The Worst Trade of 2018

Published on
December 27th, 2018
18 minutes

The Worst Trade of 2018

Trade Ideas ·
Featuring Tony Greer

Published on: December 27th, 2018 • Duration: 18 minutes

It's been the worst "Trade Idea" on Real Vision all year. Tony Greer of TG Macro got stopped-out of Canopy Growth in a volatile cannabis market in October. He now sits down with Brian Price to revisit the call. He highlights why the trade failed, discusses how to improve the strategy, and explains where $CGC may be headed in 2019. Filmed on December 11, 2018.


  • DS
    David S.
    2 January 2019 @ 20:24
    As an aside on the China trade war. China is showing more negative economic numbers. Many thought that the Chinese economic numbers were overstated before. Is it possible China is understanding now as part of the tariff negotiations? DLS
  • DS
    David S.
    2 January 2019 @ 20:19
    All hemp is not marijuana. Does anyone know if the farm bill legalizes commercial hemp which is used for rope, textiles, clothing, shoes, food, paper, bio-plastics, insulation, and bio-fuel? Big difference between hemp and marijuana. DLS
  • DR
    David R.
    31 December 2018 @ 22:57
    Respect and kudos.
  • SK
    Stuart K.
    30 December 2018 @ 19:52
    Nicely owning and defending the trade
  • MR
    Mathew R.
    28 December 2018 @ 19:35
    Kudos to Tony for owning the bad trades. We hear trade ideas all the time and not everyone follows up on their losers. Still love his insight regardless and I think he is right about marijuana in general. In frontier markets though, it's exactly why I don't use stops....I'm prepared to lose all my capital and I manage that risk though position sizing. Thanks for the follow up Tony!
  • DS
    David S.
    27 December 2018 @ 23:34
    Absolutely no Mea Culpa necessary. What are we children? I own a little of two cannabis stocks. I expect them to be very volatile and risk that they can go to zero, i.e. no stop-loss order. (I do not want to be stopped out before the thesis plays out.) I will hold my cannabis stocks as a total speculation. Anyone buying GE now may think that they are not speculating as much because GE has lots of assets. It is interesting to note that GE is losing more per share than Canopy Growth. Let’s own our trades - no excuses. On Trade Ideas I expect a rational for the trade and sincerity. DLS
    • CM
      Carlos M.
      28 December 2018 @ 12:32
      ok if that is the case, just say so, so you can adjust your exposure accordingly. why put a tight stop on something so volatile? if it looses almost 50% of the value in a week why wouldnt you think it can loose 10 or 15 % more ? the setup of the trade was incorrect .
  • DL
    Dan L.
    28 December 2018 @ 03:06
    Trophy segment at the end was hilarious.. TG is a boss! Great interview
  • JF
    Joseph F.
    28 December 2018 @ 02:27
    Very hard to predict when the market is up and down 1000 points a day. I've seen a lot worse trades than Tony's so far this year. I'm staying in cash until there is an obvious trend in place, for now it's just dangerous chop.
  • BC
    Burton C.
    28 December 2018 @ 01:56
    Hey I know how hard it is to trade and announce publicly what you are trading but my nomination for Tony's most absolute moronic trade has to be his call to Short Gold pretty much right at the bottom. At the time it had me thinking he needed an intervention.
  • JM
    John M.
    27 December 2018 @ 19:54
    I know that the Canadian governments (federal and provincial) are hoping to earn billion $s from the sale of this drug. Our Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, a former pot smoker, has promoted legalizing pot but will other governments really follow the Canadian example? He got a lot of young peoples' votes on that election promise I suppose! But are other governments so willing to ignore the advice of medical professionals such as the CMA (Canadian Medical Association): " Allowing any use of marijuana by youth under the age of 25, and particularly those under the age of 21, is a challenge for physicians since there are documented neurotoxic effects of cannabis use on the brain. This impact is more severe in adolescents and young adults than adults. Studies have shown that use of marijuana by adolescents produces bigger deficits and impairment in executive functioning, verbal IQ, learning, and memory than its use by adults." It is my sincere hope that these governments & producers will ultimately be held accountable for the health damage that they cause to some population segments. I will NOT invest!
    • JC
      Joe C.
      27 December 2018 @ 21:51
      You may benefit from carefully considering the difference between THC and CBD. I recommend the "Investible Medical Marijuana" video ft. Todd Harrsion and Mike Green from last year if you haven't already watched it. The disruptive potential for cannabinoid medical products to the pharmaceutical space is astounding and completely separate from products that get people "high". Ignore the profit potential in this space at your own risk.
    • DS
      David S.
      27 December 2018 @ 22:51
      My drug of choice is wine or beer. I agree that many will abuse cannabis just like alcohol. It is so easy to get any drug in the US, legal or illegal, that I do not feel that legalizing cannabis can or will be stopped. We need to study areas that have legalized cannabis and figure out how to control misbehavior just like alcohol. Prohibition did not work in the depression, so it will not work with cannabis now. Major funding for cannabis interdiction should be switch and increased to handle the hard drug problems, legal and illegal. It is not a perfect world, but we already knew that. DLS
  • MA
    Matthew A.
    27 December 2018 @ 22:42
    I've traded this stock along with other pot stocks....good on you came, you saw, you were incorrect.
  • TK
    Ted K.
    27 December 2018 @ 19:04
    I like Tony’s idea of putting cameras at his trading desk. Would be awesome to see how different traders execute.
    • MA
      Matthew A.
      27 December 2018 @ 22:41
      the camera would just catch me swearing and grown-man weeping...fin
  • SS
    S S.
    27 December 2018 @ 20:46
    This is a very very risky trade and you can end up getting stopped out at $20 and losing almost 40% on one trade. We are already hovering at the $27 level. You might have 2019's worst trade idea of the year if that happens. I do sincerely hope it does not as I really like Tony's other trade ideas.
  • JM
    Justin M.
    27 December 2018 @ 17:41
    Tony is a class act. He also holds the title for one of the absolute best RV trades with his social media short. Tony had a perfectly timed interview in which he outlined a trade shorting a bunch of the high flying social media names like $FB et al from the highs. many of these names are now 40-60% lower. Thats a stand up[ guy that takes ownership of his worst trades and likewise doesn't spend all his time trumpeting his winners. I'm a fan.
    • MS
      Matt S.
      27 December 2018 @ 20:20
  • MS
    Matt S.
    27 December 2018 @ 20:20
    I don't trust Google lol, speak for yourself! Google has algorithms to keep conservative views pushed pages deep whilst promoting liberal fake news to the top of searches! Hardly trustworthy.
  • DN
    Daniel N.
    27 December 2018 @ 19:39
    Love it! This came to my mind instantly: Our decisions are good or bad determent by how we made them, not what the consequences where. - Abraham Twerski
  • KL
    Kim L.
    27 December 2018 @ 16:55
    Thanks for sharing - this incredibly helpful. Would love to see more videos of traders reflecting on their worst trade ideas and how they would approach it differently the next time.
  • MN
    Maverick N.
    27 December 2018 @ 16:27
    Tony, it is perfectly fine as long as you had your own (or clients') money in the game. You had the courage to come to the front with your conviction and you have the humility to accept that the trade didn't work out - it doesn't imply you didn't put in the work to generate the thesis. Like Taleb said on live TV to an IYI (Intellectual Yet Idiot) sitting next to him "Don't give me your opinion! Tell me what is in your portfolio." Legacy media allows people to tout a certain stock on TV whereas they may be actively taking profits as the fools rush into the trade. RV is different. #SkinInTheGame is embedded.
  • MP
    Matthew P.
    27 December 2018 @ 16:09
    Thx for sharing