A Bull’s Warning

Published on
July 1st, 2019
Duration
54 minutes

A Bull’s Warning

The Interview ·
Featuring Nick Sofocleous and Tony Greer

Published on: July 1st, 2019 • Duration: 54 minutes

In this unique interview, Tony Greer of The Morning Navigator draws out some of the keen insights that Nick Sofocleous, senior vice president at Sanford Bernstein, has garnered over thirty years in the markets. Of particular interest is the tick index rule Sofocleous follows as a signpost for market entry. He and Greer also discuss the uniqueness of the current market environment and its economic and political underpinnings. Sofocleous then warns that we are likely late in this business cycle, which tempers the bullishness he has maintained for the past eight years. Filmed June 24, 2019 in New York.

Comments

Transcript

  • JF
    Joseph F.
    7 July 2019 @ 03:20
    Fantastic as usual.
  • RG
    Rick G.
    6 July 2019 @ 22:42
    Tony, Go easy on these clowns like Nic C. I’m sure he has done a lot of “backtesting”and is much smarter than the 40 year veterans. Perhaps you can get Nic C. on a future interview so we can pick up some of his trading secrets.
  • F
    Floyd .
    5 July 2019 @ 21:20
    Even as a forty year veteran of the markets/industry I thoroughly enjoy other veterans discussing their impressions of market history and what they learned . I hope new entrances in the industry thoughtfully listen to interviews like this and learn from them. Please bring Nick back for periodic updates and many thanks to him for the time he took to participate. Tony had great structure to the interview and let Nick talk,many thanks for that also. Sorry but didn't like the commercial at the end,find a different place to do this ,like separate email etc...
  • TM
    Tariq M.
    4 July 2019 @ 13:31
    I have been a member since first week of Real Vision launch. Lot of great interviews over this time but for me Nick Sofocleous interview is the best in terms of REAL SHARING OF SOME OF HIS TOOLS i can use.
  • CD
    Cheryl D.
    4 July 2019 @ 13:17
    Nick is brilliant!!!!! Thanks RVT!!!!!!!
    • MB
      Mo B.
      6 July 2019 @ 22:59
      I disagree. Any threat is one to many.
  • JM
    John M.
    4 July 2019 @ 00:11
    Very good interview Tony! Just a minor point though in the interests of historical accuracy. Didn't Lyndon Johnson physically assault McChesney Martin because he disagreed with Fed policy? While Trump tweets are likely inappropriate I think physical threats are a greater danger to Fed independence. Just my opinion!
    • RY
      Roy Y.
      4 July 2019 @ 10:28
      Superb!
  • lD
    lance D.
    3 July 2019 @ 20:25
    nice watch
  • GG
    Gary G.
    3 July 2019 @ 03:37
    Two words---->> Awesome interview!!
  • JM
    Jamie M.
    2 July 2019 @ 22:40
    Tony - what a great interview, it was great to hear you gentlemen discuss entry opportunities to the markets. What advice would you have for those later in life, who have only recently been able to pursue an interest in the markets? Many thanks.
    • lD
      lance D.
      3 July 2019 @ 20:25
      fund an account and go FEEL Volatility and if you have REALLY felt it then you probably have lost your money in the account BUT now your ready to pursue an interest in markets . It's been 7yrs since i took an interest in markets, 1 blown futures accounts & 1 CFD account up in smoke = volatility well and truly felt LOL & 'slowly slowly catchy monkey' from here on = Drain Unblocker/Rat catcher to Wall St HAHA - AVIT. TIP do not day trade without volatility and size position correctly for share check the beta's . good luck and take your time . you l be ok .
  • RA
    Robert A.
    2 July 2019 @ 18:33
    Another great one from Tony who, in this video, represented the very Ethos of RV—the unselfish sharing of personal frameworks and tools of their trade in order to teach, enlighten and motivate we viewers. Delightful gentlemen with a hard to pronounce name that you’d just love to share a Pint with! Thanks again Tony for bringing Nick on and sharing your personal pocket info guy.
  • NC
    Nic C.
    2 July 2019 @ 14:30
    what a load of garbage. just trite filler "it took me 3 years to figure out -1000 tick wasn't the number" - 3 years - you could backtest it in a day, two
    • TG
      Tony G. | Contributor
      2 July 2019 @ 18:30
      LOL clown.
    • NC
      Nic C.
      3 July 2019 @ 06:02
      Tony!!!! don't worry, I didn't expect an intelligent reply
    • NS
      Nick S.
      3 July 2019 @ 14:52
      May I reply?
    • NS
      Nick S.
      3 July 2019 @ 15:03
      My response: Back-testing is terrific for those that don't have to trade live markets. I have read several research papers that have detailed analysis of "back-testing". As yet I haven't seen a "back-tested" system from raw data ever work consistently. I think the reason is that it just uses RAW DATA and theis isn't room for nuance. Thus, for me to use something that consistently worked foe me, I needed it to work in REAL TIME. That unfortunately required patience. Patience is also something that you have to learn over time. The second reason I couldn't backtest it, was the data was terrible and the computing power from 1990-1997 was horrendous! Sometimes you just have to do things over time and learn. That was the road that I traveled. It isn't for everyone, neither should it be used as a get rich quick system. Hopefully that came across in this friendly and cordial conversation.
    • NC
      Nic C.
      5 July 2019 @ 13:40
      Nick. To your first point, you're not really talking about a system. You're just referring to TICK extremes that signal bottoms/reversals. It's a fixed point/moment irrespective of the time frame you're using. As to your second point, I dont remember which year it was when you had the realisation at 1300 TICK - I want to hesitate a guess between 07-12 - so quite a lot of years of data to go back through. Excuse me if it was earlier
    • NC
      Nic C.
      5 July 2019 @ 13:41
      anyway, if it works for you, terrific. Tick extremes on any timeframe can and do signal exhaustion - just depends on the context
    • MB
      Mo B.
      6 July 2019 @ 21:42
      @nic c. Please learn to respectfully disagree.
  • WB
    William B.
    2 July 2019 @ 13:46
    Wow. What a history lesson. I lived through a lot of those market gyrations, and they sometimes frightened me. This interview gives me more perspective. This should help me as I move forward.
  • AB
    Anne-Marie B.
    2 July 2019 @ 10:34
    This was one of the most illuminating, entertaining and interesting episodes EVER. Thank you both gentlemen, for the time and energy you gave to make this possible!
    • NC
      Nic C.
      2 July 2019 @ 14:47
      A-Marie - do you work for RVTV by any chance?
    • TM
      Tariq M.
      4 July 2019 @ 13:36
      Good to see you on RVTV and reading your response. I feel the same as you do but you have shared it better.
  • CH
    Colin H.
    2 July 2019 @ 09:38
    Very interesting man
  • LE
    Loui E.
    2 July 2019 @ 06:08
    Tony needs to seriously answer our questions on COPX? You disappeared after the last show and never heard back from you.
    • TG
      Tony G. | Contributor
      2 July 2019 @ 11:58
      Loui E. you seriously need to leave the comments section. The COPX trade didn't work. Move on with your life.
  • CS
    Christian S.
    2 July 2019 @ 05:09
    Nick & Tony - you guys are providing such tremendous value! I love that your discussion was not slanted to one side or the other regarding the markets AND regarding policy! Sincere thanks for putting together what your logic and beliefs are and making it available to retail traders, like myself. Even more interesting is hearing how using seasonality and the historical approach to some the most recent power moves in the market. Just my humble opinion, you hit the nail right on the head when you hesitated to characterize this current market in the same light. I believe that the digital economy with technology leading the way can very well carry manufacturing data. But, what if this paradigm shift, especially considering the launch of 5G on the horizon, is NOT reflected in the standard and outdated models of policy makers??? Is there time remaining in this bull to consolidate until 5G launches and the consumer shift to e-commerce is priced into new or updated macro and micro models?
    • TG
      Tony G. | Contributor
      2 July 2019 @ 11:59
      Kind of you to say Christian thank you.
  • KD
    Kaj D.
    2 July 2019 @ 03:18
    Thank you Nick & Tony for sharing your knowledge & experiences – great interview.
    • TG
      Tony G. | Contributor
      2 July 2019 @ 11:59
      Thanks Kaj.
  • AG
    AlA G.
    2 July 2019 @ 02:02
    Look, an Easter egg!
  • SB
    Stephen B.
    1 July 2019 @ 22:08
    Excellent. This is what RV is about.
  • JH
    Jesse H.
    1 July 2019 @ 21:39
    I'm quietly hoping that Raoul's pitch at the end of this video is just some kind of comic relief thing, which seems to be a theme for some July 1st videos. Otherwise, I have some significant reservations about what is going on, and am totally confused by this tweak in business strategy.
    • MK
      Michael K.
      2 July 2019 @ 00:38
      It doesn’t bother me. They r built. Great authentic machine. Keep up the classic old school legends and professional level content and do the rest as you please.
    • CM
      C M.
      2 July 2019 @ 02:39
      The video production business is very competitive. Not sure that is the direction I would take it.
    • JL
      J L.
      2 July 2019 @ 02:45
      someone has a dream of becoming the netflix of finance with all the fame and glory that would come with it, it's been going on for a while and will continue
  • PW
    Phil W.
    1 July 2019 @ 21:24
    Very nice indeed!
  • Jb
    Jeremy b.
    1 July 2019 @ 20:51
    Solid interview
  • SS
    Sam S.
    1 July 2019 @ 20:25
    Hey Tony, great interview. How about some "tick" index numbers as you guys see them for today? Thanks to Nick for sharing such insightful tools and experiences.
    • TG
      Tony G. | Contributor
      2 July 2019 @ 11:59
      thanks Sam.
  • AA
    Abubaker A.
    1 July 2019 @ 18:46
    Great interview by Tony and great info by Nick on the in-outs of a bull market.
    • TG
      Tony G. | Contributor
      2 July 2019 @ 12:00
      Thanks so much Abubaker.
  • SW
    Scott W.
    1 July 2019 @ 18:11
    What if one is not among the best and brightest?
    • TR
      Thomas R.
      1 July 2019 @ 21:49
      Re-Frame yourself. Tom Brady was the 199th pick, a compensatory pick, the the sixth round of the 2000 NFL Draft. He didn't consider himself outside the "best and brightest"
    • SW
      Scott W.
      2 July 2019 @ 13:29
      Fantastic perspective T.R!
  • JC
    Juan C.
    1 July 2019 @ 16:53
    Great interview!
  • MK
    Mike K.
    1 July 2019 @ 16:15
    This is exactly what I needed after that week of crypto. So much to unpack from these life lessons. Thanks Tony and Nick!
    • TG
      Tony G. | Contributor
      2 July 2019 @ 12:00
      Sure Mike glad you liked it.
  • JL
    Johnny L.
    1 July 2019 @ 16:01
    this was a great interview
    • TG
      Tony G. | Contributor
      2 July 2019 @ 12:00
      Wow thanks Johnny L.
  • JD
    John D.
    1 July 2019 @ 15:15
    Great job Nick and Tony. One of the better, more informative RV interviews I've seen in a while. Bravo.
    • TG
      Tony G. | Contributor
      2 July 2019 @ 12:01
      Thank you John D. Truly appreciate that.