Complex Issues Emerge in Italian Referendum

Featuring Prof. Valerio Onida, Rodolfo De Benedetti

With Europe’s eyes fixed on Italy’s constitutional reform referendum, we are honored to present two highly distinguished Italian commentators: Professor Valerio Onida and Rodolfo De Benedetti.

Interviewed by Dr. Pippa Malmgren, this special presentation examines the issues that could reshape Europe on December 4, as populist political shockwaves reverberate from both sides of the Atlantic.

Published on
24 November, 2016
Topic
Politics, Fiscal Policy, Europe
Duration
62 minutes
Asset class
Bonds/Rates/Credit, Currencies
Rating
41

Comments

  • JF

    John F.

    4 12 2016 00:12

    0       0

    I would have liked to see a guest who is closer to the gridlock in their government. Otherwise, a very professional presentation.

  • HF

    Hans F.

    3 12 2016 10:23

    2       0

    Few people seem to realise that a YES vote will enable the Five Start Movement (if they win in 2018) to move forward with their agenda much easier than in the case of a NO vote.

    A YES vote alongside the Italicum essentially give the ruling party far more power than today and the prospects of radical change, such as euro exit, will be much higher after a YES vote.

    It is true that the Italian economy cannot be sustained on its current trajectory so change must come, but I believe financial pundits have it all wrong when claiming a NO is the worst possible outcome for financial markets.

  • Sv

    Sid v.

    2 12 2016 19:23

    1       0

    I think this is a great background interview on the Italian situation. These guys helped to understand the wishywashy that is Italy and their elite leadership. Watching these two guys lets us understand Italian leadership. No heroes in Italy.

  • DH

    Dale H.

    2 12 2016 11:54

    0       0

    Thanks for this interview. Well done Pippa with the questions. No one can force a depth of answers that they may want from those questioned if they don't want to provide that depth. But the answers themselves, reveal a lot, in what is not said and what is favoured. I get the impression that these two men are likely to not be representative of key aspects of public opinion and there could well be a bit of a storm if there is a No vote.

  • TS

    Tamara S.

    30 11 2016 22:26

    1       0

    Thank you Pippa.

  • JV

    JP V.

    30 11 2016 09:22

    0       2

    What a shame that this was all about saving the EU institutions that have obviously contributed a lot but only for themselves. All this pro-EU chitchat is much to early and again will be conceived as the "ivory-tower-leftists" that want to press forward their ideas no matter what the people think. Very sad to see an interview like this on your spectacular Real Vision.

  • CT

    Christopher T.

    28 11 2016 21:59

    1       0

    wish it was dubbed so I could listen to this on the go

  • ca

    cyavash a.

    26 11 2016 19:57

    4       0

    The summary at the end really tied it together. My gratitude to RVTV for providing this access.

  • MN

    Marcus N.

    26 11 2016 15:00

    22       0

    I am struck by the comments that dismiss or downvote these two interlaced interviews because they are not 'investible', or they create some cognitive dissonance in RVTV viewers.

    Dr Malmgren worked hard to draw out both interviewees, and both of them were open in expressing their ideas. I suggest that the views they volunteered were instructive precisely because they provoke cognitive dissonance. That's what a good interviewer does.

    My take is that the academic, the judge was focussed on legal process, precedent and constitutional niceties, and has only the fuzziest notions about the economic consequences of the vote, and the investor was focussed solely on reform of the political process inside Italy to goose the countries economic performace.

    Neither of them seemed able to join the dots and think things through in the European political space, or in the wider economic world,

    One result may lead to the collapse of the government in Italy and the rise of an administration prepared to contemplate abandoning the Euro. Another outcome might lead to the impoverishment of the Italian population in some sort of 'Grecian haircut' as their banks are restructured by ECB fiat.

    Either way, there does not appear to be any outcome that allows Italy, ECB, Euro area, or the EU to just 'muddle through'.

    Dr Malmgren's interview brought into sharp focus and exposed to daylight some of the ideas and motivations of actual Italians in an Italian referendum. They may (or not be) misguided, they may (or may not) represent Italian public opinion. They certainly do not seem to consider too widely the larger European, or global consequences of the vote. Perhaps that's appropriate: it's an Italian referendum about Italy's constitution.

    So, in conclusion, well done Pippa, thank you - I feel that I now have some small insight into the mindset of the Italian nomenclatura. My judgement is that they will be Trumped. We will see. Time will tell.

  • MT

    Mark T.

    26 11 2016 14:17

    7       0

    A great service provided by Real Vision. I appreciate the timeliness and quality of the interview.

  • ST

    Simon T.

    26 11 2016 07:53

    3       0

    same here, i stopped watching CNBC long time ago and only prefer RT over Bloomberg even. Real Vision TV is truly educative but in this interview i d still not know what is in the details. For sure, Italians will vote NO, you won't go for a change if the change is even more uncertainty, its just common logic and yes, unfortunately for Renzi, he has to go after Christmas...

  • de

    dale e.

    26 11 2016 05:27

    1       1

    Very interesting interview,but from a deplorable or JOE SIX PACK point of view there is no fix here only a complete resit will work. Imigration is going to be a hugh problem. Same old problem. Politcs and DEBT. Just like Quigley, lets move that can way out there.

  • bs

    bernard s.

    25 11 2016 19:12

    2       0

    So my takeAway from the interview is that whatever the outcome is, fade the market reaction.

    However the key is whether the prime minister goes or not.

  • MG

    Matteo G.

    25 11 2016 18:52

    11       1

    I am italian and I am amazed by the fact that professor Onida has NO clue about the effects that a no vote will have on italian banks.

  • VS

    Victor S.

    25 11 2016 13:31

    12       0

    I gave it a thumbs up because it is an important subject but The Professor has no clue on what a no vote means to the EU and the businessman talked his book-both worthless on the education of the issue. Pippa is very gracious and asked great questions which were rarely answered.

  • TA

    Tommaso A.

    25 11 2016 10:39

    9       0

    great interview, again as covered ,italians are not against change in the constitution and parties who are against the reform are not necessarily against easing the legislative process.. what is not really covered in here is that the reform also includes measures to centralize power in a number of key issues (environment, immigration etc) away from the regions towards the central government.. the government has done really bad in those issues , especially immigration so NO voters are making a judgment on those issues

  • fc

    frank c.

    25 11 2016 09:19

    16       1

    I am a bit lost here, I thought this was far too theoretical and/academic....the consequences of a NO vote are going to have an extreme effect for only one reason: most probably the government will fall and currently it looks like the 5 Star Movement has the popular vote and when they are elected, it will have consequences. People take the opportunity to vote NO for the pure and simple reason they know that the above might happen and if they vote YES they will get more SHIT! The people are starting to notice what the EU and Politicians in general represent, government and EU are completely disconnected from reality. There is a dual society, this is the only reason that Grillo, Wilders, Le Pen etc are rising and probably will prevail, as the established parties and the EU are running out of crap to say and their condescending attitude is resulting in eventual chaos.

  • DM

    Daniel M.

    25 11 2016 04:36

    9       1

    Interesting interview.
    The trouble with this interview is that these guys are part of 'the elites'. And we've seen that the common man is rejecting the plans of these elites.

  • SD

    Salvatore D.

    25 11 2016 03:57

    4       0

    All in all a good interview about the way the Italian establishment feels about their referendum. Therefore we should not be surprised about the conciliatory tone. In any case it seems that recently all news are perceived to be good for markets.

  • MG

    Mandeep G.

    25 11 2016 02:17

    4       0

    First of great Kudos to Dr Pipa Malmgren and RV to get an insiders view from Italy both from a constitutional/political as well as a investors perspective. Though IMHO I doubt whether the markets will react significantly to a Yes or No vote on the Constitutional Referendum itself. I believe the risk is if No vote wins, and IF Renzi holds true to his word and dissolves his government. In the current anti-europe and nationalist sentiment Italians may choose the Anti-Europe 'The Five Star' party, which may potentially lead to a Ital-exit. Italian exit from Euro, will lead to crisis in europe that may make greek crisis look like a storm in a tea cup. I wish Dr Pipa Malmgren had questioned more specifically about any insights on whether Renzi intends to resign if No vote wins and the probability of 'Five Star' party wining based on current national mood

  • ZY

    ZHENG Y.

    25 11 2016 01:25

    0       0

    I think it is quite good to heard the view from Italy politic and investor. And let them do most of the talking. Maybe as both interviewers were think that the vote is too complicated and do not have a straight outcome or effect but a change on mindset of the country itself. I was totally did not understand about the vote at the first.

  • KC

    Klendathu C.

    25 11 2016 00:09

    22       0

    I only read the transcript, but I thought this interview was over all very insightful. Classic display of cognitive dissonance. Pipa asked great questions that constantly pushed them closer to a truth they refused to see. Everywhere else has serious problems but not Italy. "As far as I know, the Italian banking system is rather strong...", was truly a great admission that gave great insight into their perspective and helped contextualize the entire interview. I agree the specifics of the reform were absent but this overall was a good introductory course into the Italian Referendum.

  • NT

    Nicholas T.

    24 11 2016 23:44

    12       30

    I am a huge supported of RealVision TV but I have to say this was one of the worse Interview I have watch. The only take away from an hour of viewing this interview 1) There will be a vote on amending the Italian Constitution on Dec 4th. That is all. Their was no analysis on what the amendment would be and how it would effect the Italian political scheme. I understand this was a
    Political interview but I usually learn something in more detail then what was presented in this interview. This was very disappointing. I strongly feel this will not be the norm for RealVision. The interviewer Dr Pippa Malmgren was very poor in bring out the A,B,C's of this reform, maybe she comes with a political back ground and doesn't want to pressure these interviewers. I hope she will watch in more detail how it is done in other RealVision interviews. I don't want to be so harsh but it is for the integrity of this special program. Thank You and stay awesome RealVision