Comments
Transcript
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NRHave this man back! Lucid, reasonable and self-aware. The crushing truth of demography will out.
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SGRational reasons for the long rates potentially heading down, and nicely explained. But, how about the new supply for long-dated Treasuries that will increasingly keep coming this year and next to fund the ballooning fiscal deficit. Shouldn't the rate where that additional supply would clear (in a normal market) be much higher than current ~2%?
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CTmore immigration will further put a lid on wages
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JWWhy does Sri recommend 10yr only and not 20yr + ?
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NIKomal says bonds & gold. Gold is the far better choice. The Fed will never find inflation because the BLS will add one machination after another to vanquish it. The hedonic adjustments are my personal favorite. The reality is that the cost of living is rising somewhere between 5 and 10 percent per year. That makes bonds paying 2% (pre-tax) nominal a horrific investment. Gold should respond well to the exceedingly dismal real rates on bonds. Better to lose 0% on gold than to lose 3% or more on bonds.
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JWAlways insightful. What are people's preferred methods to buy Bonds? ETF, directly from US treasury, other?
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DFSometimes the simplest logic is the best. Komal Sri-Kumar is a very wise man. With the amount of debt out there the simple fact that yields rise may be enough to scare folks into cutting down on the spending which in turn is a self-fulfilling recession maker in consumer based economies.
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MGVery clear concise explanation of his process of thinking about the 10 yr yield, which I found to be an education moment for me. Cut through the noise and helped focus on the underlying factors driving the long end of the curve. Great interview, great questions too.
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SSReally good
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CMDon't know if it is confirmation bias, but always love hearing Komal's thoughts. In line with a number of other economists and money managers that I respect. The steepening of the curve is on target and is often missed by the general business press.
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CDExcellent as always, extremely clear and this was filmed on 10 Nov so it's not 3 weeks out of date when it airs! Much better!!
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dfVery insightfull.
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vKGreat !!!
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CBClear, honest commentary.