP grab by Apple reeks of short-term desperation. I have about another year on my iPhone, but won't pay these prices...I am jumping to Android.
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JWIt's good to see an analysis or trade idea that focuses more on the fundamental side. Please do more of this.
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CLMoving averages are garbage indicator.
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OOSorry, I completely disagree with this bullish pitch. I think the top is made. Yes, if one looks at the shorter term chart, the argument could be made that the bounce is due but if you step back and look at the bigger picture - there is tons of downside to be had. From the fundamental standpoint - Apple will not be able to push the pricing as easily as it used to. With rising interest rates and consumer being not particularly cheery in the coming year, it will be tough. I would recommend that Dan specifies which PE he is quoting.. the trailing is 16x, the forward is 14x... it was at 12x trailing P/E in 2015...for a value stock it matters. Also, again bigger picture - referencing 2015 might not be ideal if we are at the end of the bull market. The appetite for risk in general will be lower imho. We see companies posting great results and crashing spectacularly... there is little room for negative surprise. Buffett thinks as Dan though...
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SSI was at a party attended mostly by Millennials. I'm a Boomer and about 7-8 of them having a heated discussion on how bad Apple has become. iPhone software upgrades without choice, changing settings without permission, and how the user interface use to operate much better and much more simple. Many saying they were going to switch out of Apple. These kids were quite serious and upset about what Apple has become. I have an iPhone and I have to agree. That alone and I won't upgrade to a newer iPhone. Recently, I was in Cupertino, CA basically next door to Apple Headquarters and my iPhone got hacked! No joke. This was a first for me. My settings and use of the Apps is minimal at best. Fortunately my service provider 3rd level tech department and I were able to identify the hack and stop it. So many things about iPhone's and Apple have changed.
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PUthe worm turns in Apple, this perma bull ate the worm ;-)
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GRI'm waiting for the day when Tim Cook slows down my older model iPhone forcing me to upgrade to a newer model and thus end up coughing up more money to his company which he will ultimately use to fund his buyback scheme.
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MCVery brave buying it now given the bad news has just started (seeing more supplier downgrades) and even Dan accepts there won't be positive news flow for months. Safer short or on the sidelines ? I do worry a bit about whether past price history is all that useful here as Apple transitions from hardware to software (holy grail?).