A Glimpse Behind the Chinese Wall

Featuring Anne Stevenson-Yang

Anne Stevenson-Yang is a true China insider, having lived for 25 years in a country that everyone has an opinion of, but few know exactly what’s going on. Outspoken in her views, Anne has a unique perspective of China’s opaque economy, the true position on credit markets and capital flight, as well as the lengths Xi Jinping will go to in order to achieve his objectives, over the long term and ahead of November’s 19th Party Congress. Filmed on July 14, 2017, in New York.

Published on
31 July, 2017
Topic
Structural flows, China
Duration
53 minutes
Asset class
Currencies, Equities, Commodities
Rating
26

Comments

  • JD

    Jonathan D.

    9 9 2017 17:03

    0       0

    Need someone (Anne?) to talk about the Congress announcements in November

  • VM

    Vincent M.

    15 8 2017 12:43

    0       1

    Centralization tends to distort markets since "all regions / companies" are treated the same. Just like the US, the feds have distorted the markets by their actions and government regulation often gets it wrong with one size fits all. Love how the elites , no matter where they are, always seem to avoid the chaos and costs.

    Great piece....

  • JC

    John C.

    9 8 2017 17:50

    1       0

    Very informative. Definitely a more even-keel review of China. Contrast this with the RV Publications piece which was more like a hedge fund case for China. Am sure China will end up ok but seems like a lot of short to medium term hurdles are in place and that massive debtload will absolutely crimp growth at some point.

  • PJ

    Peter J.

    7 8 2017 09:01

    1       0

    Excellent interview hope you get her back in a year or so

  • WM

    William M.

    5 8 2017 15:33

    6       0

    Good interview but the hand held camera shots need to stop, just use a tripod

  • DP

    David P.

    5 8 2017 12:51

    12       0

    "out of my paygrade" when asked about the China Japan relationship.
    Hats off to a very humble person who knows her own limits. Gives a whole new layer of value to the rest of her conversation.

  • TW

    Thomas W.

    2 8 2017 15:53

    1       1

    Have to echo ... great interview. Smart smart lady.

  • DY

    Damian Y.

    2 8 2017 06:02

    3       9

    Good interview. All I've heard about is how China is going to be the new superpower. With debt to GDP at more than 260% (and it's probably more), I can't see how this is possible. It really reminds me of the 80's when Japan was going to be the next superpower, and they were buying assets all over the world. Their economy is nothing more than a bad joke now. The Chinese really suffer from small man syndrome. They want the biggest buildings, the biggest economy, the biggest dams etc. It's all about ego and saving face. When their big debt bubble burst there is only one way that China is going to go, and that's down.

  • ZH

    Zack H.

    2 8 2017 00:40

    6       0

    To many people in the bear china trade now, just seems like too hard to bet against such a huge global player that doesnt have to play by same rules as North America.

  • RW

    Robert W.

    1 8 2017 18:49

    1       0

    Sounds like Xi is on board for the Fabian plan to me. Trump left in the dust.

  • RM

    Richard M.

    1 8 2017 14:47

    12       0

    Fascinating interview, she is a really sharp lady! She also did a nice interview with Demetri Kofinas which gave us a little more of her background and history. Worthwhile to listen to also:

    http://www.hiddenforcespod.com/ep-16-chinese-economy-chinese-financial-system/

    • DY

      Damian Y.

      2 8 2017 06:08

      4       0

      Thanks for the link, good interview.

  • SS

    Sam S.

    1 8 2017 14:08

    10       0

    Very confident interview which cleared the fog of misperception around currency, politics and business. Great questions Grant. Well done!

  • GB

    Grant B.

    1 8 2017 12:36

    3       0

    Pretty good. When is SImon Hunt coming back on? U should really have him on soon well before CCPC in Nov.

  • JV

    Jason V.

    1 8 2017 05:21

    16       1

    Excellent interview. The simple reality, seen with intelligence and spoken with clarity and calmness, is always so refreshing (and of immense value to investors). Look forward to future updates by Anne.

  • rm

    russell m.

    1 8 2017 02:55

    10       0

    seek commparable people in other countries also.

  • rm

    russell m.

    1 8 2017 02:54

    5       0

    Great interview. Use it as a template

  • DS

    David S.

    1 8 2017 00:59

    2       0

    A country’s foreign exchange reserves can be simply thought of as its sovereign wealth fund in foreign currencies, gold, IMF drawing rights, etc. It would be great if they were all backed by gold, but already each country is buying/selling all types of foreign exchange assets to the best of its ability. China constantly changes its FX balance and composition, and so are the rest of the countries of the world. It is a tough, complicated world. DLS

  • KA

    Kelly A.

    1 8 2017 00:45

    1       1

    It would be great to hear in a follow-up piece about whether the rumors are true of small/medium-sized USA companies being "encouraged" [via various means] to sell out to Chinese partners. Perhaps even some larger USA companies finding it challenging to do business in China now. Anyone else heard of this?

  • RA

    Robert A.

    31 7 2017 23:46

    7       0

    Excellent interview and the SDR unqualified comment was worth the price of admission. Also the anecdotal arrest and shake down story resonates powerfully, IMO.

  • KB

    Kreso B.

    31 7 2017 21:15

    0       18

    Grant:"SDR is a joke."

    Sure Grant. As if you'd know.

    • WS

      William S.

      31 7 2017 21:36

      4       0

      This is hardly a counter-argument to the suggestion that the SDR has no viable future as a substitute global reserve currency in lieu of the USD. Quite to the contrary, if rejection of the USD as "the" trade settlement currency continues to accelerate, there is simply no way the SDR will be adopted in its stead. Rather, I believe we will see a widespread rejection of ALL fiat currencies, and gold, yet again (as it always has) assuming its millennia-old role as the *only* Tier 1 currency.

  • SB

    Stephen B.

    31 7 2017 17:30

    28       0

    Excellent! My biggest take-away was that China has decided that they do not want to host a reserve currency (let alone rival the US for that status). That might also explain why we now see fewer indications of a move towards the SDR as the worlds next reserve currency. So what does that mean for the world? The US$ finds new and unexpected support as the worlds reserve currency? Possibly, but seeing as China is now buying oil in Yuan, unlikley. Does this therefore lend credibility to the theory that China now favors a move towards a gold backed trade note for international trade? Thoughts?

    • WS

      William S.

      31 7 2017 21:19

      10       0

      Yes, this was an excellent interview, and provides all of us with a very different perspective than that espoused by some of the China observers who tend to regard the Chinese as consummate 3D chess players (so to speak) who have everything completely under control.

      I have gone back and forth, but the more I learn, the more inclined I am to believe in the correctness of the argument put forth by Kyle Bass et al.: the Chinese simply do not possess sufficient financial acumen to "stick the landing" necessitated by their numerous debt-fueled excesses.

    • NZ

      Nicholas Z.

      2 8 2017 05:14

      3       0

      have a look at the Luke Gromen interview...he backs the Gold backed trade note theory

  • DC

    D C.

    31 7 2017 16:03

    6       0

    "No fraud happens in the US" sentiment conveyed by Grant early in interview...hahaha...made me laugh.

  • TS

    Thomas S.

    31 7 2017 15:08

    22       0

    Excellent interview, Grant. This is what I paid for.

    • TS

      Thomas S.

      31 7 2017 16:17

      2       0

      How is a taxing, currency-issuing, force protected central government indistinguishable from any region's most powerful syndicate? They all push authority and control as far as the people allow.