All the Presidents’ Man

Featuring Harald Malmgren

He served as a senior economic advisor to JFK, LBJ, Richard Nixon and Gerald Ford. Now, Harald Malmgren returns to Real Vision with some advice for President Trump amid the threats of a full-blown trade war with China. In this interview with Brian Price, Harald explains that the U.S. auto industry will struggle to compete with Asia and predicts that the overall health of the global economy will soon be in jeopardy. Filmed on August 17, 2018 in New York.

Published on
24 August, 2018
Topic
Global Outlook, Geopolitics, Career
Duration
53 minutes
Rating
60

Comments

  • OD

    Orin D.

    17 9 2018 10:32

    1       0

    Harold is a top quality guest. I love interviews like this where you hear form REAL insiders who know how the governments works in reality.

  • KK

    Kathleen K.

    12 9 2018 14:59

    0       2

    More Trump bashing, how refreshing!

  • je

    james e.

    7 9 2018 00:59

    2       0

    Interesting interview; love hearing from different generations their thoughts and perspectives. Harold has such a breadth of experience, it's valuable to hear his thoughts and perspectives. Since the central theme for most subscribers is investing, I'd love if these interviews concluded with a short discussion of where the interviewees are invested and why.

  • CM

    C M.

    7 9 2018 00:36

    1       0

    It is always good to review history and how past decisions have been made. So thanks for the interview. Carrying those stories forward to today is helpful in analyzing what may happen as the US pursues continued tariff wars.

  • CB

    Chris B.

    3 9 2018 19:43

    4       0

    Very interesting interview. To reinforce what others have said, very nice interviewing job by Brian. Harald said it best when he said “Real Vision is a great invention” as this another very educational piece.

  • JS

    Jerad S.

    2 9 2018 06:01

    0       0

    Great content. This guy is a treasure.

  • DS

    David S.

    31 8 2018 08:52

    0       0

    We rationalize out prejudices even before we think. It is human nature. Both sides know this and pander to their bases. Please look a little longer until you can at least include more than one point of view in your mind. That is what the Enlightenment was all about. The Enlightenment is now dead. Where will we go now for truth. We must go to common ground within the rule of law. That is where Mr. Malmgren tried to go to solve the problems. Can we follow? DLS

  • JL

    James L.

    30 8 2018 21:14

    3       1

    I am sorry, but Harald is simply wrong that GW Bush's cabinet had any kind of expertise when the GFC hit. Paulson didn't know a darn thing other than his beloved GS and others on Wall Street were at death's door. He careened from one idiotic plan (SPV to purchase assets, to forced equity, to outright nationalization (AIG) as the crisis evolved. For God's sake, he relied upon Geithner and Kashkari to develop and roll out solutions, both of whom were completely out of their depth. What Harald fails to realize is that Hayek was right and the "pretence of knowledge" demonstrated by all of this central planners is doomed to failure.

  • RE

    Richard E.

    27 8 2018 19:54

    0       1

    He knows the industry well but he seems to not know that GM has an autonomous unit that was just valued at $11.5bb on the back of a Softbank investment. He may not also know that GM has an investment in Lyft that was just market up by $1bb.

  • VS

    Victor S.

    27 8 2018 16:29

    4       19

    I can’t professionally and politely express how poor Harold was in his comments and ideas. He makes Trump second in how full of himself he is?! He is a total globalist and “fake news” 100% ... for example his downbeat trade talk seems to diverge with the US markets -with virtually every index at ALL TIME HIGHS, and coupled with the bombardment of the press trying to kill trump everyday. Meanwhile Xi Jinping’ Shanghai index is minus 20%???? Mr Brice should have offered to shine his shoes as he offered not one comment of pushback. A true waste of my time.

  • SW

    Scott W.

    27 8 2018 12:56

    9       1

    Obviously a brilliant strategist. Fantastic interview. Perhaps we could have at some point elaboration on the closing narrative regarding impending global crisis - that through "strong" leadership we successfully "resolved" things, and that because of current "weak" leadership, things won't resolve in the next financial crisis. There are those who argue persuasively that the coordinated responses have simply prolonged the day of reckoning - that true market forces rather than intervention would ultimately be better. I don't know. Maybe nobody does. But it would be interesting to get his perspective given the points made during the last ten minutes of the interview.

  • KC

    Kirk C.

    27 8 2018 12:33

    4       6

    Deep state policy wonk dissing Wilbur Ross - what a joke

  • FV

    Fredrik V.

    27 8 2018 06:06

    0       0

    What I can’t get around is who will buy the gold if everyone is selling? Russia and China bet on gold will be .... worthless? Great eye opener for me!

  • SR

    Steve R.

    26 8 2018 23:53

    4       0

    One thing I forgot to mention in my previous comment.....
    I thought it was very interesting his take on Gold, i.e. he believes EM will sell their gold reserves down to meet their USD obligations. Perhaps this is why Gold has record short interest right now?

  • MS

    Martin S.

    26 8 2018 21:06

    3       4

    Great interview - I'll have to watch this one again. I found the last question a little bit unfair, because I don't imagine it would be really possible for anyone to seriously answer it in advance and out of the political context at the time when the question would be asked. I hope I'm wrong, but I think Trump would only ask someone like Harald for help if the S has already HTF. Even then, I think Trump would be much more likely to cast blame on "foreigners" somewhere (MAGA!), and maybe start a war, rather than resorting to diplomacy and communication.

  • MM

    Mike M.

    26 8 2018 18:21

    2       1

    Interesting take on McNuchin Sec. of Treasury.......think most of us out here suspected as much. Harald will get the head's up when it is time to leave the casino, my guess he is not anywhere this farcical Ponzi scheme. Excellent interview.

  • KS

    Kashyap S.

    26 8 2018 17:27

    4       20

    Great insights into the auto industry, but I'm sure he has got several facts wrong. Toyota wanted to set up outside Detroit because they did not want to deal with the unions - that was their primary consideration and not the fluff he talks about. Too self-promotional and pompous for my taste, especially towards the end where he denigrates the achievements of every person he mentions. The man has fed off the State's trough his entire life and clearly has no idea of what it takes to run a successful business. He has probably been kicked off the Deep State clique, hence the shameless advertising of his services to the RealVision audience. Little bit of energy left but Trump doesn't need me boohoo. LOL.

  • BL

    Bruce L.

    26 8 2018 14:04

    3       2

    Thanks for this presentation. Dr. Mahlmgren is a completely unique combination of experience, and brilliance.

  • IO

    Igor O.

    26 8 2018 10:33

    1       4

    Just unbelievable how narrow minded reaction on China's 2025 plan is - We must stop that!

  • SR

    Steve R.

    26 8 2018 09:00

    4       1

    Whenever I listen to Harald I always learn something new.
    Age brings experience, perspective and insight, three qualities sadly underappreciated and largely missing in today's world.

  • LC

    Liliana C.

    26 8 2018 05:22

    5       1

    Epic! I learn so much from the wisdom embedded in this wonderful man! I so want him to be involved in advising the powers that be. Sadly, i totally understand that it's not useful to throw pearls at pigs at this time.

  • JM

    Jason M.

    26 8 2018 04:59

    2       1

    Brian's shining moment so far...

  • RO

    Robert O.

    26 8 2018 03:51

    8       7

    If Trump makes a phone call it should be to Pippa and not Harold since Harold would probably not be able to work with anyone in the White House after this interview.
    Harold's faith in China's power and control maybe misplaced. If and when the next global financial crisis hits I feel that the US will be in a better position than China since the US has more natural resources and much fewer people to support.
    I believe that the Chinese leadership has learned the lesson of the USSR and will not waste its resources on a military build up. So I suspect that China will wait until after the upcoming US elections to see how much support Trump has in the Congress. If Trump's support appears strong then China will make a deal with Trump, if the Democrats win and push for impeachment then China would likely wait for the smoke to clear before making any concessions.
    Trump reminds me of the Joker in the The Dark Knight; especially the scene where he is burning the pile of cash. Surrounded by leaders of the crime community who are shocked at what he is doing, he seems not to care of what others think about him. He feels there is a purpose to his madness but he doesn't feel the need to share it with anyone else. The other similarity is that in spite of extensive efforts to stop Trump from the Left / Never-Trump Right / Mainstream media / Foreign Press / Hollywood / and multiple foreign agents he keeps scoring victories just like the Joker did in the Movie.

  • SF

    Stuart F.

    26 8 2018 02:32

    0       1

    Respect.

  • PB

    Pieter B.

    26 8 2018 01:18

    4       0

    Great conversation! Thanks a lot! The gold goes down story was kind of strange because “the only thing that people want to buy” usually does not go down as much as things that nobody wants to buy.

  • JD

    John D.

    26 8 2018 00:36

    0       0

    Great Stuff !!!

  • RA

    Robert A.

    25 8 2018 22:49

    12       0

    Now THATS something I never thought of or heard anywhere else—Gold will be going down and perhaps even first, as that’s all people are going to be able to sell to get the Liquidity they need! Whether correct or not, it is something I need to consider and hopefully Milton and my fellow RV’ers can weigh in. Brilliant interview (and great editing)—thanks RV.

  • NZ

    Nicholas Z.

    25 8 2018 22:30

    0       0

    great interview. nice macro historical overview. I personally like gold and was interested about his comments that Gold will lead downwards in the next crisis as it will be the only asset that people will buy

  • JH

    Joel H.

    25 8 2018 22:18

    0       0

    Another good one. Thanks RV

  • RK

    Robert K.

    25 8 2018 20:37

    0       0

    Extremely well done. Please try to have him on regularly

  • DB

    Dennis B.

    25 8 2018 19:36

    3       0

    Fascinating! Dr Malmgren is a wonderful communicator; Mr Price is a great listener. A breath-taking combination.

  • HJ

    Harry J.

    25 8 2018 18:24

    3       0

    Good job Brian. Next time ask him how he would/have create a portfolio to prosper if his views come to pass!!

  • BT

    Brian T.

    25 8 2018 17:17

    4       0

    All I can say is thank you. I am truly grateful to both the esteemed Mr. Malmgren and more generally to the creators and employees at RVTV for creating a forum where we can have access to this type of thoughtful dialogue. Whether you agree with him or disagree with him, it's the kind of pure thinking we all need to face the future together. Bravo.

  • SS

    Steve S.

    25 8 2018 16:17

    8       0

    I agree with some of the earlier comments about Brian's interview skills. He did a great job of sparing unnecessary verbage and letting the interviewee speak.

  • SS

    Steve S.

    25 8 2018 16:15

    3       0

    Wonderful interview. It was enlightening to hear the backstory of negotiations that have gone on over the years. Please have Harald Malmgren back in the future.

  • MT

    Mark T.

    25 8 2018 15:24

    1       0

    Whoa! Gotta love Harald. (Pippa too)
    Straightforward, honest and iconoclastic.
    So much experience to back up his opinions.
    Global Macro Giant.

    Nowhere else but RealVision. Great job.

  • WM

    Will M.

    25 8 2018 14:04

    5       0

    If a man of Dr Malmgren's experience foresees a global crisis we had better take note... and of course I this is why the majority of RVT viewers subscribe to this service. His ending comments are very memorable; its so hard to see through the spin. Unfortunately I become more nervous as each month goes by. Good interview by Bryan, kept it moving without needless interjection.

  • WM

    Will M.

    25 8 2018 13:56

    3       0

    Great interview. His comments on the Trump administration players are disappointingly spot on. Its such a pity, it could have been so different.

  • FC

    Fractal C.

    25 8 2018 13:34

    18       1

    Another good thing about this interview was how little Brian spoke! Essentially, he asked a very few questions with very few words and then faded in the background and that was really masterful.

  • MS

    Marius S.

    25 8 2018 12:01

    5       0

    Mr. Malmgren says it himself at the end. There is so much "spin" in the media and so little real talent and opportunity for context and quality analysis. What a privileged to have access to content of this depth.

  • HM

    Hugh M.

    25 8 2018 08:45

    2       0

    Great interview. Such a wise man.

  • SF

    Simon F.

    25 8 2018 08:15

    9       1

    To listen to a man who has had a front row seat at the epicentre of power for over half a century should get the attention of us all. It certainly gets mine. Clearly you don’t keep getting invited back to manage some of the most delicate projects of successive leaders of the world, and to have created an enduring network of trust in global capitals, unless you have something special and understand how the world at this level really works. Therefore, when he identifies the paucity of leadership in our highly connected world, and thereby the prospect of the next financial crisis being a disorderly and drawn out mess, rather than the relatively neat and joined up response we had last time, I for one really sit up and take notice.

  • BM

    Bryan M.

    25 8 2018 04:46

    6       0

    Wow! Now THAT - is a great interview. every time I watch these "in depth" pieces I think, "It can't get any better", and then it does. Kudos to all concerned.

  • ss

    sid s.

    25 8 2018 04:02

    1       2

    why can't this man be our president.

  • CL

    Chuck L.

    25 8 2018 01:24

    8       0

    Thanks for these great insights; Brian did excellent job eliciting punchy comments; also — thanks for quick turnaround time between interview and publication.

  • FC

    Fractal C.

    25 8 2018 00:09

    3       0

    Harold M is an icon. I don’t think they make people like him anymore.

  • AS

    Amareshwar S.

    24 8 2018 23:50

    6       0

    I guess i will remember this conversation forever. Priceless.!!!
    Thanks for sharing your experience and thoughts Harald. Great job RV.

  • RR

    Rex R.

    24 8 2018 23:39

    14       17

    Harold has some interesting perspectives. I respect-- to a degree -- his participation in politics. Ultimately though, one can see through his prejudices/perspectives. To wit-- he is an academecian who then became a potlitical tool.

    Standard operating practice of the system/Deep State--- which has lead us to the situation where we are-- since the Federal Reserve/Bankers in 1913 created the Federal Reserve System-- and began to use/promote/pull the strings --- of this type of academecian-- who never operated a business in any day of his life.

  • PW

    Phil W.

    24 8 2018 23:10

    4       5

    I'm afraid that Mr. Malmgren is right on his worldly view and has the history to back it up! Mr D. Trump (hair piece) and his add-mid are no match for the rest of the world. Has the world's most power full man he is such a baffoon!!!!

    Great Piece thanks Dr M

  • BF

    Bruce F.

    24 8 2018 22:24

    2       1

    he can definitely say, "been there done that" with letting the facts speak for themselves, a truly great American./ also raised a brilliant daughter

  • AE

    Alex E.

    24 8 2018 22:10

    3       1

    Any chance we get Dr. Pippa Malmgren on soon???

  • DS

    David S.

    24 8 2018 21:28

    0       0

    IMO the trade war with China has more to do with the administrations political strategy for the mid-terms and a surrogate border tariff. DLS

  • WM

    William M.

    24 8 2018 19:40

    13       3

    It's such a shame that Trump doesn't have an advisor like Harold. Maybe RV could send this video to the White House! All this great wisdom and experience could really help the whole world move forward in a win-win fashion versus the zero sum thinking that prevails right now. Bravo guys! This certainly makes RV very special and worthwhile...and not just for investing reasons, but to better understand our complex, fast-moving world.

  • NH

    Neil H.

    24 8 2018 18:19

    15       1

    Harold is always worth listening to in order to get the big picture, wish the interview was even longer. Kudos to Brian for a great job. My last question to Harold would have been based on what you have said, how are you invested today? Perhaps we can get him back to answer this for us.

  • AA

    Aymman A.

    24 8 2018 18:07

    6       1

    This was truly awesome!!
    I am running out of words to describe how much I liked this interview
    Thank You

  • ET

    Eduard T.

    24 8 2018 17:46

    4       1

    Great Interview!

  • CC

    Christopher C.

    24 8 2018 17:41

    6       1

    If you don't like this I am not sure I can see my way clear to not thinking you don't like the non-partisan, merit and solution based truth.

  • MC

    Minum C.

    24 8 2018 16:31

    4       1

    This was awesome.

  • EL

    Elizabeth L.

    24 8 2018 15:29

    16       1

    I want to echo Brian's comment, Thank you Harald for your service, and thank you for spending time with RealVision viewers. We are grateful.

  • YL

    Young L.

    24 8 2018 15:17

    3       3

    Thank you. That was great interview.
    Great job Brian. You are the best interviewer on RV.
    Mr. Malmgren should be every quarter for updates.

  • PD

    Peter D.

    24 8 2018 14:25

    22       2

    This is what we pay for at RV. Excellent counter-intuitive ideas: 1. Xi Xinping is the most powerful man in the world. 2. America has more to lose in a trade war than China. 3. Trump's cabinet is weaker than meets the eye. 4. Foreign branded cars such as the Corolla and Accord have more US content, than US branded cars. 5. But the best part was the last 7 minutes when he discusses the coming "inevitable" financial crisis, which he compares with the last one which was "short!'

  • PU

    Peter U.

    24 8 2018 13:18

    7       2

    Nice interview Brian.

  • PU

    Peter U.

    24 8 2018 13:09

    4       16

    Harald "full of hubris" Malmgren??

  • PU

    Peter U.

    24 8 2018 13:06

    10       10

    sounds like Harald has a bit of an ax to grind on Trump's trade team.

  • VS

    Vaibhav S.

    24 8 2018 12:43

    7       1

    This was a fun big picture view