The Perfect Storm

Published on
September 4th, 2019
9 minutes

The Perfect Storm

Trade Ideas ·
Featuring Shawn Hackett

Published on: September 4th, 2019 • Duration: 9 minutes

Shawn Hackett, president of Hackett Financial Advisors, breaks down how this year's harvest for corn and soybeans is at risk of major frost damage. In this interview with Jake Merl, Hackett walks through how weather patterns and solar cycles historically influence crop yields, discusses the severity of the current situation, and reviews how traders can take advantage of the rare setup with a particular grains ETN. Filmed on August 30, 2019.



  • MB
    Michael B.
    14 October 2019 @ 21:46
    So should we sell GRU or hold out for more evidence on grain figures. It’s gone up a modest amount since the trade idea. Some frost played out but don’t think to the extent this trade was hoping for.
  • AH
    Allister H.
    11 September 2019 @ 05:59
    Buy calls guys am I right? I lost him at lunar cycles.
  • JH
    Joel H.
    7 September 2019 @ 11:08
    this guy is excellent. tvm
  • JT
    Jay T.
    7 September 2019 @ 02:36
    I own a farm in the midwest and have been checking, in person, on the crops (albeit in a small area). Looks to me like the corn should be fine, but with lower yields (well pollinated, but ears approx. 30%+ shorter than normal in a good year. Beans on the other hand look to be in more trouble. Fewer pods (shorter plants) and beans are significantly less developed than they should be by now (~40-50% smaller) An early frost would do more damage to soybeans IMO (corn well filled, but smaller ears). GRU looks super tiny (if harvest is terrible though it should rocket), but I'm looking at CORN and SOYB. Less concerned about wheat as it's probably like corn and far enough along an early frost won't hurt as much as w/ beans.
  • CB
    Christopher B.
    6 September 2019 @ 18:23
    Probably shouldn’t trade the ETN GRU. This trade already has 100x the daily volume put this trade on in 9/4-9/6. Most of your returns could get swallowed up by everyone
  • BS
    Bradley S.
    6 September 2019 @ 03:01
    Extremely interesting presentation and thesis. Following up on commenter Devraj below-- good grief, GRU ("ELEMENTS Linked to the MLCX Grains Index Total Return") market cap is USD 3MM as of 9/5/19 .. three million dollars! Taking another view: on an adjusted basis, GRU is a $3 security trading less than 5000 shares per day (50-day median) -- arguably penny stock territory, and extremely speculative (i.e. very risky) on that basis alone. This should have been pointed out by either the host or the guest.
  • DR
    David R.
    4 September 2019 @ 21:49
    If you can predict the weather, you can predict price directions for grains and energy.
    • SC
      Shawn C.
      5 September 2019 @ 13:08
      Good thinking because theres a falling wedge in Natural Gas, just starting to break in the last few days.
    • DR
      David R.
      5 September 2019 @ 23:40
      Shawn there's also been a slightly rising wedge in EURUSD that peaked on monday and broke below on thursday. So is that NG rising or also USD falling? USD just very recently completed a rare, classical Jesse Livermore pivotal turning point, last such major instance being in 2011. AYK, a structurally weakening dollar would be a significant tailwind for NG, grains and all commodities. As the charts are shouting, I'm quite confident a massive dollar bear market looms ahead, even if it hasn't already started yet (Jesse Livermore: picking tops and bottoms is a fools game). There may or may not be one more down-up move in USD first. But the USD bottom should out starting in 4Q19 or 2020, perhaps when the market narrative shifts focus to the grotesque spiking US deficits and debt that the US cannot pay and the Fed will deeply monetize.
  • DP
    Devraj P.
    4 September 2019 @ 06:11
    GRU volume is extremely low for ex.2k and 65 day avg volume is 2k. Would you recommend any high vol Equity to add to large position?
    • SC
      Shawn C.
      5 September 2019 @ 13:14
      Sept 4 is GRU's biggest volume day since Aug 2015 and up 3%. I wonder if real vision listeners followed his advice?
  • KC
    Kirk C.
    4 September 2019 @ 10:52
    Finally - a fact based discussion of a few of the variables that tend to influence what morons (AOC) call the climate change disaster - thank you. It should be played in class rooms everywhere from grade schools to universities and in congress and the UN.
    • MS
      Mark S.
      4 September 2019 @ 11:37
      Yes! As long as there is a “solution” that allows me to do absolutely nothing then I can remain blissfully ignorant. Thank goodness there are people brave enough to ignore climate change and give me alternative facts.
    • CW
      CC W.
      4 September 2019 @ 21:16
      Climate is always changing. That is a fact and is good for humanity.
    • DR
      David R.
      4 September 2019 @ 22:07
      Manmade global warming is a Western Socialist myth cynically perpetrated as a means to hike taxes and redistribute wealth from producers to freeloaders and parasites like government & politicians. It's a proven fact that Earth today is actually significantly cooler now than it was earlier in its recent history, even though homo sapiens hadn't yet evolved. So did large herds of prehistoric cows and buffalo farting create more global warming then than humans today? No, either thought is preposterous. Rather, the climate change crowd and most of its paid-off pseudo "scientists" ignore the fact that the sun in a thermodynamic system that cycles and overwhelmingly dominates climate changes on the Earth and other planets. Fortunately, a number of honest scientists have come out and convincingly articulated the truth about this issue.
  • SV
    Steven V.
    4 September 2019 @ 17:04
    Very happy that RV had Shawn on to cover this topic in relation to the solar minimum. The 11-year solar and crop cycle is why I bought and have held on to ag commodities. Would love to have him back in a month or so to follow this story through the end of October.
  • PG
    Philippe G.
    4 September 2019 @ 15:20
    Interesting...appreciate the quick lesson on astronomy and climate!