Comments
Transcript
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JLhe sounds brilliant and can regurgitate data. i am sure he is talented but i would like to see his P&L based on his past calls.
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HSWith the market all time high and slowly grinding up, sure it might pull back (who know when) but I'd sat it's NOT the time to get bearish. Good luck shorting this market.
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PPHe has been bearish for quite some time now hasn't he?
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mpPlease in all interviews, we need to know past performance. Believe that this individual has been bearish for some time. Our goal, as traders/investors is to make money. Simple. It is not to sound smart or produce great stats/charts. Is this individual making us positive returns. No. I actually think he has never managed money in his life. Hence why would you have him on. I have asked polite questions to him on TWTR. No response. Why. He has none. Craziest thing on this interview is that NYSE A/D is hitting all time highs. I truly recommend RV to screen your people much better. It is one thing to sound smart, it is another to make money. You have a great platform, doing not destroy it with a bias.
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SBLogically that makes sense. Be careful though, if the market starts to fall, Trump can reverse this in seconds with a tweet or two. Similarly the Federal Reserve 'Politburo' can easily make equity markets levitate with promises of even more QE. If they are stimulating asset markets this much currently, when we're already at all time highs, just imagine how they'll respond if markets fall even slightly!
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ITThe catalyst is "No trade deal" it should become crystal clear not later than February next year What's coming will be very similar to 08, Trump will be sacrificed, but the things are going to be so bad that the next clown in the office will not be able to raise taxes etc. It was Obama the socialist that saved the capitalism last time it broke down.
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JMAs always be careful. As good as RV is, it's bearish bent can be hazardous to your portfolio/career.
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SSISM at all time lows? Correct.
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BFLove listening to your insight Teddy. Will your new Institutional Research product you are launching be available to Retail Investors?
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DPGood interview. The charts and discussion worked well together.. As to what's the root cause of the PMI / equities disconnect? Easy. FRBNY trading desking buying S&P futures and creating gap ups for the cash open. That combined with no human traders, algos, and passive allocation about all it takes. Question is when / if the disconnect creates any degree of market price discovery. SOXX is the place I'm watching. The semis as a group are so totally disconnected from reality that I can close my eyes and think I'm back in San Francisco in Fall of 1999. It's that crazy...
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JKVery well thought out.
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TVery thoughtful analysis. Have him back in January.
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JHFound this not very useful and he seemed to be clutching at disparate straws in the PMI data. Also, not wise to just do historical comparisons right now and try to ascertain what is happening by looking in the rear-view mirror. We are in uncharted territory, so this analysis is not helpful and potentially misleading.
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BCTeddy, I appreciate your view, and respect your process in arriving at your outcomes. I largely agree with your thoughts on the shorter-term (next 6 months). However, in my view, with the data that we currently have, your leads (as well as others whom I have tremendous respect for), a material decline in equities is the only thing standing btwn US stagnation/slow rebound & recession. My question then is, were that to occur, would that not change you optimism on risk assets generally next year? Not implying you sound overly bullish, just that it would likely take the US and global economy a bit longer to recover.
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VPData stew. Liquidity provided in $100b daily repo and rising Fed balance sheet. Hard to think any large move lower to justify thesis. It is true the biggest wild cards remain headline "tweet" risk and interest rate expectations. Fu*k the data, this is the world as we know it.
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GHHedgeye called the outperformance of all these sectors some time ago. Going forward they are adding energy for 4Q
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GBNot convinced of his outlook but if his Wall St career doesn't work he can fall back on being a mnemonist.
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AAExcellent analysis. New thought that this video this gave me was perhaps the market is rational and is moving into equity market bond substitutes because global yields are so crappy. I had not thought of things that way. Thanks.
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NvWhen I entered the market it lead the economy by around 6 months. Now markets responds. It doesn't lead anymore Trade progress tweet no 78, then ES rallies
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EBValued-added analysis. Thanks, Teddy!
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ANFantastic Teddy!
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ddgreat