Grant Williams in Conversation with Felix Zulauf

Published on
March 30th, 2018
Topic
History, Career
Duration
92 minutes
Asset class
Equities

Grant Williams in Conversation with Felix Zulauf

Grant Williams ·
Featuring Felix Zulauf

Published on: March 30th, 2018 • Duration: 92 minutes • Asset Class: Equities • Topic: History, Career

Felix Zulauf is an investing legend who has been a member of the Barron’s Roundtable for over 30 years. Famous for his big calls ahead of the 1987 crash, the bursting of the bubbles in Japan and US tech, and the subprime crisis, he has built a stellar track record over a 40-year career. For the fourth in his “In Conversation with…” series, Grant Williams travels to Felix’s home in Naples, Florida to talk about that storied career and the important lessons that Felix has learned along the way. Filmed from March 10 to March 12, 2018.

Comments

  • MN
    Maverick N.
    23 March 2019 @ 01:42
    Revisiting this interview............just superb! Honest, humbling, and fascinating all at the same time. Did you guys notice that Grant doesn't have his notes in front of him, yet the quality of questions and the flow of conversation moves in an almost perfect logical progression - reminds me of Charlie Munger's maxim - "More important than the desire to succeed is the will to prepare." Wish I can meet Grant in person and shake his hand...
  • SH
    Stephen H.
    14 February 2019 @ 03:50
    Excellent interview, deep content and a great opportunity to hear from a seasoned market professional. Balanced and lacking ego Felix delivers a great world view. Thank you Grant, this was great. Time for a re-fresher with Felix?
  • FG
    Flavio G.
    22 January 2019 @ 16:47
    Great interview! and would like to know who showed up @51:52 (39:54)
  • MA
    Matthew A.
    28 December 2018 @ 02:53
    Go Felix, very comforting to hear about his life in the trenches, if you look back "I think there is a huge dollar rally coming" - he was right, a serious move upward, March 2018, based on date of this interview. A technical trader without any Ivy league education. More Felix!
  • MP
    Matthew P.
    23 December 2018 @ 07:39
    Bring felix back he’s the best
    • JR
      Jace R.
      2 January 2019 @ 18:44
      It would be nice to get his current outlook.
  • AA
    ALBERTO A.
    17 December 2018 @ 03:52
    Fantastic interview. Super insightful and Grant style is spot on letting the interviewer to share their points of view. Will see it again in a few months. Interesting thoughts on China economy.
  • AS
    Abu S.
    7 November 2018 @ 18:37
    Great Interview...Thanks Grant... I suggest making regular interviews with Mr Felix Zulauf, e.g quarterly or on half year basis, to update viewers on his insight about global market cycles.
    • HL
      HORNLONG L.
      2 December 2018 @ 08:18
      or pay and subscribe to his newsletter :)
  • RS
    Robert S.
    4 November 2018 @ 19:14
    Great mind and great interview!
  • WP
    William P.
    6 October 2018 @ 00:20
    Outstanding.
  • GG
    Geoff G.
    20 September 2018 @ 11:40
    I’ve watched about 70 videos on RV this one so far is the best. Felix mentions subscribers, are there any in here?
  • JC
    James C.
    7 September 2018 @ 07:30
    Really lovely interview. Felix comes across as a wonderfully insightful and independent thinker. Great stuff Grant!
  • JS
    Jason S.
    20 August 2018 @ 15:15
    This interview is incredible - really paints a picture of the future. Felix is an absolute genius, as well!
  • SP
    Seth P.
    12 August 2018 @ 18:10
    Fantastic interview. So many hard earned insights.
  • AT
    Atul T.
    15 July 2018 @ 05:03
    Really great! Will watch again.
  • JL
    Jim L.
    8 July 2018 @ 02:41
    spot on
  • CL
    Chewy L.
    24 June 2018 @ 14:17
    He sure got the direction of the $ right after ~3.5 months after the interview.
    • BS
      Brett S.
      15 January 2019 @ 00:00
      Very, very good dollar call
  • DM
    Darius M.
    1 June 2018 @ 09:25
    hehe personal touch of Florida "39:52" ;D
  • RP
    Ron P.
    13 May 2018 @ 09:43
    To sit at the feet of giants. A brilliant interview subject, brilliantly interviewed. Pure gold!
  • JW
    James W.
    3 May 2018 @ 02:49
    In my view this interview was close to perfection. The depth and pacing of both Mr. Zulauf and Grant were excellent, and we got some directly pertinent analysis of the current market.
  • KN
    Kapilan N.
    29 April 2018 @ 23:46
    Can anyone explain to me why did he say that he normally buy futures and double up with option as market to rally? Why not the other way around?
    • JO
      Jens O.
      11 May 2018 @ 18:52
      Felix mentioned - not only in this interview but since years - that he is always early and that he hates to lose capital. Putting both together would work for me: If you are early, option's time value declines "too much" before you eventually start to be right. You lose the premium payed and need to add to or even renew you position. With outright Futures you just can wait, with some rolling differentials. Plus as Felix must be very good at cycles, when the train left the (bull) station, he most likely has more than just an educated guess in order to time the options expiration. Does that makes sense?
  • TT
    Timothy T.
    29 April 2018 @ 04:57
    "At turning points, you are lonely". I have been there a few times. Great interview. A lot of resonance with his experience
  • SH
    Stefan H.
    27 April 2018 @ 20:48
    Great interview! Super! Thanks.
  • HL
    Hardik L.
    27 April 2018 @ 03:10
    this is a really good interview !!!
  • BT
    Bazsi T.
    23 April 2018 @ 00:45
    How do you trade?
  • AA
    Aaron A.
    19 April 2018 @ 18:08
    This has to be one of the best interviews I've seen on RV. Thank you Grant and team!
  • RF
    Robert F.
    13 April 2018 @ 19:37
    My favourite interview so far. Great work RV
  • MB
    Matthew B.
    13 April 2018 @ 06:57
    One of the most enjoyable episodes, excellent work!
  • GS
    Greg S.
    10 April 2018 @ 10:36
    Excellent work Grant, thoroughly enjoyed that
  • ii
    ida i.
    8 April 2018 @ 17:54
    You are always alone at the turning points, it is so true!!
  • DR
    Daren R.
    7 April 2018 @ 16:12
    Perfect calm and clarity of the interview a testament to Felix's ongoing industry, evident from his well thought views on current markets and also Grants prep and contemplative and considered style. Enjoyed it thanks.
  • NW
    Norbert W.
    6 April 2018 @ 16:13
    Awesome piece, Grant. Have you guys thought about making this available (for a discount) to selected business schools, or on learning platforms/online degree sites? Considering that the young generation prefers watching screens over reading, you should have a huge market there! Cheers from Austin!
  • CH
    Connor H.
    6 April 2018 @ 15:08
    A few years ago Felix was on the Barron's roundtable and said to short everything essentially, every geographic region of the world. I did and lost a fair amount of money. I will skip his interview.
  • B
    Bojo .
    6 April 2018 @ 14:58
    This is why Real Vision is worth paying for.
  • MS
    Matt S.
    6 April 2018 @ 06:44
    what does he mean you could buy P/E ratios that were lower than the dividend yield?
    • WS
      William S.
      18 April 2018 @ 02:26
      he is looking at the inverse of P/E which is earnings yield
    • sm
      stephane m.
      3 August 2018 @ 01:30
      To William S.... Loved your comments in the Browder interview! How did you know the guy is a fraud?!?!?
  • MB
    Michael B.
    5 April 2018 @ 11:46
    CAnt say enough about interview best I’ve seen. Be good Grant if you post summary points at end. I’m usually on treadmill or car this easy screen shot to retain. Excellent job you did
  • AM
    Alexander M.
    5 April 2018 @ 04:27
    Grant- love your work and humbleness
  • AR
    Alex R.
    5 April 2018 @ 01:39
    Grant is a better interviewer than either Pal or Jim. He does not try to prove how smart he is or derail the momentum with interjections. Each interview is an improvement, you can tell he works at it.
    • EF
      Eric F.
      7 April 2018 @ 03:07
      Grant is a great interviewer but you can’t knock Raoul or Jim. Raoul is super smart and usually interjects with interesting comments or questions. Jim is just great and I love his enthusiasm and you’ve just got to respect his vast knowledge and understanding of history.
    • JM
      John M.
      25 September 2018 @ 22:43
      Alex I'm with you on Grant being excellent as the interviewer. I sense Jim could improve Grant's Interest Rate Observer by more exposure via RV yet I think Jim can mellow & improve as an interviewer over time. Consuelo Mack's interview of Jim Grant in 2015 was (and is) brilliant. There is a skill in it. A chaqu'un sont gout!
  • RA
    Robert A.
    4 April 2018 @ 20:31
    Lovely, just lovely. Felix and Tony Dee....these two Gentlemen will be with me for a long time (partly because of how many times I will replay them). This is Northstar stuff and not easy to come by—thanks again Curator Milton. But oh that Silver story! I thought I had one of MY Financial suicide by self buried deep....and then Felix comes with this! So...I’m about 30, a Harry Browne devotee, and catch some of the late 70’s Real Estate cycle where I wind up about 90% in RE. So, I decide to “diversify” and sell a major holding and put it all in....wait for it....Silver! Within days/week’s Silver goes to $10 and I lose half the money—subsequent review revealed that I kind of missed a Harry Browne “diversifying” trick—you don’t “diversify” by moving from one asset to a different one in the same Asset class (Real Estate and Precious Metals per HB both react to inflation or lack there of similarly much of the time). Dumb @ 30 and perhaps only a little less so 35 years later. Renewing my “hand holding” RV subscription will be a no brainer!
  • RB
    Richard B.
    3 April 2018 @ 16:34
    If I had a penny for every time moans about how much harder its getting to manage money......
    • RB
      Richard B.
      3 April 2018 @ 16:34
      *If I had a penny for every time Grant moans about how much harder it's getting to manage money......
    • EF
      Eric F.
      7 April 2018 @ 03:10
      But it is probably true another symptom of passive investing. Don’t necessarily agree with expensive / bad advice either but I think passive is going to sink a lot of people. You get what you pay for...
  • MM
    Michael M.
    3 April 2018 @ 11:07
    Superb interview. One small point of criticism is that it would have been good for Grant to present the contrary case on rising bond yields - i.e. Japan. Absolutely love this series, thanks.
  • NA
    Nickle A.
    2 April 2018 @ 23:09
    Absolutely brilliant. Excellent interview of a brilliant market legend, Grant. Well worth the subscription. Bravo!
  • JG
    Jeff G.
    2 April 2018 @ 20:03
    Wonderful production values - very professional. Grant, you've found your calling (to our great benefit). So, those "20 stocks that everyone knows about" - everyone but me, for the record.
  • GH
    Gary H.
    2 April 2018 @ 18:25
    An instant classic with one of the all time greats. Thank You RV for the incredible insight. Can't imagine how anybody gave this a thumbs down
  • TJ
    Terry J.
    2 April 2018 @ 15:54
    Another brilliant interview that I could have listened to for hours! Fascinating series that somehow manages to get even better with each new guest! Highly educational; I learnt so much!
  • ag
    anthony g.
    2 April 2018 @ 15:42
    good interview. Learned a lot. Let's see if Zulauf will do it again ? Many thanks to Grant and the RV team.
  • SM
    S M.
    2 April 2018 @ 03:27
    One of the best interview on RVtv, Very educational. Thanks for the great work.
  • NI
    Nate I.
    2 April 2018 @ 00:27
    That was an outstanding interview Grant. I would still rank your conversation with Anthony Deden at #1, but you didn't make it an easy choice. Please keep these conversations coming.
  • ML
    M L.
    1 April 2018 @ 23:15
    Excellent interview. Definitely one of the best (if not the best) interviews on RealVision. And the best of Grant's Conversation series. Well done, Grant for interviewing Felix!
  • DY
    Dmytro Y.
    1 April 2018 @ 16:01
    Best interview by RVTV. Real treasure to watch. Thank you!
  • RM
    Richard M.
    1 April 2018 @ 13:45
    RVTV, I second the request down below (somewhere) that asks if you could get Felix to possibly submit one of his subscriber letters to the RV Publications site for us to view. That would be fantastic!
    • EH
      Edward H.
      2 April 2018 @ 03:12
      He has some older newsletters on his site: http://felixzulauf.com/researchandservices/
    • RM
      Richard M.
      2 April 2018 @ 15:01
      Thanks Edward, I will check those out. But I would also like to see some up to date stuff if he is willing to share with us!
  • IC
    Ibrahim C.
    1 April 2018 @ 11:55
    I have to say that this is a real piece of wealth for me and real value of being a RVTV subscriber! However, it would be great to know his annual rate of return consistently over his trading career, as Peter Brandt recently said in the RV Trader portion that nobody can barely master over 50% consistently over the years.
  • TT
    Tokyo T.
    1 April 2018 @ 11:15
    Great job Grant, fantastic interview mate.
  • PC
    Peter C.
    1 April 2018 @ 07:52
    More of this conversation. RV TV you need to tell us paying customers. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wfzmgfYiMYM
  • GO
    Gary O.
    1 April 2018 @ 01:57
    If you did not learn something from this one, cancel your subscription. This guy is gold. Part two in one year would be great!
  • BP
    Bryce P.
    1 April 2018 @ 01:24
    One of the best interviews I've watched on RV. Felix was Fantastic!!!
  • DP
    Devraj P.
    31 March 2018 @ 22:54
    Would be great if Felix Zulauf would publish report under Think Tank !!! None the less spectacular work Grant !!
  • GA
    Gustavo A.
    31 March 2018 @ 22:07
    Does anyone have comments to share on Felix’s news letter
  • AH
    Andreas H.
    31 March 2018 @ 18:35
    very, very good one, because Felix is a bull when you need to be a bull and a bear when you need to be a bear, very, flexible, always seeing the opportunity! Great Interview! His call on Europe (continental) is exactly right!
  • JH
    Jesse H.
    31 March 2018 @ 18:12
    Fantastic interview, that's for sure. Three key themes that keep coming up for me with these superb interviews by Grant (Felix Zulauf, Tony Deden, others): - "At important [market] turning points, you're always alone." No kidding. - Exceptional investors think for themselves and follow the courage of their convictions, while at the same time mixing in a healthy dose of pragmatism to manage risk. These are two key long-term ingredients of success. - The markets have totally changed over the last 25 years -- we are no longer dealing with our historic (and cherished) free-market system. We are increasingly dealing with a market framework which is the result of some hidden & some overt collaborations between financial and political elites. This is especially clear to me when it comes to US markets. The cost of this collaboration is wider societal prosperity and economic mobility for young people...both of which have been hammered in recent decades. Intervention at the current scale is hurting most of us, and is building in huge market inefficiencies and distortions which may unwind very unpleasantly when the lie of central bank interventionism dies, which it inevitably will eventually.
    • JH
      Jesse H.
      3 April 2018 @ 23:28
      And worth mentioning, the interview with Jonathan Tepper from Variant (just posted recently) also touches on some of the exact same points Felix did: we really have in many key industries a veneer of capitalism covering up true oligopolies and consolidated industries.
  • rr
    rlw r.
    31 March 2018 @ 18:06
    Just bloody brilliant, thank you Grant and Felix
  • PB
    Pieter B.
    31 March 2018 @ 14:01
    Felix you are one of my big heroes! Grant: massive thanks for your fantastic work again!
  • JD
    John D.
    31 March 2018 @ 14:01
    Superb !!! Well done Grant...
  • rp
    ross p.
    31 March 2018 @ 13:45
    Felix thank you for sharing your experiences and views on the markets. So many things I was able to learn from this fantastic interview. I found that his ability to time market cycles and follow his convictions is how he excelled from the crowd. Wish the interview was twice as long. Grant hopefully you can interview him again. Awesome
  • RL
    Rui L.
    31 March 2018 @ 12:20
    i liked him. I also listened to https://www.bloomberg.com/news/audio/2017-11-21/felix-zulauf-discusses-the-evolution-of-markets , in case of interest . best!
  • MM
    Michael M.
    31 March 2018 @ 12:15
    fantastic
  • BR
    Bernard R.
    31 March 2018 @ 11:12
    Fantastic interview! Listening to Mr. Zulauf's storied career was Riveting! ( Grant you outdid yourself on this one. WOW and Thanks you so much!
  • bh
    bjorn h.
    31 March 2018 @ 08:55
    A thematic follow up after this excellent interview would be on his correction in commodities, bearish case on copper and other base metals premise. The Tesla and electric car structural bulls are now big bulls on copper, so this would be an interesting episode as demand supply analysis on copper usage in electric vehicles seem somewhat optimistic. I would of liked to understand more on how Felix's framework comes to the understanding that long commodities is a consensus trade. Since he is a seasoned futures trader, I am assuming it is his reference to the overly bullish speculative positioning in CFTC and that often can be used to time the shorter cycles. Other than that. I would of very much liked to understand how he sets up a check list for the contrarian, lonely phase which he described that is part of his process.
    • IO
      Igor O.
      31 March 2018 @ 19:34
      I second that. I find him talking about trading around his real estate portfolio interesting.
  • FC
    Fractal C.
    31 March 2018 @ 00:07
    Big fan of Felix. BUT BUT BUT, Grant needs to bring this down a bit at an investment framework level rather than keep it at people and personality level. It was really important to understand Felix's investment framework and get some examples of business / market cycles. Anyways!
  • BT
    Brian T.
    30 March 2018 @ 23:05
    Top marks! I don’t know how Grant keeps outdoing himself but it is truly extraordinary. And thank you Felix for the gracious contribution of your time and wisdom. Bravo!
  • js
    jacob s.
    30 March 2018 @ 22:39
    Very humble.
  • LC
    Liliana C.
    30 March 2018 @ 22:08
    What a super smart, genuine and humble man! Love Felix and thank you for the golden nuggets --where he sees this cycle going. Terrific!
  • JM
    Joakim M.
    30 March 2018 @ 21:15
    Brilliant
  • MT
    Michael T.
    30 March 2018 @ 20:38
    Excellent as always, Grant- I really like this series, your excellent selection of guests, your fantastic social aptitude and your extraordinary ability in interviewing your guests in a way that lets us learn a lot from their wealth of experience.
    • JH
      Jesse H.
      31 March 2018 @ 17:53
      Completely agree. : )
  • TE
    Tito E.
    30 March 2018 @ 19:16
    Felix Zulauf's like Lisa from Weird Science; all the best attributes in one!
  • RM
    Ron M.
    30 March 2018 @ 19:07
    Felix is the man! Haven't laughed so much watching a finance video... his '87 story is classic. Well done, Grant
  • BA
    Ben A.
    30 March 2018 @ 18:33
    Another Real Vision " Tour de force". Grant has a very unique skill. Thanks RV! Felix is a legend in his own lunch time!
  • ed
    elizabeth d.
    30 March 2018 @ 17:56
    I think perhaps my favorite series yet (although Jim Grant was pretty awesome too). Bravo Grant! Can't wait for the next one!
  • PJ
    Peter J.
    30 March 2018 @ 17:38
    Great interview, the last half hour was especially good and worth re-watching
  • AD
    Ajit D.
    30 March 2018 @ 17:01
    EXCELLENT!!!
  • SS
    Steve S.
    30 March 2018 @ 16:15
    Once again another insightful and thoughtful discussion with an individual of character and deep experience. RV provides access to a range of mentors in life and business that I've never been able to find elsewhere. Greatly appreciate your time Felix and the sincerity of your approach Grant in exploring people's life journeys. Thank you.
  • DD
    Daniel D.
    30 March 2018 @ 16:01
    So grateful to Felix and Grant for this type of conversation. It's very refreshing and insightful when you get humble, honest and experienced reflection of an outstanding career and participation in the markets. Another outstanding RV piece, thank you.
  • DK
    Damian K.
    30 March 2018 @ 15:43
    Top quality interview. Felix is a sharp thinker and a straightforward person. Good stuff
  • ii
    ida i.
    30 March 2018 @ 15:27
    I was happy as soon as I read the title
  • RM
    Richard M.
    30 March 2018 @ 15:13
    Wow Grant - you keep knocking it out of the park with these one-on-one interviews with the living legends of finance. I really enjoy and LEARN so much from these interviews. I don't know how you will keep up this level of "amazing" but I will definitely continue to watch and look forward to as many more of these as you can do. Thank you so much for this precious time! [and Felix thank you so much for sharing your insights - just fantastic stuff. I hope you are enjoying life in "retirement" as you definitely deserve it!]
  • SB
    Stephen B.
    30 March 2018 @ 12:25
    Cant believe that Grant managed to persuade Felix Zulauf to give an in depth interview. Another great interview - one of my all time favorites.
    • JG
      Jeff G.
      2 April 2018 @ 19:39
      ...and stunning production values. Those "20 stocks that everyone knows about" - unabashed about my ignorance. Names anyone?
    • JH
      Jesse H.
      3 April 2018 @ 23:32
      To another viewer's point, I don't understand this tag, "Hotly Debated." Basically, every person who has commented wholeheartedly agrees with this comment. Is this tag just a function of the number of disparate comments below the original comment? Curious...
  • JB
    Jack B.
    30 March 2018 @ 10:50
    Just fantastic!
    • SH
      Stefan H.
      27 April 2018 @ 20:47
      Great interview! Super! Thanks.

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