Incoming President Facing Recession and Policy Gridlock

Featuring Dr. Harald Malmgren

Trusted advisor and senior trade negotiator to Presidents Kennedy, Johnson, Nixon and Ford, Dr Harald Malmgren knows how to get things done in Washington.

Regardless of the US election result, Harald anticipates policy gridlock and a slow response to economic problems, with both parties in serious conflict and internally divided, while Harald also weighs in on the UK’s best options for post Brexit trade agreements.

Published on
7 November, 2016
US Economy, Politics, Globalization
61 minutes
Asset class
Bonds/Rates/Credit, Equities


  • AG

    Alexander G.

    30 11 2016 12:05

    0       0

    One of the best interviews. Thanks so much.

  • fc

    frank c.

    25 11 2016 20:55

    1       0

    he summed it up perfectly at the end "the whole thing is dumbed-down"

  • FC

    FRED C.

    17 11 2016 14:55

    1       2

    seems to speak from an establishment, elite soapbox and doesn't seem to understand the overriding tone of the country......and desire /need for change.........
    not a lot of new/actionable insights...

  • EH

    Elle H.

    16 11 2016 10:38

    2       0

    More please! One of the best!

  • DL

    Derek L.

    13 11 2016 00:58

    3       0

    Interesting...It is amazing anything gets done in Washington...

  • ma

    mary a.

    12 11 2016 03:20

    7       1

    30 or so years ago I was in a conversation with the Chief economist of Merrill Lynch. He made a comment which never left me:" Nothing gets done in Washington until there is a crisis". If I understand this interview correctly, the crisis maybe on the horizon.

  • ww

    will w.

    12 11 2016 02:27

    3       2

    @ Robert K -
    "K Street" is shorthand for the Washington D.C. LOBBYIST cancer - so named because so many of the highest-profile outfits have their offices on K Street in D.C.

  • KM

    Kevin M.

    11 11 2016 00:30

    2       7

    I respectfully find Mr. Malmgren to be a person who blusters and boasts in an unpleasant way!

  • Js

    Johns s.

    10 11 2016 20:18

    2       1

    Good one

  • IL

    Iris L.

    10 11 2016 04:35

    2       1

    Maybe i didn't quite get it, but what is the connection between the two term government changeover and 100% chance of recession? Has this just been a coincidental trend or is there some economic basis?

  • jm

    jim m.

    10 11 2016 03:47

    6       1

    Raoul does a terrific job at guiding a conversation with this tremendously knowledgeable, well spoken, Senior Aide to Kennedy, LBJ, and Ford. The key takeaway is the last five minutes of interview (though the entire interview is terrific) in which the interviewee suggests nothing will happen quickly upon the inauguration of the new President. Tax Reform is a very long arduous process. Even infrastructure stimulus will take 12 months or longer to initiate. His comments on the Fed are of course spot on. QE and Zirp were serious policy errors which had multiple negative consequences including increases in wealth and opportunity inequality leading to populism. Great, great interview.

  • RB

    Rob B.

    9 11 2016 21:45

    2       1

    Great to hear about experience from someone who has been through numerous administration changes to understand the mechanics of how these work. Even if the leadership is agreed and spot on agreed, nothing can get singed for a year, at best. Add a little political drama, which we have loads off, double the time easily.

    I didn't really get a sense of what position to take on fair trade, other than allow bilateral operation of each countries companies in borders and maybe stopped predatory pricing. Maybe that is the best end result and then let market forces do rest. I still feel labor cost arbitrage will always hurt the higest expense labor cost countries. I don't see how it can be different in getting benefit of cheaper goods and keeping high manufacturing wages???

    overall excellent interview!

  • RK

    Robert K.

    9 11 2016 19:37

    1       1

    What is K street? New term for me vs Wall st and Main st.

  • LC

    Liliana C.

    9 11 2016 06:38

    0       1

    Sorry for typo. Thank you Raoul and Harald! Valuable insights indeed!

  • LC

    Liliana C.

    9 11 2016 06:35

    3       1

    Being critical is easy. Harald I should just giving us valuable insight on how government works. It's like a scientist explaining how the solar system works.The Harald and Raoul!

  • JG

    Joe G.

    9 11 2016 03:42

    1       1

    Nice persecutive to the "election" while we go about our business of looking after our meager savings. So... plan for a recession ... ok... now beyond the resources of my family's planning horizon ... maybe cattle futures... I heard it was effective for some :-)

  • JM

    Judith M.

    9 11 2016 02:59

    1       1

    Real Vision gets better even when I think it can't be possible to do so. Thank you for this informative interview from the doyen.

  • SB

    Stewart B.

    8 11 2016 20:34

    2       1

    A great interview. We're very fortunate to have this insight into the way trade and Washington works.

  • DF

    Dominic F.

    8 11 2016 13:36

    2       1

    What a great guy. Thanks for the insights both of you.

  • HS

    Hubert S.

    8 11 2016 09:05

    4       0

    In essence he ducked the Goldsmith question. Raoul did not put this into his face - hard to to with such a likable Gentleman anyway. I took away two big things: EU to blow up sooner than people think, US infrastructure spending 6-12 months later than people think.

  • IH

    Iain H.

    8 11 2016 06:34

    7       0

    Thinking through this conversation leads you to the realisation that change, that must happen to end the west's decline, will not happen smoothly it will have to be forced. the question in my mind is, will that be a financial force or a social force or both?

  • GG

    Gerald G.

    8 11 2016 05:40

    17       6

    I am sick to death of hearing people say that we must take steps that might be uncomfortable (in this case economically irresponsible fiscal spending) because we have no choice. This is BS and akin to a criminal, who is about to go to prison, saying they have no choice but to murder the witness. Yes there is a choice... do the right thing! Instead of always looking for the painless way out of paying for their mistakes Americans need to face up to the fact that they don't deserve the standard of living and wealth that they have grown accustomed to (as a nation). Take your beating, pick yourself up and make something of yourself instead of trying to weasel your way out accepting collective responsibility for the moral decay that began in your country decades ago. Any other path will only going to make day of reckoning worse.
    P.s. listening to this guy gloat over his role in the soulless wheeling and dealing of power at the highest level of government left me with a feeling of sick despair.

  • DS

    David S.

    8 11 2016 05:04

    15       2

    Everyone wants free trade so he/she can get his car and big screen TV cheap. The same person does not want free trade because he/she would have to complete with the rest of the world for wages. You cannot eat your cake and have it too. Fair trade is impossible as everyone cheats. What to do?

  • KS

    Kathleen S.

    8 11 2016 03:07

    8       2

    Guess what , stagflation from the 1970's never ended - debt was created and now that debt has come due and here we are ....... he said it Rebeuns and Summers created finanialization which is nothing more than a ponzi scheme of fraud and you wonder why the world economy is falling apart. The system is the problem and you can not reform a broken an egg, you need to throw it out and begin again. Scary part is that next time it will not be Trump come calling because as Peter Theil says "these people aren't going away". Hillary will ignore the problems as the elites have and in four years we will have a much slicker scarier more fascist style populist leader who will win.

  • KM

    Kevin M.

    8 11 2016 02:16

    2       20

    A perfect example of EVERYTHING that's wrong with government - and he's so PROUD of it! Thank god the conversation didn't go on any longer.

  • TJ

    Tay J.

    7 11 2016 23:33

    9       1

    Yes, you two "could talk a lot longer"--and you most definitely should do so ... soon.
    'Love the historical vignettes!

  • RA

    Robert A.

    7 11 2016 22:35

    12       1

    Having warched EVERY RV interview I just used my first "bookmark" (shame on me Milton) and guess which bit I used it for? Well---"there is a 100% chance of a recession after a 2 term Presidency". In my lack of bookmark defense---I have gleaned numerous poignant ideas that I sincerely don't think I will EVER forget....and RV is the only publication/media interface that I can say that about. Amazing, Raoul and Guest both said it so matter of factly---100%---how's that for "actionable" information?

  • DC

    Dave C.

    7 11 2016 22:12

    8       3

    Fantastic interview and a great job by Raoul in steering the topics - one the I wish could have lasted a couple of hours. A peek behind a couple of curtains - not only the workings of Government but also the Deep State. The views on the state of world trade and the economy were valuable. I come away feeling enlightened but depressed. One to watch a couple of more times. Thank you real vision.

  • CD

    Charles D.

    7 11 2016 21:59

    6       2

    How this country needs him create a bridge between these devosive factions in DC...a brilliant man...truly a class act....and Pippa's dad...Bravo.

  • VK

    Viresh K.

    7 11 2016 21:13

    7       1

    One of the best.

  • LP

    Lynn P.

    7 11 2016 20:38

    2       1

    Time to have Jeffrey Snider back:

  • RW

    Raymond W.

    7 11 2016 20:24

    2       0

    You can also download PDFs of "The Trap" and "The Response" both written by Sir James Goldsmith... both deal with free trade.

  • RW

    Raymond W.

    7 11 2016 20:19

    3       0

    Regarding free trade .... please try to have Clyde Prestowitz on. He wrote a book called "The betrayal of American prosperity".

  • AG

    Alex G.

    7 11 2016 20:15

    6       0

    I remember raoul taking about how the wage stats being the easiest to manipulate. All of a sudden , there have been reports about "wages going up in the US" . What do you all think? Just headline BS o

  • BL

    Bruce L.

    7 11 2016 19:41

    3       2

    Need about 3 weeks of interview. Fantastic range of knowledge and so glad it is being shared with us.

  • Sv

    Sid v.

    7 11 2016 19:36

    4       1


  • T~

    Tshort63 ~.

    7 11 2016 17:50

    8       2

    Great interview with historical contrast as well as current fundamentals and frameworks. Definitely a person on my stranded island list.

  • BF

    Bruce F.

    7 11 2016 17:24

    11       2

    absolutely brilliant from someone who has been there & done that. will watch again

  • RM

    Richard M.

    7 11 2016 16:00

    12       2

    Wow, fascinating conversation! Love the background stories of gov't and industry that the good doctor relayed, very, very interesting. Would have liked more "forward thinking" talk about what is coming up (EU/Euro disintegration, China, Japan, US recession, financial markets, etc.) and how to maneuver through the various scenarios!

  • SS

    Sam S.

    7 11 2016 15:18

    17       2

    His previous interview and this interview are some of my all time favorites. Provides great clarity to how the political mess operates. Talks from huge experience over a lifetime of involvement. Thanks!

  • JH

    Jay H.

    7 11 2016 15:09

    14       3

    Some of the things he said, wow. His stories in the beginning were fascinating. I could just listen to him tell stories for hours. Good job, Raoul, steering the interview and you made a good point about trade agreements. It's interesting to see how the politicians have to focus on a specific "trade problem", not that it's fundamentally already changed. For anyone interested, here's a copy of The Trap (Goldsmith):

  • HJ

    Harry J.

    7 11 2016 14:59

    0       0

    Sad news

  • EK

    Emil K.

    7 11 2016 14:39

    4       0

    General political fragmentation and paralysis in the US and EU. The power sharing prevents the politicians from enacting structural reforms (not that they would anyway since promises will be broken and constituents would suffer). The inaction allows for the economy to continue crumble which in turn leads to more electoral success by the skeptics, outsiders, nationalists and radicals. And then...

  • SD

    Salvatore D.

    7 11 2016 13:35

    24       3

    I see where Pippa got her great hair and mind. Great Interview.