Counting the Cost of Trade War with China

Featuring George Magnus

George Magnus is one of the most respected independent economists of his generation, formerly with UBS and now an associate with Oxford University’s China Centre. Counting the cost of a US trade war with China, George also gives his prognosis for the post-Brexit UK economy and the European Union at a critical point in its evolution. Filmed on February 1, 2017 in London.

Published on
3 March, 2017
Topic
China, US Economy, Global Outlook
Duration
43 minutes
Asset class
Currencies, Bonds/Rates/Credit
Rating
21

Comments

  • wg

    william g.

    10 3 2017 18:32

    0       0

    Nice presentation and articulate, but didn't convey anything not already known.

  • JM

    Judith M.

    10 3 2017 03:02

    0       0

    I really enjoyed the coherence of George's views on each issued raised. Another hour would have been great! Thank you George and thank you Ian!

  • IJ

    Ian J.

    6 3 2017 17:38

    5       0

    @ Gerald G; Savers have paid and continue to pay for the banking crisis via financial repression.

  • SD

    Stephen D.

    6 3 2017 04:20

    2       1

    George Magnus is a class act. It is a great irony he was a major voice pointing to huge instability in the financial system in 2008- he was at UBS who were about 60X leveraged. Being part of the power elite brings great benefits in terms of access, but does it make him too sanguine we can control everything and "muddle through"? I wonder. But a great interview nonetheless

  • DS

    David S.

    5 3 2017 20:07

    2       0

    Re: Gerald G.: Thank you for your clarification. This may be an example of British understatement coupled with the Chinese debt allusion. It is reasonable that most individuals at the financial controls of the world know and agree with you about the elephant in the room. Unlike the stuffed elephant in the British Museum, they do not want to awaken this elephant by drawing attention to it explicitly. They are trying to play the "Glass Bead Game" and hoping for the best. DLS

  • PP

    Peter P.

    5 3 2017 12:49

    3       0

    Wonderful interview w/ Mr. Magnus (GM) keeping an open mind to look at & explain both sides of what we are living through - a post GFC populist revolt where the little people get instinctively they were screwed (even if not sure how) in order to keep the financial/political/big business world "stable."

    To anyone asking where is the end game of money printing in US & China, I believe GM shows you in his reference to two graphs on page 37 of the IMF October report. If the % of wholesale funding is spiking to keep the Chinese game going (and this can be lent from thin air via bank leverage), then arguably real Chinese deposits are withdrawing/hiding elsewhere (graph from 2015!)...the denouement as GM calls it, is there. Bravo RV.

  • GG

    Gerald G.

    5 3 2017 03:31

    5       0

    Re. David S.
    My problem with how US debt and money printing was addressed wasn't that Magnus didn't acknowledge it...
    It was the fact that he didn't address the instability that it has created and the potential for a catastrophic collapse. All he was willing to acknowledge was that, in the medium term, there will be a period of "uncomfortable" readjustment (to new demographic realities) and implied that, eventually, things would rebalance. Adjusting to the new realities was always going to be a necessity. The fact that the US has tried to avoid that adjustment by repeatedly inflating one bubble after another is the elephant in the room he didn't address. The current market mania over Trump is just one more symptom of that avoidance.

  • GS

    Greg S.

    5 3 2017 02:58

    3       0

    Even though I agree with a lot of the negative (thumbs down) comments below, I find this type of interview of great value for sizing positions.

  • DS

    David S.

    4 3 2017 21:02

    3       0

    The boarder adjustment tax is a sly way of adding a value-added tax (VAT) into US trade policy. This tariff was proposed in Congress to increase revenues so corporate and personal marginal tax rates could be cut and paid for by the tariff. This is a grand scheme like nation building - in order not to support dictators we will set up stable democracies(???). Nation building was naive and could not have worked. The boarder tariff is naive and will not work. We can also forget the Phillips Curve, as we will not see 4% real GDP growth in my lifetime. I hope the US can have a better tax plan, but practical bipartisan legislation would be required. That may be more difficult than correcting the budget problem itself. DLS

  • DS

    David S.

    4 3 2017 20:32

    0       0

    Re: Gerald G. - At what points in the interview do you feel Mr. Magnus disagreed with your thesis on US debt and money printing?

  • VK

    Viresh K.

    4 3 2017 14:56

    4       0

    Very impressed by the questions asked.

  • AC

    Andrey C.

    4 3 2017 11:21

    2       5

    Far too bland, not enough deep insight

  • RM

    Rainer M.

    4 3 2017 07:48

    0       0

    Great interview

  • GG

    Gerald G.

    4 3 2017 02:24

    11       2

    Seriously???
    How do you talk about the global situation and point fingers at Chinese debt problems without addressing the 20 trillion of US debt or the money printing that has propped up this whole house of cards since 2007? Talk the proverbial elephant in the room...the guy even comes out and says that you can't have a banking crisis without somebody having to pay. Who has paid for the US banking crisis? So far nobody (by virtue of the insane amount of debt and money printing). Does this guy think that whole issue just goes away because the can keeps getting kicked down the road? Maybe he thinks incurring even more debt and doing more money printing to fund Trumps "growth" programs is the answer. (there is no way that you can reconcile Trumps policies with shrinking the debt burden no matter how much people want to believe in the magical money fairy)

  • DG

    Don G.

    4 3 2017 02:05

    8       1

    I liked it . Perhaps his experience leeds him to believe things can go on a lot longer you'd think. I've been waiting for a collapse for a decade and am still waiting for it.

  • WS

    William S.

    3 3 2017 21:11

    20       4

    My overriding impression of this interview: how is it possible that this highly respected economist, with decades of experience, could not have made even an oblique reference to the seemingly obvious FACT (obvious, apparently, only to the "economically unschooled") that the world is teetering on the brink of an utterly unavoidable and almost certainly catastrophic global currency crisis? Well did Nassim Taleb characterize this cadre of "experts" as the "intellectual but idiot" class.

  • SS

    Steven S.

    3 3 2017 19:23

    13       0

    Great new Grant Williams content posted to youtube today: link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pemEr5AswKU
    or here: https://www.macrovoices.com/