Growth Insights For Asia Trades

Featuring Paul Krake

The end of the commodities supercycle has hit Asia hard, but macro strategist Paul Krake reveals the Asian countries where technological advances are unveiling golden opportunities.

Published on
26 September, 2016
Topic
Emerging markets, Technology, Geopolitics
Duration
43 minutes
Asset class
Bonds/Rates/Credit, Equities, Currencies
Rating
41

Comments

  • sm

    sam m.

    4 10 2016 04:37

    0       0

    This might be the youtube link to the james goldsmith interview mentioned by Raoul: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wwmOkaKh3-s

    I am loving the 1.25/1.5/2.0x playback multiplier but even though I am an Aussie even I had to dial this one back to 1.25x :)

  • MB

    Matthias B.

    30 9 2016 07:17

    0       0

    at this stage, it does NOT require higher metals prices for these companies to improve their financial metrics and boost FCF. higher underlying metals prices will just be a massive financial leverage when they occur.

  • MB

    Matthias B.

    30 9 2016 07:17

    1       0

    at this stage, it does NOT require higher metals prices for these companies to improve their financial metrics and boost FCF. higher underlying metals prices will just be a massive financial leverage when they occur.

  • MB

    Matthias B.

    30 9 2016 07:15

    3       0

    nicely flowing interview with some valuable info pockets. but I'd like to disagree with Paul on his commodity view. he tends to fall as well for a common but flawed narrative. the supercycle is not dead at all. it has evolved into a 2nd phase. here is why: he is right that the capex cycle has ended (peaked in 2012) and the overcapacity consequences had to be worked out through restructuring. as usual, gold/silver miners started ca 1-1.5y ahead of base miners hence their financial metrics as relatively superior. the cycle started in 2001 and ended in Dec 15/Jan 16 and metal prices/EQ prices found the historically low bottom (gold miners 2 SD below trend, broad miners on 4 decade lows). what now starts with miners is the free cash flow cycle on the back of successful restructuring. as no capex projects are planned and as it takes 10-15y to realised them, it is only a question of time for new supply deficits with ensuing higher metals prices.

  • NJ

    Nic J.

    28 9 2016 06:01

    2       1

    A very good interview with a typical Australian who tells it as it is.

  • FC

    Fractal C.

    28 9 2016 00:35

    1       2

    Alibaba is a fraud - eventually that is a $0 stock.

  • SD

    Sebastien D.

    27 9 2016 05:24

    1       0

    A radically different view on Japan than Dr. Simon Ogus, I'm not entirely convinced by the argument but see the risks as well. At least everybody agrees on India!

  • CD

    Christine D.

    27 9 2016 05:06

    2       0

    The BoJ comments are about the cons says nature of the organization . They have been dealing with deflation and QE for 25 years and they were the last to go to negative rates.

  • DG

    Daniel G.

    26 9 2016 19:51

    14       0

    Good insight into the potential for robotics to be a catalyst of demise in emerging markets. This is why RV is such a value. Thanks guys

  • RM

    Richard M.

    26 9 2016 19:34

    8       0

    Very fun and entertaining conversation between 2 good friends - really enjoyed it!

  • KB

    Kreso B.

    26 9 2016 19:24

    3       3

    Alibaba and TenCent are frauds, financed by $60billion a month of hard earned Chinese savings. Once all acquisitions of Alibaba prove failures and government takes e-business away from TenCent... Welcome to the real world. In the meantime, keep swallowing the blue pill.

  • JD

    Josh D.

    26 9 2016 18:30

    5       1

    His points about Japan not being radical made no sense to me.

  • ss

    scott s.

    26 9 2016 14:50

    6       2

    He says he's practical in the application of his ideas but this discussion provides no concrete action ideas moving forward - judge it for yourself.

  • KC

    Klendathu C.

    26 9 2016 12:41

    8       0

    Great give and take. Realvision at its finest.