Will There be a Recession in 2020?

Published on
December 11th, 2019
Duration
18 minutes

Harvesting Profits: Trading the Five Tropical Softs


Will There be a Recession in 2020?

Trade Ideas ·
Featuring Komal Sri-Kumar

Published on: December 11th, 2019 • Duration: 18 minutes

Komal Sri-Kumar, the man who predicted the epic bond rally in 2019, returns to Real Vision to discuss where the 10-year Treasury is headed next. In this interview with Jake Merl, Sri breaks down the three forces driving yields lower, explains why the recent repo madness could be a canary in the coal mine, and notes what investors should expect from Jay Powell at the December Fed meeting. Filmed on December 10, 2019.

Comments

Transcript

  • NR
    Nathan R.
    16 January 2020 @ 14:24
    Have this man back! Lucid, reasonable and self-aware. The crushing truth of demography will out.
  • SG
    Shubham G.
    4 January 2020 @ 23:33
    Rational reasons for the long rates potentially heading down, and nicely explained. But, how about the new supply for long-dated Treasuries that will increasingly keep coming this year and next to fund the ballooning fiscal deficit. Shouldn't the rate where that additional supply would clear (in a normal market) be much higher than current ~2%?
  • CT
    Christopher T.
    23 December 2019 @ 03:35
    more immigration will further put a lid on wages
  • JW
    JW2 W.
    21 December 2019 @ 10:09
    Why does Sri recommend 10yr only and not 20yr + ?
  • NI
    Nate I.
    16 December 2019 @ 04:50
    Komal says bonds & gold. Gold is the far better choice. The Fed will never find inflation because the BLS will add one machination after another to vanquish it. The hedonic adjustments are my personal favorite. The reality is that the cost of living is rising somewhere between 5 and 10 percent per year. That makes bonds paying 2% (pre-tax) nominal a horrific investment. Gold should respond well to the exceedingly dismal real rates on bonds. Better to lose 0% on gold than to lose 3% or more on bonds.
  • JW
    JW2 W.
    12 December 2019 @ 20:29
    Always insightful. What are people's preferred methods to buy Bonds? ETF, directly from US treasury, other?
    • Av
      Arthur v.
      15 December 2019 @ 13:19
      TLT or VGLT for me.
  • DF
    Dominic F.
    15 December 2019 @ 10:19
    Sometimes the simplest logic is the best. Komal Sri-Kumar is a very wise man. With the amount of debt out there the simple fact that yields rise may be enough to scare folks into cutting down on the spending which in turn is a self-fulfilling recession maker in consumer based economies.
  • MG
    Mandeep G.
    13 December 2019 @ 03:45
    Very clear concise explanation of his process of thinking about the 10 yr yield, which I found to be an education moment for me. Cut through the noise and helped focus on the underlying factors driving the long end of the curve. Great interview, great questions too.
  • SS
    Sean S.
    12 December 2019 @ 03:27
    Really good
  • CM
    Chris M.
    12 December 2019 @ 01:37
    Don't know if it is confirmation bias, but always love hearing Komal's thoughts. In line with a number of other economists and money managers that I respect. The steepening of the curve is on target and is often missed by the general business press.
  • CD
    Chris D.
    12 December 2019 @ 00:30
    Excellent as always, extremely clear and this was filmed on 10 Nov so it's not 3 weeks out of date when it airs! Much better!!
    • TC
      Thomas C.
      12 December 2019 @ 00:37
      Filmed 10 Dec
  • df
    dwight f.
    11 December 2019 @ 22:17
    Very insightfull.
  • vk
    vineet k.
    11 December 2019 @ 20:54
    Great !!!
  • CB
    Chris B.
    11 December 2019 @ 16:35
    Clear, honest commentary.