Biotech Advances Push Boundaries

Featuring Stephen Diggle

Steve Diggle, CEO & Founder of Vulpes Investment Management, returns to Real Vision, taking the baton from Hugh Hendry to discuss the real opportunities available in the German real estate market. Steve also explains why he believes biotech to be the greatest human endeavour in the world today, and gives his opinions on Brexit, U.S. politics, and the level of global distress.

Published on
25 April, 2016
Topic
Investment Framework, Housing Market, Europe
Duration
65 minutes
Asset class
Real Estate, Equities
Rating
8

Comments

  • SD

    Stephen D.

    31 8 2017 00:32

    1       0

    Robert H. It's an historic day today with the approval of Novartis (and Oxford Biomedica's) CAR-T treatment for ALL by the FDA. To date during this trial no-one has died from cytokine release syndrome. Juno clealry had problems and they may have stemmed from their use of C28 co-stimularory domain. Juno has now switched to a 41bb construct, as Novartis have used from the start. The FDA clearly feel that the cytokine storm IS managable. We shall just have to disagree on this. But I expect we agree on a lot of other things, Dendritic treatments have enormous promise and intellectually are very appealing as a cancer treatment. Someone will hopefully crack how to make them work in practise but it's been a tough area for investors to date.

  • RH

    Robert H.

    27 8 2017 13:41

    0       0

    Immunotherapy will be huge, Stephen is 100% correct. Not sure why he breaks it down into 3 categories, checkpoint inhibitors and CarT are both immunotherapes too, but no matter. But he's wrong in saying the side effects with CarT treatments are manageable, the are not. People have died from cytokinetic storms in trials by Juno and Kite but both companies have very slick PR and the FDA seems very lenient with them so the news is having a limited effect on their share prices. And while response rates have been staggering for blood cancers it does not work for solid tumours, the side effects are way too sever. As things stand now CarT is nowhere in treating solid tumours. But cancer vaccines using dendritic cells are having great success and with no side effects. Intuitively this makes sense as dendritic cells are one step earlier than working with T cells. The dendritic cell is a bit like the stem cell for the immune system. When activated they call in the T and B cells to do the heavy lifting and so they only call in those that are needed, whereas activating T cells can, and does, cause overload (cytokinetic storm) and the body sometimes kills itself. It's apparently far worse than dying from cancer.
    Currently the view is that a combination of a vaccine (be that CarT or dendritic cell) and a checkpoint inhibitor will be the cure for many cancers. CarT maybe the first to get FDA approval but in blood cancers only, it does not work for solid tumours. For solid tumours, a USD110bn market, dendritic cells vaccines are way out in front, and few investors are aware.

  • SD

    Stephen D.

    26 10 2016 05:28

    3       0

    John F, I'm inclined to disagree with you. We own UK biotechs which are really very cheap versus US ones. Of course one could always have finessed timing better, and that's true for us too. But with the exceprion of a very few areas of tech I can't see anything beating biotech for growth in this or the next business cycle mainly because the scientific know how is breaking into mainstream medicine.

  • JF

    John F.

    17 10 2016 04:32

    0       0

    Regarding your investment in Biotech, had you made your sizable investment using the timing of sector rotation, you could have purchased the equities at a significantly lower price. As we leave this business cycle, biotech values decline. At the start of the new business cycle, biotech will not be in the forefront group.

  • JF

    John F.

    17 10 2016 04:25

    1       0

    Another controlling factor of German real estate is the penalty tax at the time of sale which operates on a 10-year declining scale. This law was implemented to discourage speculation and to encourage Germans to hold for at least 10 years.

  • SD

    Stephen D.

    6 9 2016 05:06

    1       0

    Tyler B, where we are seeing the sort of yields I refer to, 6-10% are in residenttial blocks in most towns except the 'hottest' locations in the inner cities like Munich, Berlin and Hamburg. In the centre of those cities yields are more like 3-4%, which isn't bad but we like the yields in the less sexy towns. We are somewhat wary of owning the lowest tier of property, eastern german communist era blocks where unemployment might be quite high. The yields on those, if tenanted are the highest of all but come with some risks. Other than that, the broad swathe of property blocks look attractive.

  • DS

    David S.

    30 7 2016 23:19

    1       0

    I have watched three times. Excellent interview. Thanks

  • TB

    Tyler B.

    14 6 2016 03:06

    0       0

    which sounds less likely in Germany*

  • TB

    Tyler B.

    14 6 2016 03:05

    0       0

    Stephen, very thought-provoking interview. What class are the apartments you are acquiring for 6-10% cap rates? And are these primary, secondary or tertiary markets? And lastly how do you think these returns compare to comparable class and markets in the US? Regardless, a 10% unlevered return with low volatility is very compelling. In the US, you run the risk of acquiring at 4-6% and cap rates widening, which doesn’t sounds less likely in Germany.

  • OA

    Orhan A.

    5 6 2016 18:10

    0       0

    As a student of finance who migrated from the Netherlands to Germany I found this interview very relevant and essential. Thank you for such a great interview!

  • sw

    shaun w.

    3 6 2016 05:02

    0       0

    Hi Stephen, are there any German REITS or listed investments that you recommend for individuals who want exposure to the German property sector.

  • MM

    Mark M.

    20 5 2016 23:52

    0       0

    Thanks Stephen..

  • SD

    Stephen D.

    18 5 2016 01:25

    1       0

    Mark, broker counterparty risk is a hugely overlooked area. Look at their credt rating or where their bonds trade, see if there is a CDS price. When Lehman went bust we made money, net, thru the CDS.

  • DM

    Dennis M.

    17 5 2016 19:36

    0       0

    This is among the top five interviews I have watched on RV. I could listen to Stephen all day. Very bright guy!

  • MM

    Mark M.

    17 5 2016 04:33

    1       0

    Stephen, from a traders perspective, how do you evaluate counterparty risk with a broker?

  • DP

    Daniel P.

    13 5 2016 16:25

    0       0

    Thanks Stephen, let's certainly hope so!

  • SD

    Stephen D.

    13 5 2016 01:23

    1       0

    Daniel, I'd also say that hopefully the advances we are talking about in biotechnology will DELAY the day when we are in such porr condition we need Nursing Care. Longer life AND better health.

  • SD

    Stephen D.

    13 5 2016 01:21

    1       0

    Daniel from a demographics perspective nursing homes are a good play, but i've struggled to find ones which can deliver good margins and excellent service. too many are hust mediocre.

  • DP

    Daniel P.

    12 5 2016 21:03

    0       0

    Stephen thanks for another great and insightful interview. I share the belief that yes, we will beat these awful diseases and live far longer lives. Does a Nursing home REIT come into play?

  • SD

    Stephen D.

    11 5 2016 04:03

    1       0

    Yes Tay, I ALWAYS read the comments, there are a lot of smart, independent minds engaged with this TV Channel. Even the crazy ones are worth listening to!

  • SD

    Stephen D.

    11 5 2016 04:00

    0       0

    Coxey, we don't know how Euro dismantling would work because there are no documents on it. The EC stance is it's impossible! I think central banks in Euro countries have secret plans though.

  • SD

    Stephen D.

    11 5 2016 03:58

    0       0

    Coxey, the biggest problem with brexit vol is how well the market has priced it in. It's come down a bit now the bookies have Brexit at 3-1, but it is expensive to won. Unlike USA election.

  • TJ

    Tay J.

    9 5 2016 23:50

    0       0

    Smart Guy! All his strikingly original observations rung true EXCEPT his quip that the comments were always worth reading. That can't be right.?!

  • AC

    Andrew C.

    7 5 2016 09:06

    0       0

    also, If EURO is dismantled, how long before DM and other currencies actually are up, running and “stable” (properly valued?)

  • AC

    Andrew C.

    7 5 2016 09:05

    0       0

    Stephen; excellent, thanks. Love the vol trade on the US election. Muddle thru seems likely, but what about vol in Eur if Brexit? How long for things to work their through and stabilise?

  • MB

    Matthias B.

    5 5 2016 14:43

    0       0

    tks Steven, that was very well argued; based in Switzerland, our real estate mkt has similarities to GER (lower yield though) but as a private, how can I invest into the German mkt, Reits/funds? tks!

  • NS

    Nico S.

    4 5 2016 18:11

    0       0

    Great idea that no one else is talking about. I generally like the second and third level thinking behind German property...nice work!

  • SD

    Stephen D.

    3 5 2016 01:32

    0       0

    Iyngaran, i don't know the company you refer to. Can you tell us?

  • SD

    Stephen D.

    3 5 2016 01:31

    2       0

    Tom, we cre focuing on orcharding right now, but we also like ranches. China is still the BIG story but we like to own farms where property rights and clean water are avaialble and export to Asia.

  • TF

    Tom F.

    2 5 2016 09:31

    0       0

    Hi Steve, Great interview. Question about you agriculture investments. Any countries & sectors you are seeing good growth still? Is the China middle class the main driver for future growth ?

  • IM

    Iyngaran M.

    30 4 2016 20:33

    1       0

    Steve Thanks for your insights. is uniqure-a Amsterdam based company in your radar? Only gene company with CHMP approval and also has partnership with BMY.

  • DH

    Dale H.

    28 4 2016 21:36

    1       0

    Well done the "bright gold investment fellow who left to start a TV channel". Gd follow up interview, varied topics lots of wisdom and experience to gain from. Am rethinking biotech (safely).

  • BJ

    Bryan J.

    28 4 2016 15:16

    3       0

    Wunderbar interview. As an ex-pat living in Germany I found it very interesting. Also the several comments about Germany as an "orderly" society, I laughed as it's an understatement for sure.

  • CZ

    Catherine Z.

    28 4 2016 09:55

    1       0

    Brilliant! Great interview, thanks for sharing these insights!

  • TS

    Tim S.

    28 4 2016 08:16

    0       0

    Superb. Great, actionable idea on German real estate that's as obvious as hitting the side a barn with a shot gun, yet hardly anyone else is doing it.

  • SD

    Stephen D.

    28 4 2016 02:42

    1       0

    Brian, I think implantable devices are going to be a huge area for the next few years. Both implantable tech and biotech. But they have to be patient friendly, unlike, say deep brain stimulation

  • SD

    Stephen D.

    28 4 2016 02:38

    0       0

    John I don't know Dream Global. I guess if you are not Canadian the CAD$/Euro component is a distraction. But I love the 9% yield!

  • BL

    Brian L.

    27 4 2016 18:39

    1       0

    Stephen-- Great interview. Ive worked in Biotech for 25 years and its a very exciting investment area. Im in implantable devices and am seeing Big Pharma coming in big time. Devices will be Rx's.

  • JM

    John M.

    27 4 2016 04:10

    2       0

    Stephen:
    I am curious if you have any opinions about Dream Global, a Canadian based Reit with investments in Germany/Austria. Might be an option for individual investor?

  • WB

    Wes B.

    27 4 2016 03:18

    2       0

    Great interview. The stable of brilliant minds that RV presents is just awesome. As a option trader that grew up on the floors of Chicago I really love how the mind of a derivatives trader works.

  • SD

    Stephen D.

    27 4 2016 00:34

    4       0

    Vincent, I'm not saying a rapid descent into depression and unrest is impossible; it's just not our base case. Mediocre muddle through, whilst not great, seems more likely for now.

  • SD

    Stephen D.

    27 4 2016 00:31

    7       0

    Chasen, demographics in Germany are really bad, and that's bad for property prices long term. The attempts to change that quickly- by mass immigration are very problematic socially. I worry about it

  • SB

    Stephen B.

    26 4 2016 18:57

    3       0

    Great mind. Couldn't ask for more.

  • VP

    Vincent P.

    26 4 2016 14:52

    1       1

    Meh! Not terrible but how can he say nothing catastrophic can occur and then go on to infer there's no way of knowing how a negative interest rate environment will resolve itself? What did I miss?

  • FS

    Fred S.

    26 4 2016 13:48

    4       1

    Love that Grant is a fan of Nigel Farage. I am an American, but also a fan of Mr. Farage and Daniel Hannan. Can we trade Trump and Sanders for them? We'll throw in the whole lot of U.S. pols!!

  • CN

    Chasen N.

    26 4 2016 04:32

    0       0

    Stephen I believe you provide an excellent case for investing in German real estate. With that said, what is the single best argument against your thesis? Thanks!

  • MC

    Michael C.

    26 4 2016 03:08

    0       0

    Thanks Stephen for the reply. Great interview.

  • SD

    Stephen D.

    26 4 2016 02:35

    4       0

    Michael I would also add that Germany set its FX rate v low when it entered the Euro. That leads to a huge EU BoP surplus for Germany which would also push the DM higher if the Euro was to break up.

  • SD

    Stephen D.

    26 4 2016 02:34

    5       0

    Michael, Germany is a successful economy. Many economies in Europe- France especially are not. Were the Euro to break up tghe DM would have to rise and the Franc, Lira, Peseta would fall to rebalalnce

  • SD

    Stephen D.

    26 4 2016 02:32

    3       0

    Kieran, as I mentioned immunotherapy is an area where we see great promise that is starting to shoe results, initially in both skin and blood cancers; The American Cancer Soc ite is good on the area

  • MC

    Michael C.

    26 4 2016 02:21

    1       0

    Hi Stephen, what are the reasons behind the flock to deustche mark / german assets in the case of a breakup of the Eurozone?

  • KC

    Klendathu C.

    26 4 2016 01:24

    0       0

    Hi Steve,

    You specifically mentioned some cancer treatments that show promise. Are there any other specific areas of biotech that you are looking into?

    Thanks,
    Kieran

  • SD

    Stephen D.

    26 4 2016 00:35

    39       0

    Steve Diiggle here, thanks for taking the time to watch this. If there are any specific questions I'm happy to try to field them. Otherwise thanks for the comments. All are useful.

  • WM

    William M.

    25 4 2016 19:26

    8       0

    This guy is awesome. Love hearing his views.

  • CC

    Christopher C.

    25 4 2016 17:43

    2       1

    "Wake up and smell the coffee" when I logged in this morning. Trump and Sanders are just an appetizer. And you are "the establishment" mate.

  • CC

    Christopher C.

    25 4 2016 17:43

    1       0

    for people umm... to be the average guy in places to make a living. I think it is almost impossible for him to be saving for his retirement" <-- That IS a catastrophe for most. The screen flashed,

  • CC

    Christopher C.

    25 4 2016 17:42

    1       1

    The following is not meant as an offense or attack. Just an observation. 5:39 "I (hedge fund manger) don't think it as bad as all that... I don't see catastrophe." 5:08 "I think it is very hard

  • PH

    Philip H.

    25 4 2016 17:35

    2       0

    Love the barbell strategy Digs. It makes huge amounts of sense as the middle ground is very crowded and very confused.

  • KC

    Klendathu C.

    25 4 2016 15:34

    4       0

    Really enjoy the thoughts on Biotech. It's nice confirmation for me, that I am on the right track. A fantastic interview over all. Great questions Grant!

  • KC

    Klendathu C.

    25 4 2016 15:13

    5       1

    Thus Germany's real estate is dependent on the continuity of the Euro/EU. A move back to the Deutschemark would be incredibly deflationary as workers will be forced to take lower pay to remain compet

  • RA

    Ricardo A.

    25 4 2016 15:11

    1       5

    German being the most war prone country in the world .. may explain why prices have been historically so low

  • KC

    Klendathu C.

    25 4 2016 15:10

    9       3

    Germany's real estate has very interesting dynamics. The health of the economy is tied to the use of a weak currency. Exports make up over 50% of GDP. A strong currency would cripple their economy.