Simon Hunt – China

Featuring Simon Hunt

Simon Hunt has an extraordinary depth of knowledge on China from decades living and working in the region. A Real Vision favorite, Simon returns to discuss the future of the Middle Kingdom on the global stage.

Published on
3 October, 2016
Topic
China, Emerging markets, Geopolitics
Duration
36 minutes
Asset class
Commodities, Bonds/Rates/Credit
Rating
59

Comments

  • PS

    Peter S.

    21 1 2018 12:05

    0       0

    Agree with Sam C, time to get an update from Simon Hunt.

  • SC

    Sam C.

    19 1 2018 07:53

    0       0

    Can we get Simon back ? He nailed the commodity rally and the weaker USD.

  • KC

    Klendathu C.

    30 1 2017 09:09

    1       0

    I've listened/watched this video half a dozen times now and it's simply phenomenal. I don't agree with it all but the insights coupled with his perspective are invaluable. Thanks RVTV

  • PS

    Parker S.

    6 11 2016 06:14

    1       0

    I had a hard time following his line of thought on a lot of points, found others very interesting and some outlandish, but regardless of what I think, it's just hard to argue with someone who has an accent like that. Kinda felt like I was watching James Bond and then found out all the movies were based on this guy's true stories.

  • GB

    Grant B.

    2 11 2016 12:06

    1       0

    Go back and listen to his again. Almost one month ago. His views are bang on! More please.

  • DS

    David S.

    21 10 2016 23:34

    1       0

    Grant, be careful what you wish for. Gold may always be a basis of value, but gold can never again be the center of international monetary policy. The value of each nations currency will be determined daily at the margin and expectation. This is really where we are today. There will be no "smoothing" by central banks or governments. The volatility and principal risk will dominate the currency markets, not gold by itself.

  • JM

    John M.

    20 10 2016 23:10

    0       0

    Thumbs up. Great work RV and Grant, and thank you to Simon Hunt. An informed alternative viewpoint that is highly relevant in the existing geopolitical climate.

  • GB

    Grant B.

    20 10 2016 10:08

    1       0

    Solid. I just listened to this again. Some real gems in there if you pay careful attention. He brings an insightful big picture perspective.

  • J

    John .

    14 10 2016 01:35

    1       5

    Didn't find the arguments well based in prove-able facts or statistics. Not Real Vision's Best, by any means....

  • S

    Shivam .

    12 10 2016 06:58

    0       0

    Its videos like these.. me personally, this video introduced me to various factors that i had not thought f / considered before.

    This video serves as a great starting point for many new lines of thought.. Very fresh.. its time well spent.

  • GE

    GABI E.

    10 10 2016 09:45

    0       0

    very very interesting and useful !!

  • de

    dale e.

    5 10 2016 20:20

    6       0

    WOW! Just normal for real vision. Thers no reason to go to school, just watch Real Vision.

  • VB

    Vincent B.

    5 10 2016 01:42

    3       0

    How happy was grant to hear gold central to new monetary system
    Simon seems more of exciting theorized than trader

  • CA

    Charles A.

    5 10 2016 00:08

    1       0

    Whose "grand plan" is he referencing vis-a-vis the financial system reset in \- 2020? CB's?

  • AC

    Andrew C.

    4 10 2016 14:16

    16       1

    "There are two types of forecasters; those who are wrong and those who know they're wrong." I just thought the precision of his forecasting was over the top.

  • lD

    lance D.

    4 10 2016 13:09

    3       0

    pretty cool interview...but i did think Mr Hunt was going to throw his toys out the pram on a couple of occasions lol

  • CM

    C M.

    4 10 2016 13:07

    10       3

    Interesting discussion, but I don't buy for a second that the U.S. will lead a push for a new gold standard. This is a delusional pipe dream of those in love with the gold standard. What is more, no government bureaucrat will willingly cede political power and "control" over monetary "policy" to a barbaric pet rock. Sakes alive! I can just hear the collective howl from the Harvard PhD economics department at this blasphemy!

  • JM

    John M.

    4 10 2016 05:11

    2       2

    I would have appreciated hearing his views on the copper market.

  • TS

    Thomas S.

    4 10 2016 03:45

    2       0

    Interesting comment that the Chinese and the Russians are supporting the Euro. It's been levitating for sure, but how long can that last. The rumors of CB and foreign government currency manipulation seems very dangerous and unsustable.

  • PW

    Phil W.

    3 10 2016 23:38

    12       1

    Thanks for getting Mr Hunt back, I enjoy his 30k view of the world. Lots to ponder!!

  • JF

    John F.

    3 10 2016 21:44

    2       1

    The Saudi business culture honors friendship over professional competence. The Iranians are noted for their good educations and professional competence. This is where the real risk is in the future outcome of anyone investing.

  • JF

    John F.

    3 10 2016 21:37

    2       0

    I worked in the Middle East for more than 4 years with most of it in Saudi Arabia.
    There was a two year hiatus in the middle therefore covering a 6-year perspective.
    Upon my first visit I attended a British Businessman's meeting where the Saudi guest announced their plans to have a regional currency for the entire peninsula (Aljazeera). Much like the Euro does. When I returned years later, they were surrounded by a ring of fire. No one wants the currency of a country under insurrection. Looks like they want to go it alone and detach from the fixed exchange rate with the US Dollar. When a child grows up you can't ask him to go back into the high-chair.

  • KD

    Kevin D.

    3 10 2016 21:37

    6       4

    His China views are self-contradictory: “The downdraft in China’s economy is due to Li Keqiang, Hu and the CYL resisting reform and muddying the waters”, and two minutes later “The economy is picking up”, and then “it was clear to us in 2007 that due to demographics, growth was going from 10% to 4%. That is still on target.” So which is it?

  • JF

    John F.

    3 10 2016 21:28

    5       1

    Not mentioned is that effective 1 Oct 2016 China's renminbi RMB was added as the 5th currency in the Special Drawing Right (SDR) Currency Basket. And represents 10% of all SDR's along with Pound Sterling, Japanese Yen, US Dollar , and the Euro. The ten percent was entirely taken from the Euro's position. The notice is found in the IMF publication: Review of the Special Drawing Right (SDR) Currency Basket, April 6, 2016

  • AH

    Andreas H.

    3 10 2016 21:16

    1       0

    China will muddle through and be fine at the end, think so too. Interesting the view on the dollar, I always ask myself, why the euro does not trade much lower, well maybe, because the dollar is much weaker then we think.

  • JF

    John F.

    3 10 2016 20:41

    1       0

    I like his comment about the turn up in commodities in October 2016. Since such a pivot point occurs historically 5 months before the bottom of an Equity decline, that would hint that the January, February, March 2017 decline in US Equities could be substantially steeper based upon a 15-month cycle within the %NYSE >200MA.

  • db

    don b.

    3 10 2016 19:53

    17       0

    Again I find myself shaking my head and feeling very grateful. Many interviews on RVTV I turn off after only a few minutes having heard it all over 27 years. But the 20% or so, and lately a much higher percentage than that, are invaluable. Certainly worth the price of admission. Thank you Grant and Mr. Simon Hunt for a world class visit.

  • PU

    Peter U.

    3 10 2016 18:33

    1       0

    You look a bit jet lagged in the interview Grant! Good interview nonetheless.

  • NR

    Nuno R.

    3 10 2016 18:05

    4       0

    Brilliant!

  • MK

    Mark K.

    3 10 2016 17:56

    17       0

    Definitely need to watch this more than once to absorb all that Simon has to say - which is considerable. I sense his views are not pulled out of thin air, but that he has an informed network that he downplays.

  • SD

    Shyam D.

    3 10 2016 17:53

    1       0

    Great from Simon. Think our Grant got a tad flustered and interrupted more than normal. Yes we have heard the China bear case ... and the gold case ... i wonder if Simon Hunt would return.

    On the Dollar weakening - think there will be a whole bunch of weird things. e.g. if Hunt's inflation theory plays out then they can raise rates. Raising rates won't necessarily mean dollar needs to rise. So some retracement is possible; but I can't see a new low for DXY as Simon says. I think the rug gets pulled a lot earlier. Late 2017/18. Doubt they can levitate until 2020.

  • NA

    Nickle A.

    3 10 2016 16:42

    9       0

    Absolutely Excellent. Worth watching a 2nd and 3rd time. Many crucial contrarian points worth noting. Excellent interviewing RVTV team.

  • SD

    Salvatore D.

    3 10 2016 15:57

    16       0

    Interesting approach from Mr. Hunt, the end of US hegemony the raise of the East. This could be a scene from a James Bond movie... So much mystery and suspense... Love RV for this variety of view...

  • CC

    Christopher C.

    3 10 2016 15:05

    7       0

    If you can keep your head when all about you. Are losing theirs and blaming it on you...

  • KC

    Klendathu C.

    3 10 2016 12:06

    36       0

    Mr. Hunt has a very interesting set of opinions based on his unique perspective. I still don't fully buy this idea of a "sustained" drop in the dollar. Can it go lower? Of course it can. Especially with a slowing US economy and if the Fed finally capitulates on rate hikes, I think that would probably mark the bottom in any dollar weakness. The dollar after all is rangebound for a reason. It can't fall too far or Europe and Japan's banking systems collapse under the weight of their rising currencies. It seems Mr. Hunt does not share this view. It could be that he thinks the weaker dollar will shoot EM into the stratosphere which will pull Japan and Europe with it. I have my serious doubts. With that said, I think you'd be an idiot to not put some money in parts of Asia just because its the few reasonably liquid investments that are actually growing organically. As always, this was a fantastic interview. Grant has a knack of always asking the questions that I want answered. Keep up the good work.

  • AF

    Andrew F.

    3 10 2016 11:42

    4       0

    Great view and as things stand are very dynamically changing everyday.