The Kyle Bass Interviews: Escaping Thucydides’s Trap

Published on
October 5th, 2018
Duration
54 minutes

The Kyle Bass Interviews: Escaping Thucydides’s Trap

The Kyle Bass Interviews ·
Featuring Graham T. Allison

Published on: October 5th, 2018 • Duration: 54 minutes

Kyle Bass sits down with Graham T. Allison, professor of government at the Harvard Kennedy School, for a master class in geopolitics, economics, and history. These titans tackle the issue of China’s evolving role on the world stage through the juxtaposition of cultures, governments, and technology. Filmed on September 17, 2018 in Cambridge, Massachusetts.

Comments

  • EC
    Emily C.
    5 July 2019 @ 16:14
    American corporations have gladly done business in China knowing that they could make huge profits using China’s slave labor. The price paid was the transfer of their IP. And they gladly made this exchange, because they can and do block that technology from coming back into the US via the ITC and let’s face it, corporations care about profit and nothing is more profitable than making your goods with slave labor. There is no free lunch. The Chinese play the long game. They are willing to sacrifice their people for the future of China. I don’t have any sympathy for the US and Europe, now crying that China has stolen their IP. You gave it to them in exchange for slave labor and now realize, oops what a mistake.
    • EC
      Emily C.
      21 July 2019 @ 09:23
      It’s really interesting when companies like Apple have factory workers committing suicide due to horrible working conditions, we sit here and wonder why China has not developed into a nice democracy like the US. If American companies had cared about something other than profits, they could have possibly strengthened workers’ rights/ influenced workers. It makes me wonder if a more powerful working class could have led to a much better China. Apple pays an engineer in China $400/month. And even more sickening is the fact that semi-conductor workers are knowingly exposed to carcinogenic materials. Truly nothing good comes from exploiting other people. It’s really quite interesting the role the West has played in keeping the Chinese worker a vulnerable powerless class. The West and the Communist party have worked hand in hand to make this happen.
  • zz
    zilu z.
    12 May 2019 @ 23:50
    It may appear that China is a united piece, but that adhesive is like 80% fear , 20% econ and almost 0% loyalty, plus that 20% econ is decreasing drastically since Chinese people gradually finds out that their input and return is out of proportion(even with the digital great wall blocking the information). I would not suggest a physical war against China, but forcing China to lift its information barriers with politics maybe the most cost-efficient way to normalize Chinese economic model.
  • IH
    Iain H.
    14 April 2019 @ 07:04
    Did Grant ever talk with Kyle about this discussion?
  • TM
    Tom M.
    1 April 2019 @ 18:41
    China did/is doing massive damage to Western economies and I'm to be mindful of their point of view? No sir.
    • DC
      Dawid C.
      28 July 2019 @ 02:44
      Q
  • EJ
    Enrique J.
    21 March 2019 @ 09:27
    lovely
  • VS
    Victor S. | Contributor
    5 February 2019 @ 21:18
    Gents very educational . All good but a thought for you -China has no property rights. Therefore all the billionaires are loaned their net worth. If/ when china has a debt problem all net worths are gone. XI is basically a Maoist (i’m Told from a high authority ) not a believer in Confucius.expect the worst. Last point:where can you show me a planned economy that was successful -You cant! Thereby when a recession hits China is when you can judge its success? Good luck
  • SP
    Stephane P.
    4 January 2019 @ 03:29
    There is no way avoiding a war with China in the near future. We are enemies / competitors in every domain.
  • WD
    Wenhao D.
    6 December 2018 @ 18:59
    Play tough with China to re-chain the global chain. Companies do not have this power but being dogs....we do not need a friend to kill you on the back. That’s not what friendship is. Make Huawei down! Take all the networks that they built. Surround them with allies....so hurt them with no steals and no export dollars, finally they will follow the rules and standards.
  • BM
    Barry M.
    18 November 2018 @ 02:56
    Simplistic I know but Jagger & Bowie shared center stage circa 1985 during "Live Aid", USA and China will be sharing center stage circa 2025 during " Save the world from another war" aid. Just my humble opinion, China is not going away, Nor is Russia, and as a resident in the USA, I have to hope the USA has a future too.
  • MS
    Matt S.
    17 November 2018 @ 09:02
    Was it really necessary to edit in Kyle Bass yawning? Seems a little disrespectful to both parties.
    • ls
      lucas s.
      2 January 2019 @ 22:57
      totally agree, seems like an editing fail.
  • CC
    Chad C.
    7 November 2018 @ 22:20
    Kyle's discussions on China are truly fascinating! Love every minute
  • RK
    Roger K.
    31 October 2018 @ 18:38
    Don't take the eye on the ball i.e North Korea which is the hit-man of China.
  • AH
    Ahmed H.
    22 October 2018 @ 10:10
    Brilliant
  • JX
    JIA X.
    16 October 2018 @ 23:20
    HKD
  • TB
    Tim B.
    16 October 2018 @ 11:22
    I would agree that it is a fantastic book and everyone should read it. My big question, could it not be that the original premise is flawed? Perhaps China does not become the largest economy for many decades from now, and their recent growth is a debt fueled surge that is bound to fail. Thucydides trap is still an issue, and should be taken very seriously but we may be very premature in thinking it will happen anytime soon.
  • ZH
    Zayd H.
    15 October 2018 @ 20:48
    Awesome interview. Bought the (audio)book immediately and have enjoyed the first 9 chapters so far tremendously. Kyle - doing your bit at elevating the conversation above the daily din.
  • ag
    anthony g.
    13 October 2018 @ 13:29
    Interesting no doubt, for which many thanks. A complicated, long term subject with many pieces. Essentially we shall see seems to be about the most accurate thing one can say right now. The question which needs more attention perhaps is whether the USA will continue the foreign policy on this subject started by Trump... or will it change from time to time ? The cold war took about 40 years or so ...... can the USA produce that kind of concentration ..... again ?
  • CG
    Christine G.
    13 October 2018 @ 11:08
    I don't think you can talk about US/world trade without talking about Triffin's dilemma. The US has enjoyed the benefits of having the world's reserve currency (e.g., unlimited borrowing ability, countries scrambling to provide us with cheap goods) and now that we are going to slowly loose that status, we do not like the negative consequences (e.g., hollowing out of much of our industrial base). And no one likes the consequences of a slow shift out of the dollar as the world currency towards who-knows-what reserve currency/currencies (e.g., unstable world currency/financial system). To the extent that this is not recognized, people will create all kinds of crazy explanations for what is going on and for who is responsible. I am not confident that anyone in this administration even knows what Triffin's dilemma is. We are playing with a junior high school junior varsity team in a world that needs some pros. Please get someone from the BIS to talk on these issues. Thanks.
    • KS
      Kathleen S.
      13 October 2018 @ 15:51
      Christine have you ever thought about who really benefited from the US dollar being the world reserve currency??? Hmmm??? Was it the millions of average Americans who lost their good paying jobs to China & other third world workers/slaves, in exchange for what - unsufferable predatory debt and cheaper flat screen tv's? Was it black Americans who benefitted from all the the social programs created to help them in Johnson' Great Society - have they been lifted out poverty?? Was it the millions of people around the world who have been murdered since the end of WW2 because their leaders dared to disagree with US policy??? Was it the US soldiers who have fought in these illegal wars and died or have come home missing limbs and with PTSD's?? The US dollar being the world reserve currency has served the following: Global Banks, Multinational Corporations, and the military industrial complex and that is why it was given this status in the first place. The United States military which has caused so much pain and suffering around the world would not be able to do what it has done had the Federal Reserve not been allowed to print money out of nothing. The Dollar should have lost it's status in 1971 when Nixon closed the gold window. And FYI Keynes knew that no sovereign currency could serve as both a domestic currency and a world currency and he objected to the US dollar as the world currency at the Bretton Woods Conference and he was over ruled. The United States is a deindustrialized nation of debt slaves because of the US Dollar being the world reserve currency and I don't see that as a benefit.
    • CG
      Christine G.
      15 October 2018 @ 01:48
      I am not disagreeing with Kathleen S. but I don't think the initial strategy was as premeditated or nefarious as her comment implies. Keynes may have seen problems but Triffin's dilemma had not been proposed and most people did not see the future problems. The US got a lot out of it and lost some things in the process. The issues now are what is going to replace the dollar (China certainly wants to and is making moves in that direction but there are many reasons it cannot be a global reserve currency, though it may develop a sphere of influence; SDRs are a more logical choice but I am not sure how much this is being discussed). The second issue is how can we plan for and mitigate some of the dangerous dislocations that will arise as we slowly loose that status.
    • CG
      Christine G.
      15 October 2018 @ 01:52
      As a PPS, it should be noted that we are appalled by factory work in China (though most people work in those factories, save some money and leave), those factories lifted millions of Chinese out of abject poverty and left Chinese workers much better off than they were.
    • EC
      Emily C.
      21 July 2019 @ 06:55
      Yes, China has developed a middle class. But 40 percent of its population lives under $5/day. Have we improved their lives? American chip makers knowingly took their manufacturing out of Silicon Valley to China, full well knowing those workers would develop cancer and their children would develop birth defects. I’m not a fan of the Chinese government, but it’s really hypocritical for people like Kyle Bass to complain about IP transfer and human rights violations in China, when in fact American corporations have profited so dearly from them and were in the best position to require humane working conditions. Where is corporate responsibility in all of this? The original argument against globalization twenty years ago was that it would be a race to the bottom for workers. This has clearly proved to be true.
  • JM
    James M.
    13 October 2018 @ 07:21
    “We won the war” “we did this” “we did that” these money guys live in a delusional protective bubble imo. 🤑
  • VC
    Vince C.
    13 October 2018 @ 05:47
    Douglas T's big picture interpretation of the video is entirely misguided. His post is a great example however of fitting one's own biases to confronting information
  • DT
    Douglas T.
    12 October 2018 @ 00:07
    The big picture is that China clawed its way out of a deep communist pit with the help of the rest of the world, especially the USA. Not least by "stealing" most of the IP they required to become a near super power. Now that they are a 'big boy', there won't be any more help, they're on their own, which is as it should be. This is not directly adversarial, and is perhaps a little over due. It's like kicking your 30 year old college grad out of your basement: your on your own buddy. By stealing IP, they haven't built the full culture to do their own. And if they were totally cut off it, would slow their progress dramatically (not likely, I know). In this context, their belligerence feels like under appreciation. They have adopted the modern world's archietcutre, transportation, fincial systems, agriculture, energy systems etc etc. But as communists they don't really understand those things. For example, their hubris with respect debt. We know debt is dangerous, they apparently feel their innate superiority excuses them from prudence. We'll see.
  • Sv
    Sid v.
    11 October 2018 @ 21:39
    Great interview by Mr Bass. However, I am left with some uneasiness about the future welfare of my own nation. Seems we allowed China to take off under the mistaken idea that they would give up thousands of years of culture and become lazy, fat, porn watching Americas once they got a little money under their mattress. Seems like a bad theory on which to base foreign policy. Now the snowball is running down hill and their appears to be no stopping it.
  • BS
    Bill S.
    10 October 2018 @ 15:34
    Given the desire of European leaders to shed their sovereignty and embrace European “order”, I am less confident about their contribution to a China containment strategy.
    • DR
      David R.
      10 October 2018 @ 23:51
      European leaders have wisely decided that what's more needed is an American containment strategy. Like the EU Finance Head announced last month at the UN in conjunction with their Iranian and Chinese allies; top priority and deployment of an EU-Chinese payments system to replace/neutralize SWIFT as the US has weaponized it against Iran and now Europe. Huge US error. Germany and Europe have been increasingly appalled & vocally outraged by US policy lately, and they've raced into the arms of China with agreements ranging from prioritizing a massive High-Speed Rail project to link Germany & China ASAP (already under construction now) to the aforementioned de-dollarization objective they now share.
    • DS
      David S.
      16 October 2018 @ 00:48
      I agree with David R. - President Xi started with the slogan "Make China Great Again." I think that the US administration policies and tariffs are just making it easier to make China great again. It is earlier than China may have wanted, but do not look a gift horse in the mouth. China's biggest problems are trying to figure out what the US administration really wants and managing its debts. DLS
    • mh
      michael h.
      24 February 2019 @ 21:53
      The EU is only standing on one leg and with no standing army. The chinese rails to europe ROI is negative. The Chinese Communist Party's ratio of debt to GDP is far beyond the US's 4%. The yuan is so unstable that less than 1% of transactions that occur world wide is in yuan. How would the yuan replace the swift system?? How much more can they internally borrow from itself? ( A lot😂) The Chinese love China, but hate the CCP. How long can authoritarian force maintain order? Until the next significant downturn in mho.
  • TA
    Trevor A.
    10 October 2018 @ 01:15
    There is nothing new in this interview. Typical Chicom narrative rehash. It's a fine interview but not in my top 50. He could not even give an estimate about the percentage of war after Bass asked him to put a number on it directly. Bass keeps the interview on track. He does a great job listening and asking questions but I was not impressed with Graham. If I have missed something in my review I am open to reconsider but this is my current opinion fresh after watching. Cheers
    • pb
      phillip b.
      13 October 2018 @ 17:26
      Re "If I have missed something in my review I am open to reconsider but this is my current opinion fresh after watching," what you missed is the long arc of history. An arc that can be studied as it's played out many times in the past few hundred years. This same arc was first documented about 2,000 years ago. The key takeaway is: when one great power threatens to displace another, war is almost always the outcome; but, it doesn’t have to be. Buy a used copy of the book and at least read Part 4 and the conclusion, or Part 3 on.
  • FG
    Fraser G.
    9 October 2018 @ 21:39
    A remarkable interview. Incredibly relevant yet grounded in huge amounts of historical context. Very much looking forward to part two. Highly recommended
  • MB
    Matthias B.
    9 October 2018 @ 19:37
    on the debt topic, interesting comparison to Tesla/Elon Musk. I am truly impressed with Kyle as an interviewer, I think he did a phantastic job. Since Kyle has delved so much into the various debt issues, why not finding him a suitable partner to elaborate on an inevitable debt jubilee (not sure who the biggest proponent these days is to support the application of the accounting gimmick, ie wash between CB and treasury, as this would do the magic trick, is it Mr Alistair Turner?).
  • TR
    Todd R.
    9 October 2018 @ 14:57
    can't wait tell part 2
  • PJ
    Peter J.
    9 October 2018 @ 08:40
    Great interview
  • dh
    daniel h.
    9 October 2018 @ 03:55
    A level of understanding is missing here: Level of conciousness The usa is cursed with president who has the conciousness of a seven year old(say and do anything to feel good about himself). A higher level would be to see us as all being one, living on / in one world. (Being democratic is a curse when the electorate realise they can vote themselves benefits, especially when they are of a low level of conciousness). Equally an authoritarian country can outperform the democracy due to the leadership operating at a higher conciouness. examples are there: Singapore. So the political process chosen is less important than the level of conciouness being utilised in that political system. To an outsider the USA appear corrupt and dysfuntctional is an understatment.
    • MM
      Michael M.
      9 October 2018 @ 14:35
      Nobody in Singapore is making any decisions on the basis of us all 'living on/in one world'. Quite the opposite.
    • DR
      David R.
      10 October 2018 @ 23:29
      Michael, he merely said that Singapore is an example of an authoritarian country outperforming a democracy. And he is 100% correct as Singapore is vastly superior to USA by every macroeconomic benchmark by a huge margin, proportionately of course. Extremely impressive given that only 50 years ago it was an impoverished, malaria-infested, worthless island, even poorer than black Jamaica before. It's also 90% Chinese and the blueprint/model of what China began copying/modeling under the great leadership of the anti-Maoist Deng Xiaoping. In contrast, today the US is increasingly embracing the same Marxist and anti-trade policies that China did as it quickly fell from the most rich & powerful nation in the world to poorest & weakest. We're now seeing reversion to the norm again, like it was for 2,000 years while China was #1, and anyone trying to stand in the way will get crushed and destroyed (watch and see). By the way, with all due respect, Mr Bass has been wrong on China for many years, losing a fortune for anyone following his awful China investment advice, and he's clearly ignorant about the region and culture. He's never lived in Asia and isn't descended from there so it's no surprise he's clueless about it.
  • RF
    Richard F.
    8 October 2018 @ 21:46
    When and where will i be able to find the "2nd Kyle Bass, interview?
    • DS
      Damon S.
      9 October 2018 @ 02:50
  • PD
    Peter D.
    8 October 2018 @ 21:27
    The idea that such a thing as "intellectual property" exists and that leveraging an idea is "theft" because some guy with a large legal department patented the process is ludicrous. Governments are involved in espionage all the time. Like Henry Kissinger loves to say, he would be "disappointed" if the US was not doing the same thing. BTW the Thucydides Trap idea is a great idea, but Allison didn't come up with it. He "stole" it from Kissinger himself, who brought it up in his own book about China.
    • EM
      Emma M.
      9 October 2018 @ 00:18
      Following your logic, suppose CRISPR Therapeutics teamed up a major winnwirth a Pfizer or the like, and has to spend z. Over $500 billion doing so over a long period of time
    • DS
      Damon S.
      9 October 2018 @ 02:46
    • Sv
      Sid v.
      11 October 2018 @ 21:34
      If there is no right to intellectual property, no one would have any financial incentive to invent, write, or create anything, since the hard work of doing so would just be stolen by the vagabonds of the world. I am shocked that someone on this site would have this opinion of intellectual, or any other property.
    • PD
      Peter D.
      11 October 2018 @ 22:52
      Sid: Lack of US Big Legal IP muscle behind them never stopped the Wright brothers, Pasteur, nor Beethoven. BTW physical property is way different than intellectual property. IP equates to ideas, and if you stifle ideas, you stifle freedom and innovation. Emma: there is a big difference between providing IP protection in your own country (which Allison and the US have a perfect right to advocate and do), and forcing your domestic patents on other countries.
  • SC
    Stanley C.
    8 October 2018 @ 06:47
    Excellent interview. Many Chinese intellectuals / businessmen around my circles do support Trump’s hardline policy against China. Though no one says it openly, there are wide discontent on Xi’s authoritarian rules. Chinese are looking for changes .
  • SS
    Steven S.
    8 October 2018 @ 04:50
    Simply outstanding interview. I travel to eastern China quite often and interact on a regular basis with scientific colleagues in China. I found this to be a very rich conversation, with some quite subtle hints and insights about the China-US relationship. This is the geopolitical and economic issue that I think about going forward for the next 20 years. Thank you RV, Kyle, and Graham.
  • JW
    James W.
    7 October 2018 @ 23:45
    Can't say I learned anything from this one.
    • PC
      Peter C.
      8 October 2018 @ 02:58
      James, did you have a lobotomy?
    • DS
      Damon S.
      9 October 2018 @ 02:52
  • AS
    Anant S.
    7 October 2018 @ 21:19
    Wonderful ! RealVision.... I have to say that your content is just amazing. Enjoying a lot of your other interviews too.
  • SA
    Scott A.
    7 October 2018 @ 15:09
    This goes on my top three RV interviews list and I'm picking up the book. Mr. Allison's ability to provide a clear and compelling viewpoint from both the US and Chinese point of view was amazing. While not a financial discussion, to me this was a perfect example of what "macro" means.
    • DS
      Damon S.
      9 October 2018 @ 02:53
    • DS
      Damon S.
      9 October 2018 @ 02:58
      Z KHZMXX M
  • SS
    Sam S.
    7 October 2018 @ 13:37
    Felt like I was watching Jonathan Winters as an incredible academic involved in actual practice and outcomes of theories and concepts. Kyle Bass was very humble yet helpful in connecting finance with the actions and reactions of policy makers. Professionally done and truly a macro understanding of our global complex world. Off to read another book!
  • JV
    Jason V.
    7 October 2018 @ 11:11
    Intensely interesting. Thank you, gentlemen.
  • CB
    Chris B.
    7 October 2018 @ 10:06
    Very enjoyable and interesting interview. To repeat what many have already said very nice job by Kyle on the interview. Also, obviously kudos to Professor Allison for synthesizing a complex subject to topics that can be digested in an hour interview. I am really looking forward to the second piece with Grant and Kyle.
  • DC
    Dave C.
    7 October 2018 @ 03:24
    Fabulous interview - people wanting more should check out the interview conducted by Kiril Sokoloff of @WhatILearnedTW with @GrahamTAllison - compelling stuff. https://twitter.com/Ukdavec01/status/1048774099109965825
    • PC
      Peter C.
      8 October 2018 @ 02:56
      thanks for sharing Dave
  • T~
    Tshort63 ~.
    7 October 2018 @ 02:39
    I enjoyed the conversation and Kyle asked many questions I think about. Downloading the audible book now.
  • HJ
    Harry J.
    6 October 2018 @ 22:35
    I’ve admired Kyle for years. Every time he appears on RV I’m positively impressed. Very good interview!
  • JH
    Jesse H.
    6 October 2018 @ 22:12
    Excellent interview in my book. Don't understand the Thumbs Down folks - Kyle did a great job as an interviewer, and Graham certainly did not disappoint! Thanks, RV!
  • JM
    James M.
    6 October 2018 @ 22:11
    Fantastic insights from a non-financial market bias point of view. Plenty to digest!
  • SU
    Shakeel U.
    6 October 2018 @ 20:09
    Fascinating and brilliant
  • VK
    Viresh K.
    6 October 2018 @ 18:50
    A genuinely excellent, excellent interview.
  • XS
    Xin S.
    6 October 2018 @ 18:46
    What does the percentage of war probability Graham put? I am not clear about more than likely? which means 50%?
  • bm
    brian m.
    6 October 2018 @ 18:46
    Great stuff RV...
  • PB
    Pieter B.
    6 October 2018 @ 17:19
    Massive thanks Kyle & Graham! I really enjoyed this!
  • AG
    Adam G.
    6 October 2018 @ 16:31
    It seems that since Kyle is unable to actually make money as a hedge fund manager he is now moonlighting as a political theorist.
    • EF
      Eric F.
      6 October 2018 @ 17:00
      Try and make comments that add value Adam. Maybe you think this note drags Kyle down. On reading it, the only person it reflects badly on is yourself. Let’s all drag ourselves up, not down.
    • JR
      J R.
      6 October 2018 @ 17:19
      Interesting. Another "Adam G." is praising this interview right below...changed your mind? Anyways, a distasteful comment aiming at one of the most brilliant guys around the RV platform/crazy track record. Just keep it to yourself next time around, zero value add and chat pollution.
    • AG
      Adam G.
      7 October 2018 @ 20:26
      Wow, this is strange, it appears someone had hacked my account or there are two people of the same name.... the above negative comment was not posted by me, I did post a comment on Oct 5th as can be seen below. If RV could please contact me, you have my email on file, I would like to get the situation resolved... and I hope this does not happen to anybody else. I am a charter member and have the great respect for all that RV provides.
    • M.
      Milton .. | Founder
      8 October 2018 @ 07:27
      Hello everyone - The comments posted by Adam G's are indeed from different people and it so happens that they have the same initial. As the community is growing bigger and bigger we will be working on a better comment system that will help with these confusions.
    • AG
      Adam G.
      10 October 2018 @ 03:53
      Lets not confuse Kyle's insights with his inability to produce profits for his investors.
    • JM
      John M.
      20 October 2018 @ 05:02
      Translation: "I wish I could be as cool as Kyle!"
  • KW
    K W.
    6 October 2018 @ 06:48
    I am surprise by the lack of understanding on the relationship between Taiwan and China. The mentioning of "going for independence" on the Taiwanese is misleading. That concept is mostly promoted on the Chinese side--because they want to take it back. From what I experience is the Taiwanese go about its life and don't think too much of what the Chinese is saying--because its already operating under democracy with its own currency, military, economic, etc. I don't think China will force a take back of Taiwan. The political cost (in the world stage) and the economic cost is too great to make a move like that. Also I don't think they're technically ready to do so either. I do think the countries around the world are not stupid and is skeptical of the Chinese propaganda and objectives. Reason US confronted the Chinese is exactly what the Mr Allison mentioned. I don't think major countries will blindly forge relationship with the Chinese and rely on the Chinese as the world has relied on the US in the past. The world can rely on the US is because US political system is open and change every four years and the market here is open with proper rule of the law. So I don't think US will loose leadership to China from the world stage despite what people think of Trump nowadays. Unless of course China takes a different path and decide to lead the world through openness and let go of its economy and makes it fair and rule based such outside investors are willing to buy into the Chinese dream. Until then the only dream most people dream of nowadays is the American dream.
    • EF
      Eric F.
      9 October 2018 @ 03:24
      Really interesting comments that got me thinking, many thanks.
    • JE
      J E.
      9 October 2018 @ 07:23
      China doesn't want that kind of leadership that you talked about... Historically it only wants to have a sphere of influence in its local region. The world will exist in a multi-polar world where multiple countries will have to learn to work together for a better humanity. Trump is retarded, he is destroying global order from within. He is causing a political civil war within the country that may lead to violence at some point and he also makes U.S allies question their alliance with the U.S. His trade wars will likely lead the world to a dark path. Russia did a asymmetric cyber attack and won big on this one without firing a shot.
  • SS
    Sean S.
    6 October 2018 @ 02:56
    The chairs are always a little too close together
  • MK
    Mike K.
    6 October 2018 @ 02:44
    ...and I just bought his book!
  • CD
    Charles D.
    6 October 2018 @ 02:20
    Trump & his team have made a lot of glaring errors but two that just leap out at me is Taiwan..serious blunder..if the Chinese choose..they can take back Taiwan..and make the US look like a paper tiger who promised to assist..but couldn’t..the other is the success of triangulation which has kept the world stable for a long time..by constantly sanctioning Russia...etc..we’ve driven Russia into China’s orbit...together that’s quite a formidable adversary... absolutely brilliant discussion..As a charter member of RV..I’d say the best I’ve had the privilege of watching.
    • KW
      K W.
      6 October 2018 @ 06:49
      From your comment its obviously you've no understanding (or perhaps you bought into the Chinese propaganda) of the risks China will take to force a take over of Taiwan. I don't think they're that kind of risk takers.
  • TB
    Troy B.
    6 October 2018 @ 00:52
    Freinds with Kissinger....coool
  • RA
    Robert A.
    6 October 2018 @ 00:18
    It just leaped off the screen as I was watching this!—the way this interview and Kiril Sokoloff’s interview of Ronnie Chan intertwine. This one takes off where the other one began and vice verse. I suggest to my fellow RV’ers that they watch both of these back to back....and it doesn’t matter in which order. Any book that Kyle Bass sees fit to read multiple times is subject matter that I want to acquaint myself with! Great job by both these Gentleman in this presentation and special thanks to Milton for this one.
  • AG
    Adam G.
    5 October 2018 @ 22:45
    Very insightful interview... history repeats or at least rhymes. Looking from Mars and recent foreign policy tracks of the US in light of this discussion one questions (at least I do) the US strategy. Certainly the trade leveling as they discussed is welcome but the tactic with US allies and potential allies I don't see as being productive in the context of a rising power that has 4x the population of the US. In my view, alienating Russia in particular is a mistake. It only hastens China's assent as access to easy energy provides quicker access to wealth and gets the machines going faster. I lived through the cold war and MAD was the saving factor. Rhetoric today makes me question the if the concept is understood. Nobody wins a nuclear exchange. From an investment/trading standpoint, a world that works together provides opportunity for everybody but maybe I'm naive... Hopefully, cool and thoughtful minds prevail. Thanks RV!
    • AG
      Adam G.
      5 October 2018 @ 22:55
      Reminds me of an old story of when the President De Gaulle of France at the time visited Chairman Mao and asked his opinion of the French Revolution, Mao replied "too early to say..."
    • pb
      phillip b.
      5 October 2018 @ 23:15
      RV has a series on the changing world and investment implications, and it comes up in so many interviews. And is planned in Part 2. The lack of exercise of wisdom at the highest levels of the functioning of the U.S. government is perplexing. It's flummoxing how quickly the pace of U.S. hegemonic decline has seemed to become. The economic consequences.... The 'There is no comprising the American standard of living' was a cliche until maybe about 2001. No one can explain why the elites are not taking more care of the privilege the U.S has. Druckenmiller touched on this in his RV interview. A further lesson freom at large is that Tweets and bellicose rhetoric do matter, they do cause harm. I wonder which of the blunders will in longer-term be considered worse compared to what we think of them now. The U.S. letting the relationship warm between Russia and China comes to mind. Another is running record deficits while at full employment. Oh vey.
  • pb
    phillip b.
    5 October 2018 @ 22:05
    Great content again RV! This is one of the must-view interviews on RV. Seminal. For those who have not already done so, I recommend reading the book. Even if you don't want to invest the time to read from cover-to-cover, buy it and read just Part 4 "Why War is Not Inevitable." The periodical "The Atlantic" has a piece authored by Mr. Allison that was published on Sept 24, 2015, and is freely available on their site.
  • je
    james e.
    5 October 2018 @ 22:01
    Kyle is as good a listener as an interviewer and that makes him great at this. He's good on both sides of the discussion.
  • SM
    Sam M.
    5 October 2018 @ 21:37
    Kyle Bass, not just world class investor, but all around classy guy period. So humble and a great model for young people like myself to follow.
  • RJ
    Randy J.
    5 October 2018 @ 21:10
    OMG, this man is brilliant! Having experience in DoD his conversations hit home. Insightful and from a financial perspective should send chills.... Thank you RV for this outstanding segment.
  • IO
    Igor O.
    5 October 2018 @ 21:00
    The Concept of Mutually Assured destruction will prevent sides falling into Thucydides Trap. From Harald Malmgren about Cuban Missile Crisis - when it was time to go to bunkers but nobody could take their families, people sobered up. I am rephrasing here. Not so hopeful for people being smart and creative about it.
    • RM
      Robert M.
      6 October 2018 @ 00:02
      Excellent point. Realpolitik. People were clearly just as smart and creative in the 12/16 incidents over the last 500 yrs that did lead to war. Only difference between those events and the cold war was MAD. That made people smarten up! So the real game is really just slowing down China's growth as part of a comprehensive pushing back against their imperialism. Much of this is already in the bag: 1. declining cohorts of young males will lessen their belligerence 2. Their refusal to restructure away from FAI and SOEs and toward the consumer will keep them firmly in the middle income trap (ie: poorer than otherwise) 3. We have seen this movie/s before, making this CW2 (cold war 2) in one sense and in another Japan mark 2 (state led Asian industrialism). Expect the slow relative decline of China to become more obvious.
  • SS
    Steve S.
    5 October 2018 @ 20:56
    That Professor was one real smart guy.
  • RD
    Ryan D.
    5 October 2018 @ 20:55
    Seriously! Who down votes this? Excellent interview by Kyle Bass. Buying Mr. Allison's book NOW!
  • PR
    Paolo R.
    5 October 2018 @ 20:25
    Kyle did disappointment... he’s got a talent, great interview FANTASTIC 👍 ⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️
    • PR
      Paolo R.
      5 October 2018 @ 20:27
      didn't disappoint.. *
  • DS
    David S.
    5 October 2018 @ 19:48
    China's long-term commitment to a stable society is the gateway to partnering between the Western World and China. The West needs to get over the concept that the only good form of government is a representative democracy. (It is not working very well now in the US “to form a more stable union.”) With the progress that China is making on AI and technology, before long the West may be stealing technology from China which will open China's eyes to the value of intellectual property. Let's hope for a much better future were trade is benefited by peace and stability. DLS
    • KW
      K W.
      6 October 2018 @ 06:52
      I enjoy your sense of humor.
    • DS
      David S.
      7 October 2018 @ 06:00
      cc w. Thanks. With five thumbs down humor is a good thing even if it is tongue in cheek. The probability of a win/win outcome in this tariff war is less than 10% for sure. That leaves a 90% outcome for a win/lose or a lose/lose case. I think that China is playing chess while we are playing checkers. The US has more power, but China has more time. It seems that a lose/lose outcome is the most probable for both. I just do not like it. DLS
  • DS
    David S.
    5 October 2018 @ 19:47
    Excellent interview. When the USA believed in the doctrine of Manifest Destiny, we took all the land between the Atlantic and the Pacific Oceans by any means possible. When we captured parts of Mexico and Mexico City, the land that was part of the Manifest Destiny were taken, but not all of Mexico. China may believe that their Manifest Destiny is equally valid which includes the complete integration of Hong Kong and Taiwan. DLS
  • NI
    Noah I.
    5 October 2018 @ 19:13
    I love listening to Mr. Bass talk but he’s also a gem of an interviewer. Much like Kiril Sokoloff in that he knows the right questions to ask and guides the interview while allowing the interviewee to freely express their opinions without interruption, micromanagement or attempting to have the interviewee discuss the matter in the context of the interviewer’s pre-determined biases (eg Jim Grant — as much as I love Jim I would rather hear his thoughts as a separate piece rather than as 50% of the interview). You could tell Kyle was listening to him speak and basing his questions on the content of the interview rather than haphazardly jumping from prewritten question to prewritten question with abrupt transitions. Thanks to RV for an absolutely incredible and enlightening interview, and thanks again to Mr. Bass for demonstrating once again why he’s successful in all of his endeavors.
  • FC
    Fractal C.
    5 October 2018 @ 18:19
    I just did not want this discussion to end! Wow. Awesome job Kyle and tons of respect for Prof Allison,
    • FC
      Fractal C.
      7 October 2018 @ 15:32
      Somebody really put a thumbs down to this comment of mine? I mean seriously?
  • PS
    Patrick S.
    5 October 2018 @ 17:54
    Wonderful. Looking forward to Part Two
  • rr
    rlw r.
    5 October 2018 @ 16:43
    RV top notch and many thanks, also really like the notion of a follow up with the focus to Invest Implications.
  • DD
    Daniel D.
    5 October 2018 @ 16:12
    Very high quality content. Thank you.
  • DL
    Dillon L.
    5 October 2018 @ 15:09
    Rebuild the world with unlimited clean cheap energy, electric vehicles, and meet the climate crisi
  • MM
    Mike M.
    5 October 2018 @ 14:09
    Much appreciated, having read the book the interview made the book even better. Kyle did a great job allowing Graham to expound and provide real examples for the risks looming out there. I will be sleeping with one eye open for the near term.
  • SG
    Sophie G.
    5 October 2018 @ 14:00
    I live in China and am generally fascinated by this dialogue. However, I've felt for sometime that visiting Shanghai is a view into the future of how a major city and infrastructure is run by harnessing technology and clean energy......... Protect the many.... And work ethic instilled at a very young age is a very powerful catalyst for change. Complacency from the west has endured for many years to its detriment . 😊
    • KW
      K W.
      6 October 2018 @ 06:58
      I bet you've only visited certain parts of Shanghai and very small part of it. Last time I traveled there (I visit the not so glorified parts of Shanghai often as well) I don't think see where the city is harnessing technology and clean energy as much as other places I've been to in other parts of Asia or here in the US. There is a reason why most better off Chinese wants to move to the US and have second home here. I do agree the younger generation of Chinese are extremely competitive and do have good work ethic. But having worked in the tech industry here in the US I also experienced people here often work pretty hard as well. Motivations are different. They (Chinese) do study harder but they lack creative thinking. Not saying they won't get there though. IMHO.
    • BM
      Bryan M.
      6 October 2018 @ 07:15
      Hi Sophie, it is wonderful to be able to communicate with someone like yourself through RV. I have one question and one comment. Firstly, I am Canadian (non warlike) and was raised in Vancouver which is now almost a Chinese city. In your opinion, why have so many wealthy Chinese chosen to get out of, at least partially, their country. As for your comment on Western complacency you are exactly correct. I am a grandfather now and I want my grandson to go to Chinese school as I believe the 21st century belongs to China.
    • VC
      Vince C.
      6 October 2018 @ 09:45
      Hi Bryan, I may butt in to help answer your comment/question: scale. China has 1.3bn people. If even just 1% of Chinese migrated elsewhere, that is 13 million people. A city of 10 million people in China is considered a smaller/medium sized city. Also consider the large number of native Chinese in other Asian countries - Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia, etc. There is a saying in China (paraphrasing) that if you are special, there are 1000 others just as talented as you are. If there are wealthy Chinese living in Vancouver, you can bet there are many multiple more wealthy Chinese choosing to stay in China.
  • TJ
    Terry J.
    5 October 2018 @ 11:58
    Topical and timely as we await to see the global chessboard develop over the coming months and years. I do hope the two great powers can re-establish some trust and work as friends and not adversaries. Surely for the future of mankind, nobody, not even the warmongering DC industrial military complex that arguably controls the US, and so much of Wall Street, will risk going to war with the Middle Kingdom? I can't wait to see the second part with Kyle and Grant's discussion.
    • HJ
      Harry J.
      7 October 2018 @ 00:31
      Terry, Which ones are war mongers. I ask that because I can’t tell the difference.
    • HJ
      Harry J.
      7 October 2018 @ 00:34
      Oh just got it, you must be talking about the people that sacrifice their lives and blood to afford you the freedoms You have!
  • Nv
    Nick v.
    5 October 2018 @ 10:39
    Excellent. Thank you
  • KC
    Klendathu C.
    5 October 2018 @ 09:38
    Nice to see Kyle back on the program