Curtail Europe’s Pyromaniac Firefighters

Published on
August 9th, 2017
Topic
Europe, Monetary policy
Duration
31 minutes
Asset class
Bonds/Rates/Credit, Equities, Commodities

Curtail Europe’s Pyromaniac Firefighters

The Interview ·
Featuring Daniel Lacalle

Published on: August 9th, 2017 • Duration: 31 minutes • Asset Class: Bonds/Rates/Credit, Equities, Commodities • Topic: Europe, Monetary policy

Daniel Lacalle, chief economist at Tressis Gestión in Madrid, is optimistic for the future of the European project. But in order to get out of the central bank trap and the shambles of monetary union, he believes the central banks have to stop playing the role of pyromaniac firefighter, creating all the elements of a crisis and encouraging massive risk taking for low yields before presenting themselves as the solution by printing more money. Filmed on July 18, 2017, in London.

Comments

  • JC
    John C.
    7 August 2017 @ 08:28
    Hmnnn interesting. Ian does a good job of moderating here and asking the right questions. I do agree with the speaker's USD views and heard some new stuff about that (e.g. how the overall use of the USD is going up, while on the Euro side it's going down). Was very interesting to hear him talk about how EU companies are mostly not cutting edge, don't have big technological champions, lot of big lumbering conglomerates etc. I'd assume the German mittelstand are the exception here. Some of the initial stuff re reducing government spending and taxes on the productive sounds great and all, and I'm with him, but just do not see it happening in Europe. Even in the US it's going the other way, Trump notwithstanding, while in Europe how much can they really cut now given the hole they have put themselves in? Especially given the fact that "austerity' in European terms = 40% public spending versus GDP and 90% Debt/GDP? Wow.
    • DL
      Daniel L.
      13 August 2017 @ 11:34
      Thanks a lot! Glad you liked it
  • RM
    Russell M.
    7 August 2017 @ 15:47
    Well thought out and balanced with some interesting insights.
  • VS
    Victor S. | Contributor
    7 August 2017 @ 16:02
    Daniel a thumbs up, but the EU must, and will fail !! Please show me any successful social system in history ,lasting 75 years ,that is a welfare/Socialist state ,based on a fiat currency,and that is authoritarian (see the EU Commission) to boot ,that has not seen a default or hyperinflation in history? Zero . The US is 47 years old from 1971,and will also end badly. The EU is far worse. It may not last till 9 months after the Italian election?? I hope you own some gold. Good luck
    • TS
      Thomas S.
      8 August 2017 @ 16:00
      Agreed. The older I get, the more I realize how brainwashed I have been to believe in centralization of power. It is the single most destructive force in the world today. For there to be any hope of reversing the death course humanity is presently pursuing, the EU must fail.
    • DS
      David S.
      9 August 2017 @ 02:59
      Are we discussing the EURO or the EEC -Treaty of Rome, 1957. DLS
  • fT
    forecast T.
    7 August 2017 @ 22:59
    Lets face it - Europe isnt for the people , its for that elite that must protect blood lines hundreds of years old.
    • DS
      David S.
      9 August 2017 @ 02:55
      Maybe it is even more for the dominance of the bureaucrats. See BBC's "Yes Minister" TV series. DLS
  • JH
    John H.
    8 August 2017 @ 04:26
    As much as his take on the USD makes sense (use of the dollar going up, monetary tightening = stronger USD), did we just not experience the opposite result with a stronger USD during QE 1, 2, 3 Op. Twist?
  • RM
    Robert M.
    8 August 2017 @ 08:34
    Excellent interview, the US may be energy independent, but with over USD 300 billion of debt by Shale companies whose ability to service the debt is questionable, how truly energy independent is the US at current oil prices?
  • SS
    Steven S.
    8 August 2017 @ 18:28
    The USA is NOT moving towards energy independence - wind rounded to the closest number makes up 0% of the total. For oil the USA imports ~ 5 million barrels a day - about the same amount coming out of shale -which is the largest mis-allocation of capital there is !!!- we would have to double that output from what currently is to be 'energy independent' - and if you understand the dynamics of depletion in that business - the USA will be net importers of energy/oil today and likely for a long time to come. Energy consumption versus Real GDP growth -have a look at that chart.... - BAM! drop the mic. this discussion is OVER.
  • HJ
    Harry J.
    9 August 2017 @ 18:48
    This economy and the cent banks are playing a game of musical chairs. Simple terms from an old experianced investor!! Maybe history is a valid forcasting tool after all.
  • dd
    darrell d.
    9 August 2017 @ 20:22
    Sure the central banks "should do" the responsible thing but THEY ARE NOT! Wishing upon responsibility not there?
  • HH
    HODL H.
    9 August 2017 @ 21:46
    Is this is the same video from a couple days ago? But being re-uploaded?
  • PM
    Paul M.
    10 August 2017 @ 12:56
    He lost me at "...supply of dollars is not increasing..." C'mon, check your money supply charts.
    • DL
      Daniel L.
      13 August 2017 @ 11:33
      Maybe if you had continued watching, it would have helped. "What matters here is not money and credit as such, but money and credit that are created out of thin air. Loose monetary policies of the Fed coupled with fractional reserve banking are ultimately responsible for the expansion in money supply. It is this expansion that is the root of the problem." Frank Shostak. Fed part of that supply is gone while ECB continues to expand bal sheet. That is what I am saying.
  • LV
    Luís V.
    14 August 2017 @ 21:51
    Nice "chat". But can´t quite reconcile the EU welfare project with a positive view on Europe. And if I understood correctelly, even DLacalle said that there is a demografic problem in the Continent. And if the EU is not a friendly project for the markets, how can one have a positive view? I´m lost. It´s just the cheapening of the euro that will make it? Nice perspective on commodities - would like to see/hear more, esp. oil.

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