A Mathematical Trading Edge

Published on
July 28th, 2017
Duration
56 minutes

A Mathematical Trading Edge

The Interview ·
Featuring Bill Strazzullo

Published on: July 28th, 2017 • Duration: 56 minutes

Bill Strazzullo of Bell Curve Trading looks at markets from a purely mathematical and statistical perspective, to frame his analysis and gain his edge, to produce trading strategies across the financial markets. In a fast-paced tour of global asset classes, Bill sets out his calls, across timeframes, for equities, bonds, foreign exchange and commodities, including a gutsy forecast for the euro and further upside for international stocks. Filmed on July 14, 2017, in New York.

Comments

  • HM
    Holland M.
    3 November 2018 @ 10:45
    So.... basically look at the volume profile on the price axis and determining where on a log-normal distribution of probable outcomes the equity will trade at... am I missing something here?
  • CH
    Chris H.
    10 September 2018 @ 17:46
    Although I had made a similar comment below, I think he really should be a regular, particularly as most calls on the grains on RV have not worked out very well. Not complaining, but he would be my goto guy for all commodities including grains, softs such as coffee, cotton, etc. (not to talk about forex and indexes).
    • CH
      Chris H.
      10 September 2018 @ 17:53
      Oops, I got that wrong, they are not offering recommendations grains on their website, but I believe they would be able to comment on them as well, especially as they are purely technical.
  • AL
    Andrew L.
    17 August 2018 @ 04:54
    I love everything this guy is saying!
  • gh
    garry h.
    8 March 2018 @ 04:06
    Only just watched this piece 8 months after filming. Bill may have just one the award on real vision for the most recommendations in one interview and absolutely nailing everyone. Bonds, Euro, Index's, oil, Cad. Genius.
    • CH
      Chris H.
      10 September 2018 @ 17:30
      Checking his forecasts more than a year later, he really nailed it across the board, as my predecessor has already pointed out. Please have him back soon!
  • LT
    Luis T.
    18 August 2017 @ 16:34
    Excellent. Just excellent. And loved his energy as well as his insight.
    • BS
      Bill S. | Contributor
      18 August 2017 @ 22:43
      Thanks Luis, Much appreciated. Help yourself to a free trial of our newsletters: www.bellcurvetrading.com
    • VK
      Vladimir K.
      16 September 2017 @ 18:29
      Thanks Bill. That was great. You sound like the one who read Van Tharp. Or maybe was the one who was studied by Tharp :).
  • BB
    Bob B.
    17 August 2017 @ 18:01
    He gave 2 different numbers for the Mid range of Crude on the Feb. 2016 rally. First he stated 40.41 afterwards he said 41.40. Which one is correct?
    • BS
      Bill S. | Contributor
      18 August 2017 @ 22:41
      I said it is between $40.00 and $41.00, I was probably speaking too fast for my own good. The precise level is $40.63 (have to use the Continuation Contract - Futures).
  • BA
    Ben A.
    6 August 2017 @ 20:02
    Jordan Belfort on speed!
  • ST
    Simon T.
    4 August 2017 @ 07:32
    Thanks guys, enjoyed this. Listened to Bill at an MTA conference, always passionate and has a view...
  • RR
    Raj R.
    4 August 2017 @ 01:21
    It was awesome! I tend to agree we are going higher from here. Signs of frustration from investors! No where to hide but stocks
    • BS
      Bill S. | Contributor
      18 August 2017 @ 22:44
      Thanks Raj, take a test drive of our research with a free trial: www.bellcurvetrading.com
  • JO
    Jens O.
    3 August 2017 @ 06:16
    As mentioned below price-volume analytics were popularized by Peter Steidlmayer some decades ago ... there is also a book on his methodology on the web (google Steven_Hawkins-Steidlmayer_on_Markets, watch out for the [PDF]) ... other names are Robin Mesch and Jim Dalton (both on with presentations on YouTube) ... Bill is really passionate :) and Grant is hooked by bold tail bets, isn't he? ;-) ... in my humble opinion, there may be two problems with the content explosion at RVTV: a) it's just a snapshot, if you see people once a year or every six months ... less but on a shorter/regular time lag would be more helpful to follow and to judge on their calls/consistency/performance ... b) there may be an issue for RVTV coming up, that they degenerate to a Marketing channel for "all the experts" ... this one was close ...
  • SW
    Scott W.
    2 August 2017 @ 15:27
    that was excellent!! Thank you!!
  • AE
    Aleksey E.
    2 August 2017 @ 10:16
    How does this differ from just using bollinger bands which assume a normal distribution and set confidence intervals around an average price movement period? If you run any meaningful quantitative analysis or even simple backtests, you will see that these indicators do not generate significant profits.
    • JO
      Jens O.
      3 August 2017 @ 05:51
      Sure they different because it's "volume distributed on price", not just "price on price" like Bollingers are ... Are you aware of a historical backtest/evaluation on volume-price systems/strategies?
  • SA
    Scott A.
    2 August 2017 @ 00:32
    Not sure I have ever seen so many trade recommendations in a RV interview. Have to him credit. Plus, coming on to RV and saying just ignore macro takes guts.
  • PW
    Phil W.
    1 August 2017 @ 22:07
    Sorry could not finish viewing, talk about a mile a minute
  • CC
    Charnes C.
    1 August 2017 @ 17:26
    Just a concerned viewer, perhaps need evaluation for hyperthyroidism.
  • lD
    lance D.
    1 August 2017 @ 16:09
    I'M the Plumber he's talking about!! . thanks for the plug m8.
  • M.
    Milton .. | Founder
    1 August 2017 @ 15:21
    Want to check out the methodology deck by Bell Curve Trading? Click the link below to download the Powerpoint: https://we.tl/2EAvQFgWIv
    • IO
      Igor O.
      1 August 2017 @ 19:16
      Not clickable? (
    • DH
      Dion H.
      1 August 2017 @ 20:58
      Copy, paste.
  • DC
    Dave C.
    1 August 2017 @ 03:59
    This interview really needed the charts in order to fully describe the concepts being discussed here. The interview with Michael Oliver of MSA managed to do this adequately - this one did not and was an opportunity missed IMHO. There is a tutorial on the Bell Curve trading site here http://www.bellcurvetrading.com/bellcurve/main.nsf/Ex/Tutorials?OpenDocument - I have not watched yet so cannot recommend
    • IS
      Ian S.
      4 August 2017 @ 18:09
      The tutorial was helpful for me. They also gave a hat tip to Peter Steidlmayer in it.
  • RS
    Roger S.
    1 August 2017 @ 01:15
    He kept saying when you look at my chart book. But I never saw it. I have used market profile for years but his explanations could have been much more educational if we could have seen for example charts that showed his shifts etc.
  • ca
    cyavash a.
    31 July 2017 @ 22:35
    An hour long infomercial...disappointed in this video. I didn't see any charts that grant said would be put up and the guest is clearly just trying to sell you on his newsletter
  • RM
    Robert M.
    31 July 2017 @ 21:32
    Yeah, I am surprised also that Grant has never seen market profile before.
  • DR
    David R.
    31 July 2017 @ 20:48
    Thanks to the posters below who provided links for additional info. REALLY nice to finally have a rare interview with a bonafide tech/quant. I fully agree with the interviewee that a tech system is the ONLY way to go, having also been trained in-depth in fundamentals (which are largely useless) and converted to TA. He nails it when he says it enables you to trade without emotion - and I would add, more confidently and profitably (with proper risk management). Thanks again.
  • CL
    Cameron L.
    31 July 2017 @ 20:16
    Adding to Robert W's Link http://www.cmegroup.com/education/steidlmayer-volume-strips-video.html J. Peter Steidlmayer has been a Chicago Board of Trade member for over 40 years. He developed a mainstay of market analysis, Market Profile, and has been a thought leader in how markets behave. Steidlmayer presents his recent research discussing the importance of understanding how price and volume databases as tools for market analysis have changed with the advent of electronic trading, and how these changes effect trading methodology. He discusses: >Why the Market Profile legacy analysis of price and time has changed >How electronic market order flow contrasts to open-outcry order flow >Analyzing volume and price >How the influence of supply (volume) effecting price is the new paradigm Presentation is approximately 94 minutes long.
    • EL
      Elizabeth L.
      1 August 2017 @ 19:33
      Thank you. This was quite informative.
  • IO
    Igor O.
    31 July 2017 @ 20:03
    Would be nice to see actual charts
  • RW
    Robert W.
    31 July 2017 @ 19:42
    Big Sigh at the end because Mr. Bill was 200 km/hr. How many times did he say Mr. Williams name? I counted 43 'Grants.' Great video. Looking more into Market Profile from Steidlmayer work from the CME group here:: https://www.cmegroup.com/education/interactive/marketprofile/handbook.pdf
  • EL
    Elizabeth L.
    31 July 2017 @ 19:22
    I found this piece quite valuable. Is is possible to get a link to a few chart examples. It would help envision what Bill is outlining.
  • HS
    Hisham S.
    31 July 2017 @ 18:04
    Very nice talk but I feel it should have been supplemented with a couple of volume profile chart examples
  • RK
    Roderick K.
    31 July 2017 @ 17:16
    "Math and statistics" ... As a quant, I always cringe when people justify the validity of their approach by simply saying that they use "math/statistics". You can use the right kind of math/statistics and the wrong kind, and you can even use the right models on the wrong type of input-data or time-frames. "The underlying rhythm of the market is based on math and statistics". To me, this is like saying Nature is based on Science :).
  • KB
    Kirk B.
    31 July 2017 @ 16:19
    Great discussion of a unique market strategy and the resulting forecasts for different markets. However, this Realvision discussion again, as it routinely does, ignored one of the most important asset classes: real estate.
  • TM
    Terry M.
    31 July 2017 @ 15:35
    Half an hour in and maybe I'm being premature, but so far, I haven't heard any hat-tip to Peter Steidlmayer who basically created the whole concept of Market Profile and time at price/volume at price to explain Auction Market Theory. BellCurve's entire approach builds on his original work, so he should be credited for his research with at least a mention!