Early or Wrong on Gold?

Published on
April 11th, 2019
Duration
8 minutes

Early or Wrong on Gold?

Gold ·
Featuring Brent Johnson

Published on: April 11th, 2019 • Duration: 8 minutes

Brent Johnson, CEO of Santiago Capital, joins Real Vision to discuss his expectations for the price of gold and the dollar. He details the subtle balancing act investors must employ to get the timing right on gold. This clip is excerpted from a piece published on Real Vision on June 6, 2018.

Comments

Transcript

  • PS
    Poyan S.
    16 April 2019 @ 06:30
    im 100% sure that we will have a world currency. im actually 1000% sure. but untill then lets just watch the world meltdown
  • DS
    David S.
    13 April 2019 @ 21:01
    Always enjoy listening to Brent. The only disturbing note is the possibility that someone will try to set up any fixed exchange rate for gold again. It will always be blown out of the water buy normal good FX traders. The final step in the gold saga is recognizing that gold is just another FX currency. Its value comes from limited supply and can be differentiated from government fiat currencies as it always has been. Its market value is known each day. I have and will continue to have gold merely as a normal non-interest-bearing asset. I can trade around this position, Since 2005 gold and the S&P have diverged a great deal but are closing in on each other now - gold up 169% and the S&P up 145%. If you look at 2010 to now gold is up 36% and the S&P is up 235%. In the long run I am betting that gold will markedly outperform the S&P and most fiat currencies. Gold is and should be looked at from a portfolio perspective as a non-fiat FX currency and traded as such. Jewelry is a different cup of tea. DLS
  • JM
    John M.
    13 April 2019 @ 05:19
    Really enjoy Brent Johnson and his series on the Dollar Milkshake Theory. Great video! That said, is there a way the Real Vision team can mark these as "remix" videos and previously filmed content? The user experience is not as good as it used to be for long term subscribers. It is hard to know if this is new content and an update to a prior trade idea or just something from the archives repackaged and put back at the top of the feed. This video was nothing new for the avid Real Vision viewer and it would be nice to know it's a repost or an except from an archived video before watching. Thanks!
  • CL
    Chris L.
    13 April 2019 @ 03:28
    I've had this convo with Brent, Luke and the fintwit gold illuminati... The primary driver (please pay attention to this) to gold's price are real yields. To think otherwise is ignorance. The reason "gold failed" is because real yields in the US stopped collapsing. When? 2012. It's been up hill ever since. Why'd gold collapse in 2008 when VIX went through the roof? Real yields. From 2007 to 2009 real yields went from 62 bps to 400 bps. Why'd gold collapse 12% last year? Manipulation - no! Real yields.l going from about 40 bps to 117 bps. Got it? Good.
  • DR
    David R.
    12 April 2019 @ 15:59
    Bear in mind that this clip was a year ago. So Brent was correct in the short-run that the dollar would recover. That recovery was fairly clear; the unknown was how high it would run. Turns out that USD was NOT strong; the recovery was feeble and muted, having failed to retrace to the minimum fibonacci 61.8% point, which means the USD rally was merely a bear market rally. It's likely over now, and the next big move for the dollar will be a huge down move, not higher. The fact that USD failed to retrace little more than half its prior loss, and that the USD recovery was choppy on the price chart (overlapping prices instead of a straight move up) is classic of a bear market rally. For half a year, USD has collapsed up to 20% against numerous EM FX, and USD has made a series of lower highs against DM this year. We can also see that the dollar recover of 2018 was merely in 3 choppy waves higher, up -down-up. Whereas the 20% dollar plunge from Dec 2016 thru Jan 2018 was down in a 5-wave impulse. Historically, every 5-wave impulse plunge followed by a 3-wave partial recovery has always been followed by another 5-wave plunge down to new lows. That's where the dollar is going next - down to new lows in 5 waves. But (only) a sustained move above 103.9 would invalidate that outlook to new dollar lows. USD weakness is both spreading and chronic. A possible dollar crash lurks. Whatever, the DXY is almost certain to fall into the 80's rather than recover to 103.9 where it was just 28 months ago. Even the beleaguered Euro should head up to 118 then 121. Then we'll recheck to see whether 125 and 128 are in the works for EURUSD. Other European FX will do even better, and the strong EM FX trend that has been in motion already for many months will continue to do best of all. USD may only hold up against the usual basket case currencies and perhaps JPY. Even MXN is looking like it should surge against the weak dollar. Fundamentally, you have a seriously slowly US economy that is underperforming much of the world this year, especially underperforming EM, and a probable US earnings recession, if not a US economic recession. Even the Brexit-EU truce (resolution?) gives significant temporary support to Europe, focusing attention back on troubled America. Stay SHORT USD .... against EM (except the usual suspects), GBP, EUR, MXN, XAU, XAG, BTC etc. JPY might be one FX that'll be even weaker than USD.
  • AK
    Anthony K.
    12 April 2019 @ 15:06
    "I drink your milkshake!" Always a great listen, Brent. :)
  • WB
    William B.
    12 April 2019 @ 01:54
    I’d forgotten about this interview.. learned/relearned lots.
  • BG
    Bruno G.
    11 April 2019 @ 23:18
    All this milk shake talk made me thirsty for gold. Off topic but could you have a gold stock picker(s) give their thoughts and ideas. Thanks
    • AK
      Anthony K.
      12 April 2019 @ 15:51
      The top tier miners are ones that you can hold confidently but they are not going to give you the big pop when she run starts. Every miner here listed has the bulk of their assets in mostly politically friendly areas which I think is key to tamping volatility down. Top Tier Agnico-Eagle Mines AEM Newmont NEM These three are my favorite holdings which I purchased thru LEAPS in late 2015 Best Risk/Reward Pan American Silver PAAS Kirkland Lake KL Pretium Resources PVG Beta Plays if she starts to run, Their balance sheets are messy especially AG but if this place starts to move they it will do quite well... but if this thing goes the wrong way, it wont be pretty. SO be warned of the dangers because they could be gone First Majestic Silver AG Wesdome WDOFF Hecla Mining HL I also like NGD but she has clearly been that mistress that has slept with another man and still have gone back to. Mainly because I love the Rainy River project, and think they finally have the issues worked out. IF it works out to what I think this will be a very big winner but it wont go up with out help form the underlying commodity. Very speculative. I only purchase options on the middle and bottom tier and I go out very far and I look to the friendly times of the years June & Dec View me as just a poster here. Do your own due diligence but I think you will find some of these names interesting if you dont already know them. Best of luck Cheers.
    • DR
      David R.
      12 April 2019 @ 16:12
      And how about streamers. Royal gold and silver wheaton. Bitcoin is looking stronger than gold or miners, and could complete a double soon. Whether it's off to the races after that, too soon to tell. Hard to believe BTC could recover so quickly after its crash, but the world is hungry for non fiat. And the problem with gold is it isn't portable anymore as heaps of countries are making it illegal to move gold cross-border. Labelling it money laundering and illegal, subject to confiscation and possible imprisonment. Anything I guess to try forcing you to stick with the government paper instead.
    • AK
      Anthony K.
      12 April 2019 @ 19:25
      David R. Yes Streamers / Royalty Trusts too. I didn't address them because they are a different animal from Miners