Growth Insights For Asia Trades

Published on
September 26th, 2016
Topic
Technology, Emerging markets, Geopolitics
Duration
43 minutes
Asset class
Bonds/Rates/Credit, Currencies, Equities

Growth Insights For Asia Trades

The Interview ·
Featuring Paul Krake

Published on: September 26th, 2016 • Duration: 43 minutes • Asset Class: Bonds/Rates/Credit, Currencies, Equities • Topic: Technology, Emerging markets, Geopolitics

The end of the commodities supercycle has hit Asia hard, but macro strategist Paul Krake reveals the Asian countries where technological advances are unveiling golden opportunities.

Comments

  • sm
    sam m.
    4 October 2016 @ 04:37
    This might be the youtube link to the james goldsmith interview mentioned by Raoul: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wwmOkaKh3-s I am loving the 1.25/1.5/2.0x playback multiplier but even though I am an Aussie even I had to dial this one back to 1.25x :)
  • MB
    Matthias B.
    30 September 2016 @ 07:17
    at this stage, it does NOT require higher metals prices for these companies to improve their financial metrics and boost FCF. higher underlying metals prices will just be a massive financial leverage when they occur.
  • MB
    Matthias B.
    30 September 2016 @ 07:17
    at this stage, it does NOT require higher metals prices for these companies to improve their financial metrics and boost FCF. higher underlying metals prices will just be a massive financial leverage when they occur.
  • MB
    Matthias B.
    30 September 2016 @ 07:15
    nicely flowing interview with some valuable info pockets. but I'd like to disagree with Paul on his commodity view. he tends to fall as well for a common but flawed narrative. the supercycle is not dead at all. it has evolved into a 2nd phase. here is why: he is right that the capex cycle has ended (peaked in 2012) and the overcapacity consequences had to be worked out through restructuring. as usual, gold/silver miners started ca 1-1.5y ahead of base miners hence their financial metrics as relatively superior. the cycle started in 2001 and ended in Dec 15/Jan 16 and metal prices/EQ prices found the historically low bottom (gold miners 2 SD below trend, broad miners on 4 decade lows). what now starts with miners is the free cash flow cycle on the back of successful restructuring. as no capex projects are planned and as it takes 10-15y to realised them, it is only a question of time for new supply deficits with ensuing higher metals prices.
  • NJ
    Nic J.
    28 September 2016 @ 06:01
    A very good interview with a typical Australian who tells it as it is.
  • FC
    Fractal C.
    28 September 2016 @ 00:35
    Alibaba is a fraud - eventually that is a $0 stock.
  • SD
    Sebastien D.
    27 September 2016 @ 05:24
    A radically different view on Japan than Dr. Simon Ogus, I'm not entirely convinced by the argument but see the risks as well. At least everybody agrees on India!
  • CD
    Christine D.
    27 September 2016 @ 05:06
    The BoJ comments are about the cons says nature of the organization . They have been dealing with deflation and QE for 25 years and they were the last to go to negative rates.
  • DG
    Daniel G.
    26 September 2016 @ 19:51
    Good insight into the potential for robotics to be a catalyst of demise in emerging markets. This is why RV is such a value. Thanks guys
  • RM
    Richard M.
    26 September 2016 @ 19:34
    Very fun and entertaining conversation between 2 good friends - really enjoyed it!
  • KB
    Kreso B.
    26 September 2016 @ 19:24
    Alibaba and TenCent are frauds, financed by $60billion a month of hard earned Chinese savings. Once all acquisitions of Alibaba prove failures and government takes e-business away from TenCent... Welcome to the real world. In the meantime, keep swallowing the blue pill.
  • JD
    Josh D.
    26 September 2016 @ 18:30
    His points about Japan not being radical made no sense to me.
  • ss
    scott s.
    26 September 2016 @ 14:50
    He says he's practical in the application of his ideas but this discussion provides no concrete action ideas moving forward - judge it for yourself.
  • KC
    Klendathu C.
    26 September 2016 @ 12:41
    Great give and take. Realvision at its finest.

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