China Conviction and Capital Flight – Mark Hart

Featuring Mark Hart

In a follow-up to his January interview, Mark Hart, founder of Corriente Advisors, returns to Real Vision to discuss developments in his Yuan devaluation thesis, to expand on which currency pairs interest him in a strengthening dollar scenario, to consider the deflationary forces at work across the globe, and to examine the banks in a Eurozone that has been “structurally created wrong.”

Published on
26 February, 2016
Topic
Structural flows, Investment Framework, Global Investment
Duration
26 minutes
Asset class
Currencies, Cash, Bonds/Rates/Credit
Rating
33

Comments

  • CC

    Christian C.

    6 6 2017 20:21

    1       0

    Clearly this gentleman has proven wrong in China and Europe. Perhaps a refresh of this interview is due?

  • DT

    Dave T.

    3 4 2017 02:15

    1       0

    A very mentally nutritious package. May I have some more please?

  • PB

    Pieter B.

    15 10 2016 20:13

    1       0

    "Europe started as a steal cartel and then turned into something that sounded a lot more humanitarian and inclusive." LOL, as a European citizen I love these sharp comments. Brilliant discussion. I am gonna look at put options on the CNY/CNH around a strike of 8, either via a us broker or saxo. Massive thanks for the ideas and analysis!

  • FT

    Frank T.

    12 3 2016 02:54

    1       0

    I'd like to be their Cayman Island neighbor too. There goes the hood?

  • JE

    Jag E.

    5 3 2016 08:16

    2       0

    I think people playing the miners miss adressing some parts of history like a revaluation with heavy taxation on production following. Both have historic precedent in gold and oil.

  • DM

    Dennis M.

    1 3 2016 19:25

    2       0

    Real Vision is a brilliant idea. I feel I'm back in school with the very best teachers. I have started to bring a notebook to each session as there are so many actionable ideas.

  • RL

    Rick L.

    1 3 2016 15:00

    0       0

    MIND BLOWN. AGAIN.

  • LC

    Liliana C.

    1 3 2016 06:14

    2       0

    Always in awe of Mark and Raoul together! I do Not agree that there's no inflation tho. Necessities such as food, shelter, healthcare and education are skyrocketing. Discretionary retail in deflation.

  • SM

    Stuart M.

    29 2 2016 09:58

    1       0

    Great vid! Would love to see this become a regular feature! :)

  • CH

    Calvin H.

    29 2 2016 00:09

    1       0

    Good interview - thanks. I see a closet Sanders supporter with the 'country management' comment. He wanted to say more, but his simile told it all. Hey no problem, if we find a way to pay for $20T!

  • PD

    Paul D.

    28 2 2016 10:14

    2       0

    Awesome stuff - thats your subscription paid back right there

  • sw

    shaun w.

    28 2 2016 10:07

    3       0

    Awesome. I wonder what Mark thinks of Micheal Pettis's rebuttal to Kyle Bass's letter on Chinese devaluation?

  • HC

    Harry C.

    28 2 2016 07:47

    1       0

    Fantastic.

  • JD

    Jim D.

    27 2 2016 22:06

    1       0

    Just brilliant.

  • AS

    Andrew S.

    27 2 2016 18:07

    5       0

    Thank you for getting him back so quickly and broadening the scope of the conversation. Great, informative interview. Oh, and be sure and get your physical bullion, why wait??

  • MM

    M. M.

    27 2 2016 16:20

    1       0

    there's also etf's short Yuan. E.g. checkout Proshares.

  • SL

    Sandy L.

    27 2 2016 15:28

    2       0

    Visionary, one of the few that recognizes the positive deflationary skew of technology, innovation and the mass disruption factor

  • RM

    Richard M.

    27 2 2016 14:31

    5       0

    Awesome - again!!! Mark is so whip-smart and yet so humble (and the same goes for Raoul)! Really an enjoyable 1/2 hour of absorbing deep and unusual thought. Thanks!!!

  • SS

    Sam S.

    27 2 2016 14:08

    1       0

    Technology bets? Cloud? Equities? Software? Cybersecurity? Any pinpoint ideas? Thanks for all you guy provide!!!

  • SL

    Steven L.

    27 2 2016 04:27

    0       0

    I'm not sure US citizens can buy anything in Iran yet. I too would like to know how the small investor can own Iranian assets. I don't believe the TSE30 is available thru US brokers.

  • CD

    Charles D.

    27 2 2016 04:14

    4       2

    Brilliant...frightening to see how far ahead of CB's these guys are...no wonder the world is in the shit shape it's in....those CB morons are completely behind the wave that these guys are riding.

  • DD

    Derek D.

    27 2 2016 03:14

    1       0

    And I also can’t tell if he’s convinced the Chinese will devalue because he thinks that’s what they want, or because it’s complete consensus in our bizarro world that devaluing is a good thing?

  • DD

    Derek D.

    27 2 2016 03:13

    0       0

    I really appreciate his challenge to my admittedly amateur theses: namely that the US is in terrible shape, and as a retailer I get downright emotional when he says there’s no signs of inflation.More!

  • bs

    bernard s.

    26 2 2016 19:40

    2       0

    how do you express long Iran?

    Also what happens if China gets rid of CNH and HKD, and it all becomes one single deliverable currency?

  • WE

    William E.

    26 2 2016 19:34

    1       0

    I agree that cash brings optionality but as a consultant who has preached "fully invested" for 25 yrs, how do I now get clients to consider holding cash? Even 7-10% looks huge versus policy goal of 0

  • DW

    Daniel W.

    26 2 2016 19:14

    1       0

    What would be your advise to Play the Devaluation of the yuan for average Joe Investor? Trading the FX cross is probably not a wise move in this case?

  • TL

    T L.

    26 2 2016 18:41

    6       1

    At Saxobank one can buy yuan puts = USDCNH calls with a welcome bonus through this link: http://uk.saxomarkets.com/iit-dcf/referral/?RefId=05C34E88-9E1E-40E5-A3DF-3E629C0B96DE&cmpid=GLOBAL-REF-UK

  • RM

    Robert M.

    26 2 2016 17:55

    1       0

    How do we assess how much of the dollar carry trade has unwound?

  • TJ

    Terry J.

    26 2 2016 17:41

    3       0

    Another excellent video packed full of great ideas and invaluable insights.

  • RM

    Robert M.

    26 2 2016 17:39

    4       0

    If China does continue to devalue wouldn't that be bullish for the Dollar and bearish for gold? Just curious being a newbie

  • ML

    Marc L.

    26 2 2016 17:37

    2       0

    so why not shorting the QAR or BHD instead of the SAR?

  • ML

    Marc L.

    26 2 2016 17:21

    5       0

    you can buy 3 different CNY or CNH put options at the SIX (Swiss Exchange) denominated in USD - check the following ISIN: CH0283710884, CH0259488713 or CH0259490883

  • JM

    Joseph M.

    26 2 2016 17:09

    2       0

    can you open up a saxo account being a us citizen? i thought i read somewhere you couldnt...

  • MS

    Michiel S.

    26 2 2016 16:34

    19       7

    Love the way he smiles every now and then!