Grant Williams in Conversation with David Hay

Published on
16 November, 2018
Topic
Recession, Career, Financial System
Duration
92 minutes
Asset class
Equities

Grant Williams in Conversation with David Hay

Featuring David Hay

Grant travels west to talk with Evergreen GaveKal CIO David Hay about the changing dynamics surrounding perhaps the most important aspect of finance – the relationship between manager and investor. David explains how that relationship has shifted over his 40 year career, the challenges those shifts have caused and what each side must try to do in order to preserve this all-important relationship. Filmed October 19, 2018 in Bellevue, Washington.

Published on
16 November, 2018
Topic
Recession, Career, Financial System
Duration
92 minutes
Asset class
Equities
Rating
36
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Comments

  • TB

    Theron B.

    7 12 2018 00:02

    0       0

    Can’t thank you enough for this type of work!

  • BC

    Burton C.

    27 11 2018 05:29

    2       0

    One of the key insights in this came towards the end when David explained the next bear market will shift into high gear once the scam of stock buybacks is understood by the retail public. We see the initial leading edge of this now with the revelation of what GE and Sears have done. When rates go higher making it less affordable to carry the debt used to repurchase and those repurchased shares go underwater, shareholders should resell against this practice. This will be bear market fuel.

  • DC

    Darren C.

    22 11 2018 04:38

    3       0

    The whole discussion was top notch. Great stuff about psychology.
    I'm willing to bet the only thing I remember in ten years is; small correction small buy, big correction big buy.

  • SU

    Shakeel U.

    21 11 2018 23:26

    0       0

    Everyone should watch this, brilliant!

  • PB

    Pieter B.

    20 11 2018 06:13

    2       0

    Great conversation! Thanks a lot!

  • MI

    Madhu I.

    20 11 2018 01:29

    4       1

    One of the best conversations from a portfolio manager. I have a very good idea how he is thinkng

  • VS

    Victor S.

    19 11 2018 22:03

    0       0

    Longest recovery will be on July 2019 -very good interview and insights .

  • HJ

    Harry J.

    19 11 2018 20:58

    1       0

    I’d love to hear David’s view on Muni ETFs

  • HJ

    Harry J.

    19 11 2018 20:55

    1       0

    Just great from questions to answers!
    I wish David managed part of my funds.
    Thanks RVTV

  • CM

    C M.

    19 11 2018 01:40

    3       0

    Excellent interview. As David talks about investor panic, that is what is really going to create a sharp drop in the market when it breaks. Had someone tell me the other day that during the downturn in October, he was going to sell out all his stocks. But his grandchild distracted him and he didn't sell. Now he is happy because he made back all his losses "and more". This is the phychology of the retailer babyboom investor who is going to get killed in the next bear market.

  • VP

    Vincent P.

    18 11 2018 23:01

    2       0

    This was just an amazing discussion!! David brilliantly covers current conditions and the frustrations of a fundamentally experienced Manager. Although it doesn't seem like the FED is going to wait too much longer to slow down its rate hike cycle, deeper plunge or not. Afterall, who wants to destroy all this complacency. Seriously, would like to see David return to assess the damage once it really hits.

  • as

    andrew s.

    18 11 2018 20:13

    5       0

    Another gem from RV. Thank you Grant and David, this interview really helped me gain some calm and clarity in these often challenging and troubled times. Wonderful production too so well done all the team.

  • NI

    Nate I.

    18 11 2018 18:00

    0       1

    In lieu of having his clients pay taxes, I'm curious why David doesn't use a long-short strategy to take some of the pain out of a decline?

  • EL

    Edward L.

    18 11 2018 16:37

    1       0

    More info on when and how to sell would be appreciated especially in light of your identifying it as area of need of expertise

  • EM

    Ewan M.

    18 11 2018 11:55

    1       0

    Sound money would go some way to fixing these imbalances.

  • MP

    Matthew P.

    18 11 2018 08:51

    2       9

    PLEASE more: investment framework, market analysis, entry timing, position sizing, experience anecdotes, thesis explanations, how to position while expecting recession

    Less: less “retail investors and our clients are so stupid and badly allocated”, less personal biography, less “look how dumb people always are every bull market”

    Thank you for the long form content. Anyone that watches longform in depth content expects a crash and please stop wasting 1hr15min of the interview talking about how stupidly positioned everyone else is, and the typical psychology of a bull market. Please focus the interview on more productive things so we can learn more from these experts you interview.

  • my

    markettaker y.

    18 11 2018 03:10

    2       1

    Well, the interview itself needs no further comment, but I think the cameramen (or women) need major kudos for those boat shots! There were obviously two of them laying up on the deck there and it's brilliant. Milton, give them a cookie for that great work.

  • TH

    Truman H.

    18 11 2018 01:34

    6       0

    "The more you know in a market like this, the worse you are." Bingo.

  • NE

    Neil E.

    18 11 2018 00:30

    4       0

    These “in conversation with” pieces are next level. Pretty sure I’ve never been grateful for a paid subscription before.

  • AC

    Alessio C.

    17 11 2018 23:52

    1       0

    I didn't know Bellevue, WA. That's a really nice spot to live. Love the boat in front of Seaview-house.

  • DS

    David S.

    17 11 2018 23:01

    2       0

    Another excellent interview! A word to the wise is sufficient. A market collapse will help the rest to see the folly of their ways - alas too late. For most investors the best piece of advice offered here is to test your portfolio for a 20% and a 40% market decline. If that will not wake you up, then an actual loss of 40% will be their nightmare. Everyone likes to say that they are happy with market returns. If the market is down 40%, how happy will they be? DLS

  • BD

    Bruce D.

    17 11 2018 19:53

    3       0

    As a fellow RIA/Financial Advisor for almost 30 years, I couldn’t agree more with this entire thoughtful discussion. Many Clients today are SO focused on returns and fees, and why they are not matching the S&P 500 returns, with ZERO concern about valuations and where we are in this massive Global credit cycle/Ponzi scheme. Managing fear and greed are extremely difficult in a normal cycle, while this is the most manipulated cycle I’ve ever lived through too. Clients that are passively 100% invested have NO CLUE how much risk they are taking! Thank you to David for confirming my beliefs, and for Grant for actually trying to educate the non professionals in the RV family......lastly, buy some gold for insurance and protection from the next bear market and recession, which is probably right around the corner. The Fed’s will have to print more currency then we ever thought possible, and all fiat currencies will have to devalue against real assets....which are historically, ridiculously cheap.

  • SV

    Steven V.

    17 11 2018 18:36

    3       1

    For anyone managing money, especially small independents like myself, this video is very valuable.

  • je

    james e.

    17 11 2018 18:29

    7       0

    There should be a separate category of RV interviews, perhaps the "Yoda" series. Deden, Hay, Sokoloff and a few others would certainly qualify. This was outstanding. David is such a sage and thoughtful person who truly cares about his clients and friends and how they will be impacted by a changing economic environment. David's caution reminds me of Richard Russell's longstanding question, "what are the consequences if I'm wrong". I'd change that a little, "what are the consequences if you don't heed David's advice"? Superb interview.

  • ns

    niall s.

    17 11 2018 17:17

    2       0

    Perhaps the fact that retail investors are using their own money and the professionals mostly other peoples money , means that in times of crisis the professionals do better. Its an important point that is often overlooked.

    Most retail investors went through the GFC so hopefully they might surprise some people in the coming crisis, especially if they watch RVTV.

  • TE

    Tito E.

    17 11 2018 16:51

    3       0

    David Hay seems a true gent

  • SH

    Steve H.

    17 11 2018 14:41

    13       0

    Well done to Mr. Hay for battling through. I'd have gone to bed with a bottle of brandy. I hope he survived!

    An excellent interview and, as noted in other comments, great production values. However widely RV manages over time to extend its brand, these in-depth interviews will IMHO always lie at the heart of the franchise.

  • DY

    Donny Y.

    17 11 2018 14:34

    2       0

    Definitely adding this to My List! Fantastic interview with so much financial wisdom. Thank you. =)

  • MK

    Michael K.

    17 11 2018 03:14

    2       0

    Tops. As I’m watching I’m also noticing the really high production value. The gentle movement of waves, just barely underneath the conversation. The great panning and drone shots. And obviously the conversation. As I manage my own investments with ETF’s despite a fortunately growing balance, I wonder the role of the business for serving the individual. Time well spent for all and I look forward to following gavekal going forward.

  • CC

    Chad C.

    16 11 2018 23:34

    0       0

    Grant was getting a little cold on the boat

  • BM

    Bryan M.

    16 11 2018 22:13

    1       0

    Great conversation. Thank you all.

  • MC

    Minum C.

    16 11 2018 20:06

    1       0

    Awesome!

  • BR

    Bruce R.

    16 11 2018 19:29

    2       0

    Fantastic. Thanks for this. Made my conviction about the need to rationally manage risk and maintain patience that much stronger. I will no doubt watch it again.

  • rr

    rlw r.

    16 11 2018 19:04

    3       0

    David & Grant thank you
    Top notch conversation

  • MB

    Matt B.

    16 11 2018 15:48

    3       0

    Discussions like this teach you how to do your own thinking and be a better investor. Top stuff.

  • SS

    Sam S.

    16 11 2018 14:46

    5       0

    Grant & David looking sharp. First Class discussion! Realistic thoughts on important financial outcomes and cycles. All the best!

  • GR

    George R.

    16 11 2018 14:36

    28       0

    This format is RV's USP. The fireside (or lakeside) informal chat is great and these videos I enjoy the most.

  • CC

    Christopher C.

    16 11 2018 14:12

    5       0

    if you can keep your head when all about are losing theirs? Men, it has been well said, think in herds; it will be seen that they go mad in herds, while they only recover their senses slowly, and one by one.?

  • JZ

    Josh Z.

    16 11 2018 12:48

    8       0

    Kudos for doing this despite the hoarseness!