Building an Investment Thesis – Kyle Bass

Featuring Kyle Bass

In what has fast become a Real Vision TV favorite, Kyle Bass, founder and CIO of Hayman Capital Management LP, shares his opinions on the importance of position-sizing and explains why it’s so crucial to have conviction behind an investment thesis. Kyle discusses the explosive credit growth in China and the sheer scale of asset liability mismatches, as well as sharing his thoughts on gold and Japan.

Published on
1 July, 2016
Topic
Monetary policy, Macro, China
Duration
63 minutes
Asset class
Equities, Bonds/Rates/Credit, Currencies
Rating
71

Comments

  • VS

    Valentin S.

    12 5 2018 03:29

    4       1

    "Next two years it's happening." <-- nope.

  • AF

    Aidan F.

    27 4 2018 12:05

    0       0

    scary insight. scary topics. Great interview, best interview I've seen

  • CM

    Chris M.

    31 3 2018 12:22

    0       0

    Some of Kyle Bass's previous comments on Japan

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/kyle-bass-destroys-ponzi-prone-debt-sustainability-arguments-status-quoand-why-germany-cant-sav

    the direct link to the video is here:
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?&v=-quUyId2WZ0
    ...
    "That is how spring-loaded this debt scenario is. When your debts get to become many multiples of your revenue, any slight movement in the cost of your debt causes an enormous crisis right away. Japan is the worst on-balance sheet sovereign in the world. That is indisputable. What's disputable is the, are the qualitative points that people refer to that enables Japan or might enable Japan to keep, kind of maintain the state of homeostasis they're in. Ah, um, it is the most convex, spring-loaded scenario that I've ever even read about in economic history."
    ...

  • CM

    Chris M.

    31 3 2018 04:04

    3       1

    Ed Thorpe and Claude Shannon worked out some of the fundamental theory of position sizing in both casinos and financial markets and published it. Druckenmiller suggested to Soros that they go all in on the pound bet, thinking that Soros might find it too aggressive. Soros said, "No, we bet twice our capital."

    https://25iq.com/2017/07/22/a-dozen-lessons-on-investing-from-ed-thorp/

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    Shannon's strengths are quite similar to Feynman. Mathematical rigor with good connections to the real world. A knack for getting at the essence of the problem.

    these are worth the penny each, even after shipping costs

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  • PJ

    Paul J.

    21 9 2017 22:27

    1       0

    Kyle is my hero analyst such brillliant thinking and so honest. Why don't the central banks take his ideas and make a better world for all of us? Paul Jindra

  • gh

    g h.

    15 9 2017 21:09

    1       0

    Listening to Bass is like drinking financial IQ RED BULL. Brilliant mind packaged in a thoughtful human container.

  • PC

    Pedro C.

    28 8 2017 23:36

    1       0

    So good!!

  • js

    j s.

    1 7 2017 17:45

    1       0

    Hasn't Bass lost money on this trade already? It's been a year — the Chinese can surely drag this out for many more years, no?

  • PC

    Peter C.

    3 6 2017 07:14

    5       0

    Amazed still after a 2nd viewing. Get Kyle back & ask him for his reflection on the Chinese Yuan now.

  • GZ

    Gabriel Z.

    29 5 2017 19:57

    2       0

    glad to be the 2000th like

  • CM

    Cory M.

    28 5 2017 06:02

    3       0

    My mind continues to blow up at Kyle's insights here! I can't believe I waited so long to pull the trigger on the subscription here. I could watch this interview every day for a week and not get everything out of it!

  • SW

    Sebastian W.

    5 5 2017 20:06

    1       0

    Amazing interview !

  • HJ

    Harry J.

    20 4 2017 14:05

    4       0

    I've watched this several times. It's wonderful but it's time to bring Kyle back! Update would be very interesting to say the least.
    How about a three way discussion. Between Grant, Kyle And Stan?

  • MC

    Michael C.

    31 3 2017 22:21

    1       0

    First class!

  • JH

    Jesse H.

    17 2 2017 19:08

    1       0

    Thoroughly enjoyed this interview. Fantastic and very enlightening.

  • MS

    Matt S.

    3 2 2017 00:10

    0       0

    Kyle mentioned someone called Wanker Sean - did I hear that right?

  • KC

    Kevin C.

    16 9 2016 17:49

    2       0

    In the video, it looks like there is a Black Bear behind Grant.
    . . . is that meant to be a 'Bear Market' forecast ?

  • SO

    Steve O.

    9 9 2016 20:53

    0       0

    So profound but scary
    Steve

  • JL

    Jordan L.

    14 8 2016 01:06

    12       0

    This is absolutely incredible. The best Kyle Bass I've ever seen. The "out of body experience" hearing the central banker say "QE only works when you're the only one doing it." is incredible insight.

  • PC

    Peter C.

    19 7 2016 03:14

    9       0

    Great interview. Kyle is really smart & really humble. Grant did a fantastic interviewer job. A big frustration of mine is when the interviewer (eg CNBC on Dalio) dominates and cuts-off the interviewee from getting out his points.

    Kyle makes great points on new paradigms. For example, negative rates and how this will play out (and ideally, like Kyle did for China, we predict the sequence of events and the likely risks & opportunities).

  • MN

    Mark N.

    16 7 2016 09:33

    8       0

    Would love to get my hands on that PowerPoint presentation on how the banking system and credit systems work. This is genius, having access to these guys, thanks so much. X

  • RM

    Rainer M.

    16 7 2016 08:37

    0       0

    Great interview !

  • M.

    Milton ..

    11 7 2016 15:09

    8       1

    Transcript available here: https://we.tl/sHew4e8F94

  • MA

    Mohammed A.

    11 7 2016 05:22

    1       0

    Any recommended reading on macro analysis from a practitioner point of view

  • GW

    Graham W.

    11 7 2016 04:23

    2       0

    Very powerful.

  • PP

    Preston P.

    10 7 2016 20:47

    0       0

    Great job Grant!

  • JA

    Joseph A.

    9 7 2016 09:56

    10       0

    With reference to the discussion about China wanting to devalue on their own terms, I wonder if Kyle and a lot of commentators in the West have really factored in the cultural differences with regards to face saving and how that would affect what really happens in China with regards to recap of banks and devaluation there compared to how things played out elsewhere in the western world. The Chinese may very well do something unexpected even though Kyle assumes that no matter how different their financial engines, policies and laws are compared to the west, how they think about dealing with that may not be exactly as he says has to happen. I am in overall agreement with the logic of a downturn and devaluation and also with his last statement about how it will be on their terms which I think partially touches on my point but it would be an interesting thing to dive into further which would be the mechanics that would develop as a result of the cultural differences and how that would affect the way this scenario actually plays out.

  • DJ

    Dimitri J.

    7 7 2016 18:09

    0       0

    Awesome!

  • JS

    Jon S.

    7 7 2016 13:05

    1       0

    One of the best interviews yet. Excellent!
    Keep up the brilliant content.

  • TB

    Tim B.

    7 7 2016 00:49

    0       0

    Pure gold.

  • JH

    Joseph H.

    7 7 2016 00:47

    2       0

    I have great respect for Kyle but I also have great respect for those PM's that can consistently eke out 8%-10% returns, please provide their names. Every large pool of capital in the world would like their names as well.

  • MH

    Mohammed H.

    6 7 2016 02:48

    8       0

    Intellectually rewarding interview! Please interview Stanley Druckenmiller and Jim Chanos if at all possible

  • MD

    Marian D.

    5 7 2016 19:30

    4       0

    Any other video on RVTV with more than 1150 thumbs up vote?
    Excellent interview, Grant!

  • RC

    Richard C.

    5 7 2016 10:16

    0       0

    Great Interview. Really find the transcript helpful. Hope this becomes standard.

  • KH

    Kevin H.

    5 7 2016 06:56

    2       0

    Quite a number of insights to be gleaned from this excellent interview. Appreciate the transcript too. Very helpful. Hope it becomes a permanent feature for all interviews. Kudos to RV for acting on feedbacks in making an already excellent RV experience even better for its audience.

  • SC

    Stephen C.

    5 7 2016 02:20

    1       0

    Thank you Grant and Kyle. Excellent interview. For the RVTV team, the question from a number of other viewers resonates ... What can we as the small investor do? I've enjoyed getting a little more of this steer in some of the more recent interviews and would appreciate that trend continuing.
    Cheers
    Chaps

  • JB

    Joe B.

    4 7 2016 23:11

    5       0

    No short sellers on Forbes? Is he forgetting Soros?

  • CC

    Charles C.

    4 7 2016 17:54

    4       0

    Great interview - one of the all time Real Vision bests. So many important points, but the most interesting to me were all the conversations around investor psychology and behavior. Thanks to Kyle for being so transparent and giving such clear explanations.

  • EB

    ELIZABETH B.

    4 7 2016 14:10

    21       0

    The facts concerning China's situation is only given as Kyle's opinion in this interview. For those of us who want to know the reasons behind this opinion, China's negative situation is well presented by Richard Duncan's "Macro Watch" at richardduncaneconomics.com. He presents a 4 part series on China's Economic Crisis in power point.

    In addition, I found the 48 page May 2016 report, "Restructuring China, Inc.", by Societe Generale analyst, Yao Wei, China economist, also enlightening. He said losses in the banking system could reach $1.2 Trillion.

    Finally, besides gold held outside the system, what else should an investor hold. Not all of us are inclined to by apartment buildings and become landlords.

    Merci for the interview. Bravo.

  • AB

    ARIEL B.

    4 7 2016 09:38

    2       1

    Great interview. I think Gold and US treasuries are the best play on China. Playing the currency is expensive. The Chinese, as Bass says, want to devalue on their terms. US treasuries however will perform as the debt overhang and aging demographics will keep a lid on yields. An accident in China will be another reason for yields to move lower and it's positive carry.

  • DF

    Dave F.

    4 7 2016 02:41

    1       0

    Brilliant

  • CC

    CHRISTOPHER C.

    4 7 2016 00:10

    4       0

    It's already started. A little bit like watching a slow motion train wreck. Kyle presents very well; clearly and with no histrionics. This is one of the better interviews on RV in the past year.

  • PW

    Phil W.

    3 7 2016 23:43

    2       0

    Great stuff!!! Grant time to get Simon Hunt back for an interview.

  • SL

    Steven L.

    3 7 2016 21:02

    25       0

    I'll listen to this interview at least two more times. I do have to say that I'm left with the same question after watching most of the RVTV content and that is "what does the small investor do?" What investment instruments are there to own a share of a physical asset. I understand gold but what else?

  • SB

    Stewart B.

    3 7 2016 17:53

    4       0

    Genius! Kyle too of course... Two thoughts (1) I would have liked to have heard what instruments he is shorting the Yuan with. Because rates are higher in China, it is an expensive short with rolling futures. (2) On Japan, I think everyone is missing a trick. Consider QQE. I have asked central bankers, 'If it is so good for the economy, why won't you let me do it?' I'll print money, buy bonds, REITS and equities then repo them to banks. I'm confident that the biggest beneficiary of QQE and QE are the central banks themselves who acquire yielding assets at zero cost base. So on Japan, consider a scenario where the magnitude of QQE is much much larger than their fiscal deficit. Eventually, the sum of central bank assets less government liabilities has shrunk to a maintainable level. This is a very clever slight of hand. Who looses? Consumers who haven't benefited from deflation and asset holders who bought in before the bubble bursts. Oh, and anyone who bought JGBs before inflation comes ;) I want to hear more from Kyle!

  • TS

    Thomas S.

    3 7 2016 15:31

    1       0

    Would be curious to know who Bass and also RV viewers here respect on the sell side re China. China is just so important, no excuse not to follow it.

  • NN

    No N.

    3 7 2016 07:31

    2       2

    Perhaps Japan is just going to keep driving rates lower until the world is finally ready to embrace the amazing technology which hasn't yet made it to world markets. Both presenters mentioned one possible technology "cold fusion". It's only a matter of delaying until that point. Once this next round of technology is released it will be much easier for sovereigns to properly manage their debt. They are all just playing a waiting game until the control grid and global governance is sufficiently in place to manage these technological breakthroughs. I'de be interested to know how if at all Kyle is hedging for such a technological/energy Renaissance. I don't see revolutionary new tech being released for another 10-15 years so perhaps he's just assuming they will crash all the sovereigns first so they can get a good buy in before the next big boom period.

  • JG

    Joseph G.

    3 7 2016 02:44

    2       0

    Agree with the other comments. Great interview, extremely thoughtful and insightful. The thought of solving the sovereign debt issue by owning all the debt with negative rates certainly resonates, but the law of unintended consequences always rears its head when you don't expect it!

  • NS

    Noelle S.

    3 7 2016 02:26

    0       0

    Rebroadcast this one in Chinese, precipitate the devaluation, or whatever the Chinese will do

  • DS

    David S.

    3 7 2016 01:04

    0       0

    With negative interest rates in the picture, is the percentage point differential between central banks interest rates more important than a zero point bogie?

  • NV

    Nicola V.

    2 7 2016 22:35

    16       0

    Please get Druckenmiller!!!

  • DS

    David S.

    2 7 2016 21:49

    0       0

    Excellent. Thanks. One small point. After many self-inflicted financial crises worldwide, the central bankers were called in to late to extract the financial system out of its rabbit hole. With to much QE and now negative rates, CB have jumped down more rabbit holes themselves. How many rabbit holes are still ahead? Regardless, The end will not be pretty. Keep some powder dry.

  • LP

    Lynn P.

    2 7 2016 18:34

    3       0

    For those of us that require income, we "have" to have some equity exposure, albeit in bond surrogates. The alternative is to live off of "savings", of which presumably Bass and Drunkenmiller have ample. For the retiree with (say) between $1 million - $2 million in assets, is a reasonable strategy to keep 30 % - 60% in cash? Given the convexity in bonds that Bass described, I don't see a large bond allocation as rational.

  • GG

    George G.

    2 7 2016 17:46

    15       0

    RV is My third best investment (1) Apple at $24- (2) Bitcoin at 85 and (3)Realvision at KB's first interview.

  • RM

    Richard M.

    2 7 2016 15:21

    2       0

    Oops - I forgot to add one of the absolutely nicest guys of all - Mark Hart (apologies Mark)!

  • RM

    Richard M.

    2 7 2016 14:59

    8       1

    Great interview - as of course everybody has already commented on! But I think one of the absolute best things about RVTV and these interviews is how it shows some of the most brilliant minds in finance (Kyle, Pippa, Raoul (and of course Grant too!)) are such "real" people - folks that you would genuinely like to sit down and have a beer with or just hang out with because they are so pleasant (and smart)!

  • AB

    Alain B.

    2 7 2016 14:05

    4       0

    Another little gem: "In being more public with your views also invites a new level of scrutiny and discourse. And that discourse only makes you better at what you do."

  • KC

    Klendathu C.

    2 7 2016 13:24

    32       0

    Anyone else really want to see that 100 page presentation on China's banking system?

  • RF

    Raoul F.

    2 7 2016 13:09

    6       0

    Amazing! The Bass/Burbank videos are quite comfortably the best on RV.

  • SD

    Sebastien D.

    2 7 2016 12:55

    1       0

    Invaluable! If Kyle had a fan club I'd run to get a member card.

  • fc

    frank c.

    2 7 2016 12:52

    1       0

    what goes up must come down and what goes down must come up! timing is everything, eventually it will al readjust. Staying-power is everything.
    Wonderfull interview, I love RVTV!!!

  • GS

    Gordon S.

    2 7 2016 08:24

    4       0

    No Central bank Edward S. Just asking questions, seeking answers and trying to be positive about all this. I was very pessimistic about central banking for a long while (regular ZH reader) but so far the world did not end and maybe it won't after all either. Since I got down voted by so many, I would love some feedback but I get it that this is not a forum, so again asking for some kind of feature like that RV please?

  • ES

    Edward S.

    2 7 2016 06:52

    2       0

    Also, where is this Shad Rowe interview?

  • ES

    Edward S.

    2 7 2016 06:47

    1       0

    Just want to ask, Gordon S... What central bank do you work for?

  • ES

    Edward S.

    2 7 2016 06:35

    5       0

    Regarding the 'possible' nefarious BOJ motives... it was like preaching to the choir. I've always thought the same thing.... and going beyond that, it's likely that could be the path of every CB - to 'fix' their debt problems by transferring the liabilities via negative rates to everyone but the govt. Even with positive nominal rates, but negative real rates, this is possible. The bonus round comes from asset price inflation and the resulting inflated tax receipts to the govt. Every bit of inflation results in increased taxes - both directly and indirectly (thru the natural tax of inflation). It's theoretically possible for a farm owner, ie a producer of food, to be forced to sell the business because they cannot afford food and basic items - due to increased operating costs, increased property tax, and so on. It's so blatant yet so outlandish that it's almost taboo to bring it up. Such a depressing global printing feedback loop, yet it seems that it's the only feasible solution to a massive sov debt 'problem'. This doesn't end with everyone "winning". Great video, have a nice day everyone.

  • NS

    Nathan S.

    2 7 2016 05:27

    3       1

    Kulbir J - this is along the lines of what Hugh Hendry is saying. So the question Kyle might ask you is, how then do they prevent the RMB devaluing against the USD?

    Excellent discussion on so many levels, thanks Grant & Kyle.

  • KJ

    Kulbir J.

    2 7 2016 05:08

    6       8

    I have great respect for Kyle Bass but he is wrong on China. There are a lot of doomsday predictors on China.

    China does not operate like the Western world. The banks are state owned. The government regularly steps into the Stock Market. Just remember what happened a while back when it ordered firms to buy stocks. Those who were suspected of short selling 'disappeared' for a few days. Even China's Warren Buffet, Guo Guangchang was detained.

    The Chinese government values social obedience over anything else. Any 'doomday' would see people on the streets and their authority challenged. Something which they will not allow to happen. They would much rather distract their citizens on their slowing economy by starting a war with a small nation over the South China Sea that would easily be defeated.

    Yes a slowdown in the Chinese Economy is inevitable, but it won't lead to what Kyle Bass is saying.

  • TR

    Thomas R.

    2 7 2016 02:25

    6       1

    1st off - Great Interiew. I may embarrass myself here – but on the final point of Japan’s entire Bond offering slate going negative and with the Bank of Japan owning all the debt – hasn’t the impact of printed money already been realized in the market – it was realized when the purchased the bonds - therefore whatever inflation that would happen from printed money – from a Japanese perspective, hasn’t it already happened – and isn’t the simple “Accounting Entry” of the Bank of Japan wiping out the entire bond obligations it owes itself – actually a very real and plausible outcome. Poof – the debt is gone and all the impact of printed money has long been out in the market – it literally is a “non-event Accounting entry”. Tom Rae

  • TB

    Tyler B.

    2 7 2016 02:07

    3       0

    I could listen to you two for hours. Great Job!

  • TS

    Thomas S.

    2 7 2016 02:01

    4       0

    Great interview. Love the thought process and reasoning. Always remember how really smart investors thought Michael Burry had gone off the deep end. I wonder what the world would look like if we moved away from NIRP to normalized rates. My only conclusion is that every government in the world would be insolvent. Doubt they could even pay interest. So there can only be lower and lower rates, more QE and helicopter money. Will stocks go up when this happens or just tread water? It will take a complete political crisis likely caused by taxing cash to end it all, default and start over. Crazy I know.

  • DH

    Dale H.

    2 7 2016 01:54

    7       0

    An absolutely brilliant interview from Kyle and Grant. Thank you.
    This is a must view - more than once. Great having the chapters by the way. Very interesting China commentary, got me thinking about my research and later timing issues. Regretfully I find that there is only so much a single person can do for their own and their family portfolios - I can only do what I know well; for me there will come a time when some of it needs to be handed over to an excellent fund manager with intelligence and resources in spades.... I agree, the last 10 years have been harder.
    Yes, most want to take an optimistic view and it is good to have RVTV on hand knowing that, over time there will be interviews on new innovations in technology and health... Agree - difficult these days to say for sure if the S&P and others will go higher or not. Crazy is right for all of it!

  • TW

    Todd W.

    2 7 2016 01:02

    0       0

    Excellent interview. Thanks for giving me that insight. Well done!

  • tl

    timothy l.

    2 7 2016 00:44

    1       0

    That was exhilarating! Thanks!

  • GS

    Gordon S.

    1 7 2016 23:34

    8       11

    As always, excellent interview with Kyle Bass, great topics talked about, agreed with lots of logics, BUT, here are a few questions and personal thoughts to challenge his thinking:

    1. (Timestamp -41:42), How on earth will helicopter money, according to Kyle Bass, lead to cost push inflation instead of demand pull inflation? Imagine the central bank buying 200 million barrel of oil, isn’t that pure demand pull inflation?

    2. The China story makes a lot of sense, but, as Kyle mentioned, printing money to devalue only works unilaterally. What if the world central banks decide to unleash a coordinated money printing basooka (2.0 like 10X 08)? Which was maybe agreed onto in March behind closed doors with some kind of Shanghai Accords and what Draghi announced on Monday following Brexit? Again my theory is that deflation is a central bankers dream and a free card to print money, so why let such a nice opportunity go to waste?

    3. What is Kyle’s view on Japan now, did he give up? I don’t remember if he was long or short JGBs but owning 40Y JGBs in the past month made an absolut killing, up like 60% in JPY terms and up like 80% in USD terms? That is insane. JPY doesn’t seem to depreciate that much either at the moment? (Not insinuating he was wrong on “his bet” or anything, just wondering aloud.)

    4. I find this confiscation theory dodgy, maybe not concerning gold where the risk is definitely real, but especially concerning stocks / equity. Because the moment you try to confiscate that, the value goes to zero very fast. Who are you going to sell that 60% share of Facebook you just took from Mark Zuckerberg to? Another example is a socialist country expropriating foreign companies. Doesn’t get you very far. The furtherest extreme: French Revolution example?

    5. Back to helicopter money. I personally love the idea, especially of course if carried out in the right way. QE was basically socialism for the rich, it did wonders for them. For the rest of the economy? Not so much. Why not try that for the people, wouldn’t it be fair to them? It’s a lot easier than expropriation and in my opinion inflationary (and demand pull inflation, so good inflation?), something central bankers are trying to achieve. About that topic I love that Ted Talk: A Provocative Way To Finance The Fight Against Climate Change by Michael Metcalfe
    http://www.ted.com/talks/michael_metcalfe_a_provocative_way_to_finance_the_fight_against_climate_change . [Btw; next feature requirement: explicit interview wish list on RV? Since QE for the people kind of talk gets more and more attention, for me it would be Michael Metcalfe. And I didn’t know about Ben Bernanke’s pitch. Will we get him one day :P?].

    6. In the mean time, still can’t wait for the next Kyle Bass interview :). Thanks again for the great content RV!

  • KN

    Konstantinos N.

    1 7 2016 23:16

    5       0

    This was really one of the best interviews so far! Well done and keep up the great job RV team!

  • PA

    Paul A.

    1 7 2016 22:34

    1       0

    Thanks guys, this one interview was worth the price of admission..!

  • MT

    MICHAEL T.

    1 7 2016 20:53

    27       0

    I feel like the luckiest guy in the world being able to listen in on conversations like this. Thanks again as always RVTV and of course thanks to Kyle Bass for being so generous with his insights.

  • KD

    Kevin D.

    1 7 2016 20:26

    9       1

    Wish you dug in to the position sizing question re: RMB short, and the issue of conviction vs sizing (risk management). Bass says he has 100% conviction on it - and I agree with him on that - but timing is the critical question, and that is where sizing comes in. He has said 80% of his positions are RMB short - for a pure SPV that is fine, but for a multi strat fund? Grant's interviews are awesome, but would have liked to see you put him on the spot there and have him address this

  • OM

    Omar M.

    1 7 2016 20:06

    1       0

    Great interview.. Thanks Grant and RV! Keep up the great work ;-)

  • CM

    Corentin M.

    1 7 2016 19:17

    3       0

    Brilliant interview, great format and relevance in the question asked.

  • HJ

    Harry J.

    1 7 2016 19:17

    12       0

    I be been in the investment business for 40 years and never heard information as relevant and so well presented! Thank you
    Jim Howard

  • SS

    Sam S.

    1 7 2016 18:55

    3       0

    I love it when the brightest people admit they got the timing wrong. Helps all us dummies feel a little better. Kyle is incredible and I'm a huge fan. Saw the hot stuff in the kitchen---what's for dinner? Thank you Kyle & Grant. Kyle----do you still have all those nickles? I do but not sure I should?

  • KK

    Karl K.

    1 7 2016 18:45

    104       2

    Can you get Druckenmiller?

  • cg

    christian g.

    1 7 2016 18:31

    4       0

    When you listen to Kyle you understand that it s not about money, it s trying to understand how it works ( obviously it s so complex to understand but it s all about synthesis and he s brilliant )

  • ET

    Ed T.

    1 7 2016 18:23

    3       0

    An outstanding interview/discussion that covers the waterfront of current economic and financial issues. I loved the part about both the emotional and financial cost of thinking outside the box and how most people are just not wired to do it. And also how seldom people take the time to do the in depth research required to really get to the bottom of what's happening. Platitudes are so much easier and more comfortable. But it is also what eventually can create incredible investment opportunities. Worth the price of admission many times over. Gracias mucho!

  • NR

    Nuno R.

    1 7 2016 18:22

    3       0

    Kyle B. mentioned he doesn't own US equities, but has his sold out of all his US oil equities? I thought he was very bullish on energy recovery specially amongst North American shale.

  • CD

    Colin D.

    1 7 2016 18:21

    1       0

    Great to hear Kyle's thoughts and another great interview. Keep them coming Grant!!

  • RA

    Robert A.

    1 7 2016 18:14

    18       0

    Clearly one of the best RV ever. I recall the debate between RV Founders, eg., Raoul, Grant and Milton with regard to whether to offer transcripts and I think we just got our answer---that little genius curator Milton will occasionally make the odd one available where appropriate! I got the answer from Kyle to a question I have always been interested in and that is why the heck he goes public occasionally with his views? I always thought perhaps as a $ raising technique? But no, he does it because he WANTS his thesis to be "flaw tested" by the whole world and the smartest people he can find to give him feedback! I said it before---why do many of the really successful ones adopt such a humble non egocentric persona?

  • TH

    Timo H.

    1 7 2016 17:47

    0       0

    A decent video to wrap up one of the best weeks of RV. Thanks!

  • RK

    Robert K.

    1 7 2016 17:45

    4       0

    This video just paid for my subscription, yet again. Well done.

  • jw

    jackson w.

    1 7 2016 17:27

    3       5

    fucking fantastic

  • SS

    Stewart S.

    1 7 2016 17:08

    5       0

    interesting. that leaves the world with one solution. That is the creation of one international currency, backed by gold. At $10,000 per ounce that would provide the world with enough helicopter money to pay down the world debt.

  • PS

    Patrick S.

    1 7 2016 17:07

    8       0

    Riveting interview with someone who both smart and modest. Keeping ones conviction against the daily market moves is always my struggle. I appreciate that I am not alone. However, I also recognize that being too early is tantamount to being wrong. Thanks Kyle and Grant.

  • ML

    Matthew L.

    1 7 2016 17:03

    13       1

    I don't get it. QE doesn't work but he said if Japan gets its entire yield curve negative the debt becomes sustainable. So QE does work?

  • JG

    John G.

    1 7 2016 17:00

    12       0

    Excellent discussion. Please have Kyle Bass back again soon.

  • JM

    Joseph M.

    1 7 2016 16:44

    20       0

    would love to see that 100 page China powerpoint

  • JG

    Jay G.

    1 7 2016 16:43

    4       0

    Fantastic interview with Kyle Bass -- very informative. Interviews like this are what makes Real Vision TV so valuable.

  • CB

    CHRISTOPHER B.

    1 7 2016 16:37

    14       0

    China appears to be trying to avoid outright devaluation while it devalues incrementally almost every day. Seems to follow that this is extremely negative for Japanese, South Korean, European, and US equities that rely on the Chinese market for earnings, never mind growth.

    But if the Chinese gov't expects to have to devalue dramatically and does not want to bow to foreign pressures, that explains why they have been buying gold by the tonne...(using foreign currencies?) Gold could be their post-devaluation get out of jail card.

    On the behavioral side, a reluctance to accept that bad stuff will happen, in time to actually do anything about it, is probably very deeply ingrained in human psychology. Whether is was falling real estate prices in 2005 or Nazis in the Sudetenland or the big smoking mountain at Pompeii, humans have blinded themselves to extremely ominous signals for a long time. I think that's important because it means you can game it.

    Thank you RealVisionTV for brilliant information and making me think.

  • IJ

    Ian J.

    1 7 2016 16:29

    12       4

    how the fuck did this get a down arrow?

  • JP

    Jeronimo P.

    1 7 2016 16:26

    27       0

    Absolutely fantastic. These are the talks that highlight just how brilliant some of the Realvision talks can be. No filler, nobody talking their book, no pointless macroview - just real content about the "process". Insight or the "application of a view" are where Realvision truly shines and outperforms all competition.

  • GT

    Graham T.

    1 7 2016 15:37

    6       0

    I think the chart of the TLT will look like Gold 1979/1980. The trouble is the most money was made in the shortest time possible right at the end. UK Gilt 2.5% 2065 now up 35% so far this year to yield 1.513%. We must be close.

  • RP

    Robert P.

    1 7 2016 15:08

    6       0

    outstanding. Grant's comment about seeking "smart" not bearish, applies perfectly to Mr. Bass.

  • ML

    Mark L.

    1 7 2016 15:07

    6       0

    A pleasure to watch and listen.

  • GA

    Giedrius A.

    1 7 2016 14:47

    6       0

    It is fascinating to see brilliant minds come together and share their thoughts. How inspiring and beautiful that is to watch. Big thank you

  • AB

    Angie B.

    1 7 2016 14:29

    14       0

    Wow, I can't thank you guys enough for this incredible interview. Probably one of the best interviews I have ever watched with Kyle. He is so fascinatingly intelligent.
    I could listen to his and grants views, all day long....

  • SM

    Spencer M.

    1 7 2016 14:28

    1       0

    Japan has $1trn of debt it can never repay *nor ever fail to repay* (absent war). Why is the logical conclusion collapse rather than communism?

  • BR

    Barbora R.

    1 7 2016 14:15

    22       0

    Brilliant